Betting Box Tipping Guide
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BETTING BOX
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FIXED ODDS
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2pts Hardy Eustace at 7/2 (Bet Fred) (3.15 Cheltenham) |
Class act who looks better than ever this season. |
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2pts Hide The Evidence at 7/1 (Sporting Odds) (2.00 Cheltenham) |
Out of depth last time but looks top novice hurdler. |
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1pt each-way Juveigneur at 15/2 (Coral) (4.00 Cheltenham) |
Solid handicap form and runs well at this meeting. |
You can't fail to be impressed by Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle favourite Detroit City. He is a hugely progressive sort, a big, strong grey son of Kingmambo who is on a tremendous winning run - not only over hurdles either having landed the Cesarewitch on the Flat last autumn.
This season over timber he has done nothing wrong, winning all three starts with perhaps the most significant being when beating Hardy Eustace by a length at Cheltenham in early December. On that occasion the runner-up was conceding four pounds to his rival and strictly on weights and measures
should turn the tables on Tuesday. However that race was not really run to suit either horse.
Both like a strongly-run, end-to-end gallop over two miles. They are more than likely to get it in the Champion, they didn't get it that day.
Since then Detroit City made a serious last-hurdle blunder in the Agfa Hurdle before beating Straw Bear and that may just be the one flaw in this horse. There always seems to be more in the tank with him but I just wonder whether his hurdling is going to be up to it in the red-hot pressure cooker of a Champion Hurdle - in against such fluent hurdlers as Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace. That's my only question mark over him.
There is little between Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca on the formbook and they have had some rare old battles in recent years.
When the former won his second Champion Hurdle two years go he had Brave Inca back in third before that rival went on claim the crown last year with Hardy Eustace some way back in third.
However there was a feeling throughout last season in the Dessie Hughes camp that Hardy Eustace wasn't quite at his best - in contrast he has been firing on all cylinders this term.
He was a very easy winner at Ascot first time out and then finished second to Detroit City. Perhaps most significant was his defeat of Brave Inca in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle last time.
Hardy Eustace showed all his tremendous galloping qualities there, making all the running and fighting off his rival from the final flight. It was interesting that the runner-up didn't seem to have his usual battle in him that day, just curling up on the run-in. Brave Inca has had a lot of hard races.
Hardy Eustace goes on and on and there are few horses running at the Festival with a better Cheltenham record than him. He has already won at the meeting three times, including two victories in this race, and he can complete the hat-trick on Tuesday.
Brave Inca is an admirable horse but you just wonder whether he is quite as good as he was. He has won two of his four starts this term but I felt he had every chance at the last against Hardy Eustace in the AIG, only to cry enough halfway up the run-in. He didn't seem to have quite the same fighting spirit we have come to regonise and admire in him.
Straw Bear is a horse who I feel could quite easily surprise a few people by running a really big race. The way this race is going to be run, with a strong gallop, will really suit him.
I know he has a bit to find on the formbook with Detroit City and he couldn't capitalise on his rival's final-flight blunder at Sandown, but I do like the way he travels and his jumping was much slicker at Wincanton last time.
He has every chance of running well, remember he was in front at the last in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle last season before not quite getting home. I do have a few question marks over the hill and a flat track does suit him, he was deeply impressive at Aintree last spring, but he will be there chasing them going to the last.
Of the others Iktitaf could be in the shake-up if back to his best. He beat Straw Bear at Punchestown last April and then had Brave Inca, Asian Maze and Newmill behind him at the same track earlier in the season. He probably had an excuse when well-beaten in the AIG last time, it wasn't his form and he finished tailed-off. Back to his best he has to enter the argument but it is difficult to look beyond the big three in the betting.
I am a great Hardy Eustace fan and I'm keeping faith with him.
The meeting kicks off with the Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices' Hurdle and Amaretto Rose is a warm favourite. It is a competitive race though and while she has been impressive so far, this is her stiffest test to date and we don't really know what she is going to find off the bridle yet.
At the prices I prefer Jessica Harrington's Hide The Evidence, who was outclassed in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle last time but there was no disgrace in that.
He had been very impressive on his previous start when beating Clopf and he looks a viable alternative to the favourite and can get the Irish off to a flying start.
Irish Independent Arkle favourite Fair Along has impressed me immesnely this season but I am just a little worried he is going to be taken on in the early stages by Gemini Lucy and Tidal Fury. He could be a fragile favourite but I wouldn't really want to oppose him either.
A better bet is Juveigneur in the William Hill Trophy. He has a terrific record at the Festival, winning the Kim Muir two years ago and finishing second in this race in 2006.
He has run some super races this season, finishing second in the Hennessy and third in the Welsh National. He had a spin over the hurdles the other day and at around 9/1 rates a good each-way bet.
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