Mal Boyle's Placepot Picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: September 2 2015, 9:05 BST

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his selections for this afternoon's card at Bath.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of How To Win at the Tote Placepot and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis.

He'll assess the next day's leading meeting the previous afternoon/evening before posting selections the following morning, usually by 1000 BST.

Bath Selections

Race 1 (2.20pm): 7 (Outrage), 1 (Doc Charm) & 3 (King Crimson)
Race 2 (2.50pm): 6 (Seebeedee) & 3 (Kazziana)
Race 3 (3.20pm): 9 (Jaganory), 5, (Silverrica) & 1 (Swendab)
Race 4 (3.50pm): 3 (Shaden) & 4 (Ring Of Truth)
Race 5 (4.20pm): 10 (Ayla's Emperor), 7 (Elle Rebelle) & 6 (Suni Dancer)
Race 6 (4.50pm): 6 (Camely Dawn), 3 (Pink Diamond) & 5 (Bernisdale)

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2014: £250.00 (7 favourites - 1 winners - 1 placed - 7 unplaced)

2.20 We have endured a few sharp showers just down the road from Bath today (Tuesday) whereby the going should not be too bad, certainly by comparison to Epsom of late. Upwards and onward in positive mode by informing that six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum weight of 8-13, statistics which go against the chance of Toni's A Star this time around. If the ground dries out significantly, I could give OUTRAGE a chance in receipt of weight from all six rivals in the 'superior' sector of the handicap. Others worth a second glance include DOC CHARM (trainer Karl Burke is a rare visitor) and course and distance winner KING CRIMSON who is unbeaten at the venue, albeit via just one previous assignment (see stats below).

'Favourite factor': Seven renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged, whilst one one of the last eight marker leaders has finished in the frame.

Bath record of runners in the opening race:

Lady Gemini (1 run - placed)
King Crimson (1 run - won)
Princess Tansy (1 run - unplaced)
Honcho (1 run - unplaced)

2.50 Three-year-olds have secured eight of the nine available toteplacepot positions, albeit vintage representatives have been responsible for the thick end of 80% of the total number of runners thus far. The trend will continue this year following the declaration of eight three-year-olds (no older runners in the line up - Lisamour is on the missing list), the pick of which should prove to be KAZZIANA, SEEBEEDEE and DEVONSHIRE PLACE.

'Favourite factor': The first two market leaders had secured silver medals alongside toteplacepot positions, before the 2013 odds on (5/6) market leader could only finished third of four in a ‘win only‘ contest. Last year's 'jolly' suffered a similar fate from a toteplacepot perspective when snaring bronze in a seven runner 'short field' contest.

Bath record of runners in the second race:

Seebeedee (2 runs - 1 win & 1 unplaced)

3.20 SWENDAB is a regular raider as you can see by the stats on offer below and with John O'Shea among the winners of late, the top weight cannot be discarded at the overnight stage. SILVERRICA has contested eight of her last 10 races at this venue, with the five-year-old also expected to figure prominently. JAGANORY receives plenty of weight and the Dylan Thomas gelding should represent the three-year-old vintage to decent effect.

'Favourite factor': This is a new race on the Bath card.

Bath record of runners in the third race:

Swendab (14 runs - 1 win - 1 placed - 12 unplaced)
You're My Cracker (2 runs - both placed)
Mambo Spirit (13 runs - 3 wins - 1 placed - 9 unplaced)
Spellmaker (3 runs - 1 win - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Silverrica (15 runs - 2 wins - 5 placed - 8 unplaced)
Dusty Blue (1 run - won)
Babyfact (2 runs - 1 win & 1 unplaced)
Jaganory (1 run - unplaced)

3.50 Lady Cecil has only saddled 17 runners since the end of June which is something of a surprise and when you consider that the yard has only sent out six winners at a strike rate of 10.3% since the end of March, punters might lack confidence when assessing the chance of SHADEN. That said, the Kodiac filly is responsible for two of those successes via just three assignments during the study period. Considering the form of her stable companions, SHADEN warrants plenty of respect accordingly. If this race goes against the Cecil stable again, fellow beaten favourites RING OF TRUTH and SHOW ME AGAIN should prove to be the culprits between them.

