Don't go Bertie at Donny

We analyse the last 10 renewals of Saturday's William Hill Lincoln at Doncaster and pick out the key statistics.

• Winners have been aged four (x6), six (x3) and five (x1).
• Winners have carried between 8-9 and 9-10 with six of them between 8-9 and 9-0 (none of the last three).
• Winners have been rated between 91 and 107 with eight between 91 and 98.
• Winners have been returned between 3/1 and 25/1 with six between 3/1 and 10/1; three favourites have been successful.
• Winners have been drawn between one and 23; five in single figures and five not.
• Six winners finished first or second on their preceding start.
• Eight winners were making their seasonal reappearance.
• Six winners had won or been placed in a class 2 handicap; of the exceptions three were having their first run at this level (all fancied four year olds) and the other had won a Listed race.
• Six winners had won at a mile; of the exceptions, all bar one had won over trips beyond a mile and the 'bar one' had finished second over C&D.

(Including results for the 2006/7 renewals that were run at Redcar and Newcastle)

Summary

It seems somewhat surprising that only one five year old has lifted this prize but focusing on just the four and six-year-olds leaves us with just seven runners to consider.

Removing those who have had a run this season brings the short-list to just five possibles with both Lahaag and Chapter Seven on the list and preference is for the former given the marginally better record of horses who made the frame on their preceding start.

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