Llanarmon is a likely Lad
Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of Saturday's Betfred Goals Galore Handicap at Haydock and picks out the key stats
Only one favourite has won in this period but, since Dunaskin sprung a 50/1 surprise in 2004, winners had been to the fore of the market until Robin Hoods Bay scored at 25/1 12 months ago.
Ed Vaughan's charge was the fifth successive successful Newmarket raider and the last eight runnings have all gone to trainers from the south.
They are well represented again but it's rather surprising that there's only one three-year-old in the line-up and Truth Or Dare has struggled in the main this season, bar a Listed third at Newmarket, although his struggles have seen the handicapper relent.
The assessor has also given Lahaag a chance and his chances will be greatly improved if the forecast showers hit the track as he has shown his best form on a soft surface while his latest run at Royal Ascot suggested that he could be on the way back.
His trainer last won this race in 2011 with the prize going to Sir Michael Stoute one year on and Stoute is represented by Rye House who started the season in such promising fashion.
The four-year-old has been off the track since flopping at Newmarket in May but he had gone into many a notebook when returning a beaten favourite at York on his seasonal reappearance when finding trouble in running.
Unlike that pair, Elhaame may not appreciate any rain but he did finish in front of Lahaag and Groundbreaking in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes and has achieved both career victories over this shorter trip of 10 furlongs as well as finishing a close second over C&D.
Queensbury Rules is often well supported and shaped promisingly on his first attempt over this distance at York. He may well be getting his act together but it may be worth taking a chance with Llanarmon Lad.
He is versatile with regards to underfoot conditions and has improved in leaps and bounds since joining Brian Ellison. He's suitably lightly raced and comes here on the back of a good run in July and may be able to land a rare win for the north.
- Winners have been aged three (5), four (3), five and six.
- Winners have been priced between 13/8 and 50/1 with eight in single figures; two favourites have been successful with a further three placed.
- Three winners have been drawn 10 or higher and seven 8 or lower.
- Winners have carried between 8-6 and 9-11 with six between 8-10 and 9-2.
- Winners have been rated between 83 and 103 with eight rated 90 or higher.
- Five winners (but only one of the last six) finished first or second on their previous start.
- Seven winners had won during the current season.
- Eight winners had previously won a handicap.
- Three winners ran at Royal Ascot (including when held at York).
- Seven winners had run no more than 10 times; the exceptions had had 20, 26 and 29 starts.
- Nine winners had run no more than five times during the current season.
- Seven of the last eight winners had their previous start in July, the exceptions ran in March and August.