Cracking value in the Jorvik
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on the final day of York's Dante meeting and he's backing 16/1 and 20/1 chances.
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Another day at York, another downpour, and this time it looks like the wet stuff really has got into the ground.
So, horses that go well in the soft should be at an advantage on the final day at the Dante meeting and I'm drawn to a couple in the Jorvik Handicap at 2.15.
And, on another point, if we've learned anything at York this week it's that it's a track that can throw up a course specialist. Despite being flat and fair and without the idiosyncrasies that Chester, Epsom, Goodwood and plenty of other courses in this green and pleasant land have, you just get some horses that thrive on the Knavesmire.
As Ancient Cross and Navajo Chief proved on Thursday.
With those two in mind I'm drawn to the chances of CRACKENTORP in the Jorvik at 20/1.
He acts well in soft conditions, goes very well at York (three course wins to his name and three other placed efforts too) and has form in this very race (second in 2010, third in 2012).
His last win at the track came in June last year off a mark of 93, so off a pound higher with conditions ideal he's worth a bet despite a dismal reappearance at Ripon.
I was just going to back him each-way, but have decided instead to split stakes on the Tim Easterby-trained horse and HANOVERIAN BARON at 16s.
He won this race three years ago off a mark of 83, and, 5lbs higher on Friday, that difference is compensated for by the excellent Michael Murphy's claim (he's the jockey who did the business for us on Navajo Chief).
Unlike Crackentorp he has been in good form this year, running well three times on the all-weather including a victory at Wolverhampton two starts ago.
Back at York on ground he goes on, he's another one who could relive past glories.
The problem with backing these two each-way is there could be a number of non-runners and the odd Rule 4, but we can do little about the latter so two small win bets are advised.
A bigger problem could be Sir John Hawkwood, who looks sure to appreciate the step up to 12 furlongs judging by his Chester win last week and he could be a horse going places.
However, he hasn't had long to recover from that and he looks very short at around 9/4 considering he flopped on his only previous visit to York.
Selections: 1pt win Crackentorp in 2.15 York at 20/1, 1pt win Hanoverian Baron in 2.15 York at 16/1
*Ben tipped 12/1 winner Navajo Chief at York on Thursday.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +237.06pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +104.75pts to recommended stakes in 2013.