Tip Of The Day: Love Greeley
Ben Coley fancies Greeleys Love to win at Windsor this evening and makes him the sportinglife.com tip of the day.
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The coral.co.uk Handicap at Windsor has the makings of a competitive race, with three last time out winners among the field, a handicap debutant from Sir Henry Cecil's yard and a couple who'd shown promise prior to disappointing last time.
It's the latter category which interests me and at around 4/1 Greeleys Love is well worth forgiving a poor seasonal return at Musselburgh.
That day, Mark Johnston's son of Mr Greeley was punted into 5/2 favouritism on his debut for the yard in a clear indication that he's considered well-treated, and that certainly looks to be the case on the form he showed for Kevin Ryan as a juvenile.
First, he finished within five lengths of One Day More, a horse who arrived with exceptional form claims and has subsequently earned a rating of 100.
Two starts later, he ran in a York maiden won by Wentworth, now rated 92 but considered a colt capable of progressing way beyond that figure in time. The second and fourth are now rated 84 and 89 respectively while the third, Bright Spark, was beaten less than five lengths in the French 2000 Guineas yesterday.
Greeleys Love was beaten just six lengths in this race, finishing ahead of a pair of Johnston runners, and deservedly got off the mark when his sights were lowered next time. Again, that form looks stronger now than it did then given that the runner-up is now rated 80 having won his next start and the third 82 having done the same.
So, a mark of 78 clearly looks generous and all we need to do to justify a bet even in this competitive race is to forgive that run at Musselburgh. I'm more than prepared to do that given he was held up at a track which favours front-runners, and the fact that it was his seasonal return in a handicap a couple of grades higher than this one.
Today's race represents a step up in trip which also seems likely to bring about improvement and with a lack of pace in the race I can also see him benefiting from a more forceful ride from Silvestre de Sousa.
Of the opposition, World Record looks to have it to do from top weight and I'd be more interested in Aint Got A Scoopy, whose Epsom success has been franked by the runner-up.
Perhaps more interesting, however, is Monsieur Rieussec. Jonathan Portman's horse is fairly treated on his form last year and could improve further for a step up in trip on his first start since being gelded.
Consider a saver on him if you can get double-figure prices, but at anything around 4/1 it's surely worth chancing Greeleys Love here.