Nothing Mysterious About Chances

  • By: Ben Linfoot
  • Last Updated: August 25 2012, 9:31 BST

Ben Linfoot seeks out the value from Goodwood and day four of the Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival at York.

Andrew Balding: Trains Mysterious Man


RECOMMENDED BETS:

1pt win Mysterious Man in 1430 York at 22/1 (Ladbrokes).

1pt win The Confessor in 1445 Goodwood at 12/1 (Ladbrokes).

1pt win Sense Of Purpose in 1540 York at 25/1 (non-runner).


The Betfred Ebor is all about Motivado and whether he can oblige at odds around the 4/1 mark after he sneaked into the contest thanks to the penalty he picked up following a facile win at Glorious Goodwood.

If he turns up in the same form he has a better chance than odds of 4/1 imply but it's a big if as consistency isn't his strong point and he bombed out in the Northumberland Plate and, to a lesser extent, here at York.

He might have needed the run at Newcastle but softer ground could also have been against him and the forecast showers would concern me if I were a backer.

I'm not, as he's far too short for me in a race as competitive as this and the one that sticks out at the prices is Dermot Weld's SENSE OF PURPOSE at 25/1.

Weld won the Galtres Stakes with Pale Mimosa on Thursday and Sense Of Purpose was second in the same race two years ago and has been a model of consistency ever since.

She won three times last summer including a Group Three contest at Leopardstown when giving 8lbs and a beating to Aidan O'Brien's Marksmanship.

She went off too quickly in the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster next time and has only raced twice this season, improving from her reappearance at the Curragh when beaten just half a length at Roscommon on her latest start.

That was an excellent performance, proving she's as good as ever, as she gave a lot of weight to some good three-year-olds and almost got on top of the lot of them.

More patient tactics were tried that day and that bodes well for her chances here, as she would do well to dominate this field from stall 22.

She's a classy mare who gives her all and, with Leigh Roche taking off 5lbs, I think she will be staying on better than most in what could well be soft conditions by race time.

At 25/1, she looks to have been slightly underestimated.

In the Melrose Stakes I really like the look of MYSTERIOUS MAN who should thrive now sent over a trip in excess of a mile and a half.

You can always rule out at least half of the field in this race through lack of stamina but this son of Manduro certainly won't be lacking on that score.

He's a half brother to the stayer/hurdler Erdeli while his dam is a half-sister to an Ascot Gold Cup winner and a French Leger winner.

With plenty of stamina in his pedigree I can't see anything but improvement now he tackles one mile and six and and there are bits and pieces in his form that suggest he might be well handicapped.

He won his maiden at Bath last time nicely enough, he did it cosily and he was looking around a bit in front, keeping plenty for himself.

It looks a better maiden now than it did at the time, too, as the third home Mawaqeet, beaten over three lengths by Mysterious Man, went on to finish a good second off a mark of 87 in a hot handicap at Glorious Goodwood.

Throw in some good runs behind Royal Ascot winners Estimate and Thomas Chippendale earlier in his career and he begins to look very interesting here on his handicap debut off a mark of 83.

Interesting enough to back him at 22/1 in any case.

Over at Goodwood I think it's worth backing THE CONFESSOR now he has finally got his head back in front following a long winless spell that incuded many a consistent performance.

The return to Goodwood over seven furlongs with Cathy Gannon on his back worked the oracle last time and Henry Candy sticks with the winning formula here.

He's only up 4lbs for that win and, though he didn't win by much, he did get his head in front despite having to fight for position early on after making a mess of the start.

If he can make a cleaner break this time around he has every chance of following up his victory and he's worth backing at 12/1.

  • Preview posted at 1745 GMT on 24/08/2012.