Well can claim Moore glory
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on Welsh National day at Chepstow and he's got two selections for the card.
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Tidal Bay is the key horse in the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on Saturday, and the handicapper has given him a real chance after dropping him 8lb since the Betfair Chase.
Racing off a mark of 163, he's 3lb lower than when he chased home Bobs Worth in last year's Hennessy and he hasn't raced in handicap company since, though he has won the Lexus Chase and the bet365 Hurdle at Wetherby.
In hindsight he had a very tough task trying to keep up with the best two staying chasers this season, Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti, at Haydock last time and despite having to give the rest of the field plenty of weight 14/1 is well worth considering.
Testing ground and three miles and five furlongs is ideal for him and he made a mockery of his handicap mark of 154 the last time he ran under such conditions - in the 2012 bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown.
However, some very talented, improving stayers are getting almost two stone from him in Wales and I can't get away from the claims of one in particular, Gary Moore's WELL REFRESHED at 8/1.
It's in my nature to take on market leaders in this sort of contest but picking holes in his chances isn't easy and there may well be some juice in his price yet.
His run in the London National at Sandown last time was a real eye catcher, as he made mistake after mistake yet finished just two lengths off the winner There's No Panic.
The performance suggested that if he can put in a decent round of jumping he's very well handicapped off a mark of 139 and he can do so now tackling heavy ground for the first time this season.
When he racked up his winning sequence last campaign he improved from a handicap mark of 108 to one of 142 after three wins in soft or heavy ground, and the signs are he can resume that upward curve now we've had plenty of rain.
Thanks to the presence of Tidal Bay at the head of the weights he'll carry just 10st 2lb and with half of the field out of the handicap he has a fine chance of winning another big race for the Moores in the space of two days.
Vintage Star and Tour Des Champs are dangers off similar light weights with conditions to suit, but neither appeal as much as Well Refreshed and with 8/1 available generally we'll rely on the one selection and double our stake on him.
Later on the card David Pipe's POOLE MASTER looks worth chancing in the coral.co.uk Money Back If Your Horse Falls Handicap Chase at 12/1.
The eight-year-old was a talented novice hurdler but has been largely disappointing since then, his losing streak now stretching back ten races.
However, he was placed in a two and a half mile handicap hurdle at Haydock off a mark of 139, and, now 9lb lower than that over fences, he could be very well handicapped.
He had a tough task on his seasonal reappearance, tackling the Aintree fences for the first time when seventh in the Grand Sefton, but he's interesting now back over conventional obstacles with first-time blinkers applied.
Heavy ground is unlikely to be an issue for him and at 12/1 he's worth a small bet.
2pts win Well Refreshed in 2.35 Chepstow at 8/1
1pt win Poole Master in 3.10 Chepstow at 12/1
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: 267.81pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is 137.50pts to recommended stakes in 2013.