Don't Think outside the box
Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of Saturday's EBF Stallions & TBA Mares' 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Finale at Newbury and picks out the key statistics.
- Six year olds have won seven renewals and five year olds three.
- Winners have carried between 10-4 and 11-3 with one successful from out of the handicap.
- Winners have been rated between 100 and 130 with five of the last six 120+.
- Winners have been priced between 10/3 and 25/1 with six returned in single figures.
- Two favourites have been successful, with a further four placed.
- Nine winners had finished in the first four on their preceding start with five successful.
- Nine winners had their previous start between 19th February and 8th March.
- Seven winners had run no more than five times over hurdles.
- All winners had won at least once over hurdles.
- Three winners were making their handicap debuts, five winners had been placed or better in a handicap.
- Nine winners had won over at least two miles three furlongs.
- All winners had run in a NHF race with seven successful.
Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last four winners and four of the last seven but they have won at 25/1, 12s, 14s and 6s and he's also been responsible for the beaten favourite in three of those renewals.
At least, he just has the one runner to concentrate on this time around and Free Thinking looks sure to go well on her handicap bow with her latest effort suggesting that this trip holds no fears.
Alan King's pair and Joanne One are among others to consider while Oliver Sherwood won back-to-back renewals of this race in 2008/09 which ensures that Luci Di Mezzanotte is worth more than a second glance.