'Favourite factor': This is another new event on the Bath programme.

Bath record of runners in the fourth race:

Silver Winds (1 run - unplaced)

4.20 Horses carrying 9-1 or less have secured six of the 11 available toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three of the four winners at 16/1, 10/1 and 4/1. It's good to note that Daniel Muscutt has been retained aboard course winner AYLA'S EMPEROR after last week's win for which the six-year-old escapes a penalty. Others down towards the foot of the handicap to respect include ELLE REBELLE and (possibly) CANTANKEROUS. If the weight trend is breached, beaten favourite SUNI DANCER could prove to be the joker in the pack .

'Favourite factor': Three of the four favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (4/1) gold medallist.

Bath record of runners in the fifth race:

Captain Oats (5 runs - 1 win - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Repechage (1 run - unplaced)
Elle Rebelle (2 runs - No wins - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Cantankerous (1 run - unplaced)
Southern Cross ( 1 run - unplaced)
Ayla's Emperor (1 run - won)

4.50 Four-year-olds have secured four of the nine available toteplacepot positions thus far (stats include two winners at 10/3 & 2/1 having only been represented in three renewals) via less than 31% of the total number of runners (8/26). CAMELY DAWN, PINK DIAMOND and CAPTAIN GEORGE are this year‘s relevant raiders and the trio is listed in order of preference at the overnight stage. PETRIFY is the other horse to consider from my viewpoint.

'Favourite factor': The first two (10/3 & 2/1) favourites obliged before the last pair of market leaders both finished third, albeit they both missed out on toteplacepot positions due to a lack of runners in the relevant contests.

Bath record of runners in the toteplacepot finale:

Lucky Diva (19 runs - 2 wins - 4 placed - 13 unplaced)
Pink Diamond (1 run - unplaced)
Bernisdale (1 run - unplaced)
Camely Dawn (6 runs - No wins - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
Josie's Dream (9 runs - No wins - 4 placed - 5 unplaced)
Petrify (1 run - placed)
Iguacu (5 runs - 1 win - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Stafford Charlie (2 runs - both unplaced)

Course and distance winners in toteplacepot races at Bath on Wednesday:

1/1 - King Crimson - 2.20
1/2 - Seebeedee - 2.50
3/11 - Mambo Spirit - 3.20
1/3 - Spellmaker - 3.20
2/8 - Silverrica - 3.20
1/1 - Dusty Blue - 3.20
1/2 - Babyfact - 3.20

** = joint favourite; *** = co-favourite (where applicable).

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Bath card on Wednesday

6 - Tony Carroll
3 - David Evans
3 - Nikki Evans
3 - John O'Shea
3 - Malcolm Saunders
2 - Mick Channon
2 - Robert Cowell
2 - John Flint
2 - Jo Hughes
2 - Daniel Kubler
2 - Bernard Llewellyn
2 - Tony Newcombe
2 - Richard Price
2 - John Ryan
2 - Ian Williams
1 - Charlie Appleby
1 - Michael Attwater
1 - George Baker
1 - Andrew Balding
1 - Ralph Beckett
1 - Michael Bell
1 - Edward Bevan
1 - Michael Blake
1 - Mark Brisbourne
1 - Karl Burke
1 - Lady Cecil
1 - Roger Charlton
1 - Paul Cole
1 - David Dennis
1 - Harry Dunlop
1 - Pam Ford
1 - Richard Ford
1 - Warren Greatrex
1 - Richard Hannon
1 - Charlie Hills
1 - Eve Johnson Houghton
1 - Stuart Howe
1 - Stuart Kittow
1 - Daniel Mark Loughnane
1 - Christopher Mason
1 - William Muir
1 - Rod Millman
1 - Brendan Powell
1 - David Simcock
1 - Henry Spiller
1 - Ollie Stevens
1 - Sir Michael Stoute
1 - Bill Turner
1 - Dai Williams

72 declared runners

2015 average toteplacepot returns thus far (996 meetings):
Four meetings with no favourites in the frame: £924.37 (4)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,543.07 (23)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,058.73 (96)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £479.08 (266)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £293.29 (324)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £69.97 (210)
6 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £18.96 (72)
One meeting was abandoned after two races - left out of these calculations

