Value Bet: Could it be Magic?
Matt Brocklebank steps in for Ben Linfoot in the Value Bet chair and has a big-price selection in the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury.
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The Darley Irish Oaks is Saturday's top-class highlight at the Curragh but it's not a race that sets the pulse racing with regard to this column.
It's no surprise to see Tarfasha has shuffled to the head of the market following the defection of Taghrooda but she never really looked like getting near her at Epsom and I wouldn't be rushing to back Dermot Weld's filly at 9/4.
Bracelet dug deep to beat Lustrous in the Ribblesdale and big things were obviously expected of Marvellous in the Oaks, but Joseph O'Brien deserts both in favour of Coronation Stakes sixth Tapestry, and that simply muddies the waters further.
Like Tapestry, Weld's second string Vote Often takes a marked step up in trip and she could be the one to outrun her odds.
She's always been held in high regard and it's worth noting that there's a hurdle winner in her pedigree, sugesting the new trip might not be too much of an issue, but she's not quite a big enough price to lure me in against proven Group One fillies.
Tiggy Wiggy leaps off the page ahead of the Weatherbys Super Sprint (3.50) at Newbury and it could be argued Richard Hannon’s filly is worthy of being a touch shorter in the betting.
Rated 104 after two cracking efforts in Listed company, including a Sandown win, followed by last month’s Group Two Queen Mary second at Royal Ascot, she is the class act on show in a race with which her trainer’s name has become synonymous.
Hannon snr won the valuable pot on seven occasions between the race’s inception in 1991 and 2007, while he went close on several other occasions, including with neck second Lilbourne Lass 12 months ago.
The stable has four other chances in this year’s renewal and Kieran O’Neill’s mount Parsley is dangerously weighted under 8st 1lb following her run at Newmarket’s July Festival.
She was ultimately well beaten at HQ but showed up well for a long way in the Group Two Duchess of Cambridge and she’ll be suited by a drop back to five furlongs.
That also applies to the Richard Fahey-trained Diamond Creek, behind Parsley in the Duchess, and there's a strong impression he's better judged on his previous victory at Musselburgh.
He has already been nibbled in the market and it's not hard to see why, while at single-figure odds Parsley clearly hasn't been missed and I’m more interested into the 20/1 (general) available for Charlie Hills’ runner Magical Memory.
This is a horse who looks to have been brought along steadily with this race in mind all year, ever since his promising debut run over the course in April.
From 32 runners, that maiden has produced eight subsequent winners, and that’s not the only piece of form that makes Magical Memory worthy of support.
His next outing didn’t go quite to plan when drawn out wide before missing the break at Chester but he has since finished second to Ivawood and won a maiden over six furlongs at Leicester.
The video replay of the Sandown second to July Stakes winner and ante-post 2000 Guineas favourite Ivawood is well worth another look.
George Baker held onto the strong-travelling Magical Memory near the back of the field before unleashing him around the outside a furlong out and he very briefly took the lead.
Ivawood pulled away close home but it was a very promising performance from the Hills horse, who made no mistake next time.
He only scored by a neck but seemed to have plenty in reserve at the line and, most importantly, once again shaped like a sprinter who wouldn’t show his very best until delivered late off a searingly quick gallop.
That’s exactly what the son of Zebedee is going to be presented with at Newbury and I wouldn’t be at all shocked to see him to prove considerably better than his official mark of 88 in due course.
The forecast rain might not be ideal but his half-sister Faleh was successful on good to soft ground at Doncaster and, having already won over further, a touch more emphasis on stamina wouldn't be classed as a negative.
1pt e.w Magical Memory in 3.50 Newbury at 20/1
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +280.81pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).