Take Target to land big pot
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value from Saturday's card at Cheltenham and he's backing 11/2 and 16/1 chances.
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It's a big few weeks for the Tizzards with Cue Card's bid for the King George coming up but first there is the small matter of the big December handicap at Cheltenham and their SEW ON TARGET has solid claims at 16/1.
The market for the Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup is dominated by those who contested the Paddy Power (with the exception of Grandioso) but the handicapper has had his say with both Johns Spirit and Colour Squadron and I can't bring myself to side with either at 5/1.
Attaglance is a different matter. He effectively races off the same mark given he was 6lb out of the handicap last time and the slightly stiffer New Course (the track he won the Martin Pipe on over hurdles) will suit him, as will the good ground.
However, he was outpaced in the Paddy Power before staying on and at 8/1 he's just not quite big enough to get involved.
At twice those odds Sew On Target appeals, as he did much the best of those who raced up with the pace in the two-mile chase won by Anay Turge at the Paddy Power meeting.
He jumped efficiently and had the engine to keep going, traits that will serve him well on Saturday and the return to this trip could help him too, as he just didn't quite have the legs of an out-and-out two miler last time.
Still, that was a very good effort and so was his previous run when beaten by none other than Johns Spirit at the Showcase Meeting, over this trip on similar ground.
A 16lb pull at the weights for just a four-and-a-half length beating could well see him reverse that form, and, certainly, at the prices, he's the one to be on.
Admittedly the race has cut up and it could well be dominated by the market principals. But if there is one of the outsiders that could outrun his odds it could well be Sew On Target, who always seems to reserve his best efforts for Cheltenham.
A small each-way bet is advised.
Value options are thin on the ground elsewhere on the card but I do think there could be some juice in MILAN BOUND'S price with 11/2 generally available about him for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (13.50).
He won very easily stepped up in trip at Uttoxeter last time and his earlier Carlisle win is working out well. The third home Blakemount won easily at Wetherby next time before being beaten by smart duo Ballyalton (won at Cheltenham Friday) and Oscar Rock at Newcastle.
Kings Palace sets a good standard as his October thrashing of Creepy and Monbeg Dude looks better and better, but Milan Bound looks a serious rival and I expected their prices to be closer together.
1pt e.w Sew On Target in 2.25 Cheltenham at 16/1
1pt win Milan Bound in 1.50 Cheltenham at 11/2
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +265.81pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +133.50pts to recommended stakes in 2013.