Secret has great chance
Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of Saturday's Ladbrokes St Leger and picks out the key statistical trends.
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- Winners have been priced between 10/11 and 25/1 with four favourites successful.
- Three winners were unraced as juveniles. Of the remainder, six were successful at trips over seven furlongs or beyond and only two made their debut before August.
- Eight winners had raced either four of five times in the current season (exceptions three and seven).
- Nine winners had won a race during the current season, only one won more than twice.
- All of the winners finished in the first three on their preceding start.
- All of the winners had finished in the first two over 12f.
- All of the winners had finished in the first three in a Group race.
- Seven winners contested a Derby in Europe.
- John Gosden (3), Saeed bin Suroor (2) and Aidan O'Brien (2) have won eight renewals.
Five winners have come via the Great Voltigeur which is represented this year by Foundry (second), Secret Number (third) and Cap O'Rushes (sixth).
The former falls down on a lack of experience but Secret Number is one of few horses in the line-up to have had a typical number of runs during the season and to have finished in the first three last time - a key statistic that a number of this year's contenders fall down on - and he did contest a Derby earlier in the year when finishing third in the UAE version.
He hasn't finished in the first two in a Group Race or over 12f and there are certainly doubts about his stamina, not least on paper, but he was only half a length off Foundry at York and, in a race where the last six favourites have been turned over, he is worth chancing at a price for a yard that has a good record in the race.