Value Bet: Oui Monsieur

  • By: Matt Brocklebank
  • Last Updated: May 16 2014, 17:40 BST

Matt Brocklebank is in the Value Bet hot-seat for Saturday's action and has each-way selections at Newbury and Newmarket.

Franny Norton: Monsieur Chevalier is his only ride on the card at Newbury
Franny Norton: Monsieur Chevalier is his only ride on the card at Newbury

The JLT Lockinge Stakes at Newbury has the potential to be a brilliant Group One spectacle, with the returning QEII hero Olympic Glory locking horns with Aidan O'Brien's latest American recruit Verrazano.

Throw in Top Notch Tonto and Chopin and we clearly have a race to savour.

At the prices, Andrew Balding's thriving Tullius stands out following a much-improved performance when thrashing the reopposing Montiridge at Sandown but the soft ground was a major factor that day and I simply don't see him beating Olympic Glory at Newbury.

The Astronomical 10 Million Scoop6 Today Handicap (2.40) is a far more appealing betting medium, with 14 runners set to contest the valuable seven-furlong contest.

It's a wide-open field but it wouldn't be a great surprise to see Indignant heavily supported.

Richard Hannon's filly filled the runner-up spot in the last race on this very card 12 months ago before going on to win a nice pot at Newmarket in July.

The yard is in top shape and she'll be primed for a big run first time out, but whether she has much in hand off a mark of 98 has to come into question.

One who makes greater appeal in that regard is former Hannon inmate MONSIEUR CHEVALIER.

He lost his way a bit after a brilliant two-year-old campaign and has only won once for the P J O'Gorman camp, but that victory came off a mark of 94 last April and he showed more than enough later in 2013 to suggest the fire still burns within.

What makes him so attractive here is the fact he has now dropped right down to a mark of 89 and lines up on the back of a seriously eye-catching comeback run over an inadequate six furlongs at Windsor last month.

He was well off the pace at halfway but made up ground late on under a considerate Jamie Spencer ride and was only beaten three and a half lengths at the finish.

The fifth has won since to give the form a timely boost and odds of 12/1 with Ladbrokes appear to underestimate his chances, with Franny Norton coming in for the ride.

Over at Newmarket the Sprint Trophy (3.30) is a fantastic race to get stuck into and DEEDS NOT WORDS is worth an each-way interest at a general 12/1.

He gained lots of experience at two, which should stand him in good stead here, and could yet prove up to winning off a mark of 92.

He shaped like he was badly in need of the outing when third first time out at Thirsk last month but still ran really well in the circumstances.

The first, second and fourth have all gone on and won since and Mick Channon's charge looks tremendous value here up against some less exposed types from what may be deemed more fashionable yards.


1pt each-way Monsieur Chevalier in 2.40 Newbury at 12/1

1pt each-way Deeds Not Words in 3.30 Newmarket at 12/1

Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +266.81pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).