O'Brien has it all sewn up
Some decent racing at Sandown, Beverley and Chester this Saturday, but this week I thought I'd take a trip over to Ireland and take a look at the Moyglare Stud Stakes on Sunday.
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There are not many Group Ones run over this 7f trip so it gives horses that are suited by this specialist distance the chance grab some decent prize money as well as some black type.
Sunday's race will give us further clues about next year's leading 1,000 Guineas fancy, Kiyoshi, who is already as short as 7/1 for next season's Classic after impressive wins at Goodwood and Royal Ascot.
Another impressive win here will surely see her price for that race shorten again.
Of the others, it's interesting that Dermot Weld pitches his Carla Bianca in at this level after just one run, which suggests she's come on again, but it's also probably something to do with her being owned by the Moyglare Stud.
Clive Brittain sends over Rizeena, who won this season's Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, but all her wins have been over 5f so will need to prove herself over this 7f trip.
So that really leaves the Aidan O'Brien-trained runners - Perhaps, Wonderfully and Tapestry. The fact the Ballydoyle handler has won this race four times since 2003 and twice in the last 3 years.
A case can be made for them all but three of his four recent winners in the race have been with his main hope and favourite so the safest call looks to be to side with TAPESTRY.
This 2 year-old is unbeaten from two runs, beating Perhaps by 1 ¾ lengths last time too, and has won both his races here at the track, with the latest of those being over this 7f trip too.
She holds entries in the Shadwell Fillies' Mile and the Cheveley Park Stakes, so you can expect to see her running in one of those races after here.
Moyglare Stud Key Trends
11/11 - Placed in the top 3 in their last race
11/11 - Won over 6f or 7f previously
10/11 - Ran within the last 4 weeks
9/11 - Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/11 - Won between 1-2 times previously
9/11 - Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/11 - Priced 10/1 or shorter in the market
8/11 - Favourites placed
7/11 - Drawn in stall 7 or higher
7/11 - Won from outside the top three in the market
7/11 - Raced at the Curragh last time out
7/11 - Won over 7f previously
6/11 - Had won at the Curragh previously
6/11 - Won their last race
5/11 - Won a Group race previously
4/11 - Favourites
4/11 - Trained by Aidan O'Brien
2/11 - Trained by Kevin Prendergast
2/11 - Ridden by Seamie Heffernan
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
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