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Flat venues:
Total Flat meetings (£401.40 - 431 meetings)
Ascot (£637.05 - 13 meetings)
Ayr (£621.48 - 12 meetings)
Bath (£136.45 - 16 meetings)
Beverley (£418.55 - 17 meetings)
Brighton (£1,201.32 - 17 meetings)
Carlisle (£202.39 - 11 meetings)
Catterick (£362.70 - 12 meetings)
Chepstow (£84.58 - 13 meetings)
Chester (£184.89 - 12 meetings)
Doncaster (£367.90 - 17 meetings)
Epsom (£808.58 - 7 meetings)
Ffos Las (£333.87 - 6 meetings)
Goodwood (£195.49 - 16 meetings)
Hamilton (£353.40 - 14 meetings)
Haydock (£422.83 - 17 meetings)
Leicester (£335.73 - 16 meetings)
Lingfield (£337.58 - 7 meetings)
Musselburgh (£489.87 - 13 meetings)
Newbury (£1,346.82 - 14 meetings)
Newcastle (£447.54 - 14 meetings)
Newmarket (July) - £428.33 - 20 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile) - £136.75 - 9 meetings)
Nottingham (£313.36 - 18 meetings)
Pontefract (£468.58 - 12 meetings)
Redcar (£115.84 - 12 meetings)
Ripon (£170.08 - 14 meetings)
Salisbury (£86.70 - 12 meetings)
Sandown (£140.94 - 14 meetings)
Thirsk (£178.66 - 15 meetings)
Wetherby (£19.10 - 4 meetings)
Windsor (£154.88 - 23 meetings)
Yarmouth (£32.30 - 1 meeting)
York (£1,055.31 - 14 meetings)

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£281.85 - 203 meetings)
Chelmsford (£323.49 - 33 meetings)
Kempton (£182.67 - 34 meetings)
Lingfield (£455.86 - 46 meetings)
Southwell (£413.50 - 28 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£172.04 - 62 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£381.14 - 350 meetings)
Aintree (£331.40 - 5 meetings)
Ascot (£264.97 - 3 meetings)
Ayr (£413.90 - 9 meetings)
Bangor (£1,324.18 - 9 meetings)
Carlisle (£122.35 - 6 meetings)
Cartmel (£310.57 - 7 meetings)
Catterick (£95.21 - 6 meetings)
Cheltenham (£257.30 - 9 meetings)
Chepstow (£318.67 - 9 meetings)
Doncaster (£161.87 - 6 meetings)
Exeter (£419.99 - 10 meetings)
Fakenham (£215.32 - 9 meetings)
Ffos Las (£132.92 - 10 meetings)
Fontwell (£253.17 - 12 meetings)
Haydock (£469.17 - 4 meetings)
Hexham (£181.43 - 9 meetings)
Huntingdon (£113.25 - 8 meetings)
Kelso (£113.90 - 7 meetings)
Kempton (£70.29 - 8 meetings)
Leicester (£82.10 - 5 meetings)
Lingfield (£85.65 - 2 meetings)
Ludlow (£131.99 - 9 meetings)
Market Rasen (£241.93 - 14 meetings)
Musselburgh (£98.40 - 6 meetings)
Newbury (£153.73 - 7 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£2,804.49 - 13 meetings)
Newcastle (£201.99 - 7 meetings)
Perth (£147.14 - 10 meetings)
Plumpton (£404.27 - 10 meetings)
Sandown (£321.09 - 6 meetings)
Sedgefield (£93.45 - 11 meetings)
Southwell (£494.00 - 13 meetings)
Stratford (£442.34 - 14 meetings)
Taunton (£248.98 - 12 meetings)
Towcester (£80.08 - 7 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£515.58 - 15 meetings)
Warwick (£1,135.76 - 10 meetings)
Wetherby (£666.03 - 8 meetings)
Wincanton (£575.61 - 10 meetings)
Worcester (£178.81 - 14 meetings)

Mixed Turf & A/W Flat meeting:
Lingfield (£446.46 - 11 meetings)

Mixed NH & Flat meeting:
Haydock (£1551.00 - 1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2015 stands at £388.09 (996 meetings) up to and including Sunday August 30