Embrace the Recession
Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of Saturday's Betfred Cesarewitch at Newmarket and picks out the key statistics.
- Winners have been aged 3, 4 (two), 5, 6 (three), 8 (two) and 11.
- Winners have carried between 7-13 and 9-10 with five between 7-13 and 8-11.
- Winners have been rated between 83 and 107 with five between 92 and 98.
- Seven winners had been drawn between 1 & 12 with four between 1 & 4.
- Seven winners were returned between 9/2 and 16/1 with two favourites successful.
- Seven winners finished in the first four on their previous outing under either code.
- Eight winners had won a class 3 handicap or above over 1m 6f - five of the last six had won a class 2 handicap over 2 miles.
- Nine winners had raced between 2 and 7 times during the current season; none had raced more.
- Five winners (including one seasonal debutant) had failed to win a race during the current season.
- Eight winners had won a race with a field of 14 runners or more (under either code).
- All of the winners had had at least 10 career starts.
Four renewals have gone to trainer's more readily associated with NH racing including all three winners that hadn't previously scored over two miles on the Flat.
Three of the last five winners had previously run in the Cesarewitch (finishing 1st, 2nd and 7th) whilst three of the last five winners had contested the Brown Jack Stakes at Ascot earlier in the season where they finished 2/1/5.
Three winners had run in the Ascot Stakes and three in the Northumberland Plate. Two winners were apprentice ridden.
The draw has had a remarkable influence on this contest which is bad news for supporters of Tiger Cliff and Lieutenant Miller although Never Can Tell did overcome a berth in 36 in 2011 so it is far from impossible.
The field can't be narrowed down on the ground of age but there are only a handful of runners with winning form over two miles in a class two handicap although none appear to be that well drawn.
Domination, the winner of last year's Cesarewitch Trial, looks sure to go well but it may be worth taking a chance with the well drawn Recession Proof. John Quinn sent out Countrywide Flame to finish second 12 months ago and he could have a live contender in this well drawn seven year old who showed a smart level of form over hurdles prior to missing 2012.
He doesn't have winning form in class two company but hasn't had many opportunities and did dead-heat in a class three contest over one mile seven on the July course in 2009. Apprentices have enjoyed notable success in this race and he didn't shape at all badly on his reappearance at York.