Chance Baby to defy absence
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value at Aintree on Saturday in both the Becher and Grand Sefton Chases run over the National fences.
- Related Content
Sprinter Sacre's absence from the BetVictor Tingle Creek has made the race a more competitive but less appealing prospect and Saturday's best action comes over the National fences at Aintree.
The feature is the Betfred Becher Handicap Chase and despite a long absence of 959 days, there is plenty to like about the chances of Nigel Twiston-Davies' BABY RUN.
Twiston-Davies has won the Becher Chase five times previously, including two of the last three renewals with Hello Bud, and this former winner of the Fox Hunters' over these unique fences looks overpriced.
His time off the track is obviously a worry, but on the plus side he's always gone extremely well fresh and his trainer is happy with his well being. Now 13, his advancing years are also of little concern in a race where experience counts for a lot (indeed, Hello Bud was 14 when he won it last year).
Another positive is his prominent style of racing and bold jumping, a combination that works well over the National fences given you tend to stay out of the trouble that can often be the scourge of a hold-up horse around here.
If the forecast rain comes it will be no concern to this fellow, his stable has just started to fire again in the last week and, all in all, 28/1 looks a very fair price indeed.
With 24 runners (I can't remember a more competitive Becher) I want another one onside and the one that appeals the most is Philip Hobbs' CHANCE DU ROY at 20s.
He looks a very well-handicapped horse given he's dropped 15lb to 135 in his last four races and though there is a reason for that, his spin around these fences in the Topham two starts ago wasn't too bad (ninth of 29).
That suggests that these fences can reignite his spark now he has dropped to his lowest mark since he won at Chepstow in January 2011 and this is a track he likes given he was runner-up to Always Waining in the 2012 Topham (off 148).
His last win came at Haydock in March of last year off a rating of 143, so he clearly has a very good chance at the weights.
The major question mark with him is the trip given the only time he's raced over three miles was when he flopped at Cheltenham on his last start in April.
However, I'm inclined to think that Prestbury Park is just not his track and the trip could actually help him when looking at how outpaced he has been in recent outings.
The last race on the card is again run over the National fences as 16 do battle for the Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase.
As we're just one runner away from reduced place terms a small win bet is suggested on Sue Smith's GANSEY at 12/1.
He was second to Little Josh in this race last year off a 3lb higher mark and the pair were 19 lengths clear of the rest.
The handicapper has dropped him 4lb following his seasonal reappearance over the conventional fences here in October and he should come on plenty for that, while any rain would be a benefit to him.
There are very few in this contest with experience over the National fences but Gansey is one of them and a big run is expected.
1pt win Chance Du Roy in 2.05 Aintree at 20/1 (General)
1pt win Baby Run in 2.05 Aintree at 28/1 (BetVictor)
1pt win Gansey in 3.15 Aintree at 12/1 (General)
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +248.81pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +116.50pts to recommended stakes in 2013.