Mal Boyle's Placepot picks

  • By: Malcolm Boyle
  • Last Updated: April 19 2014, 19:51 BST

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.

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His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 1700 BST the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.

MUSSELBURGH - APRIL 20

Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2013: £31.60
2012: £72.80
2011: £100.60
2010: £403.80
2009: £75.70
2008: £27.00
2006: £55.10
2005: £150.60
2002: £18.60


Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (9 years) £103.97


Average toteplacepot dividend at in 2006: £196.89 (18 meetings)-in 2007: £326.90 (19 meetings)--in 2008: £287.60 (25 meetings in total--NH & flat)--in 2009: £276.86 (17 flat meetings)--in 2010: £185.82 (19 flat meetings)--in 2011: £667.98 (15 flat meetings)--in 2012: £503.84 (15 flat meetings)--in 2013: £688.81 (16 meetings)

2.05 I tend to side with four-year-olds in these mixed vintage events when decent form is almost conspicuous by its absence, as are 'trends' in this instance. The theory is that four-year-old might retain scope for further improve and the pick of the junior runners this time around will hopefully prove to be MIDNIGHT WARRIOR, BAPAK PESTA and PERFECT WORDS. Five-year-old MY MAKEKINEKO is only the second horse that John Jenkins has saddled at Musselburgh in the last five years if I am reading the records correctly, whereby John's Authorized gelding is added to the equation at the overnight stage.

'Favourite factor': This is a new race with which to start proceedings on Easter Sunday.

2.35 Mark Johnston (INSAANY) and John Shanahan (MAID OF THE GLENS) saddled winners on Friday's card in Edinburgh and their horses might represent yours truly in my toteplacepot permutation come sun up. INSAANY was only beaten four lengths over a mile on fast ground on his second (and last) start last year despite finishing fifth of eight. A 28/1 chance that (October) day, Mark's Shamardal colt has been well placed to go very close on Sunday.

'Favourite factor': Just two (evens & 5/6) favourites have won via the last nine renewals, whilst five of the market leaders secured toteplacepot positions. That said, two of the casualties who finished out of the frame were sent off at 8/13 and 8/11.

3.05 Kevin Ryan has his team in good nick and though time could prove that his Diamond Green gelding SWEHAN is a better horse away from turf, Paul Mulrennan's mount was only beaten four lengths when second on his debut on fast ground at Hamilton in September. LORD FRANKLIN and ANOTHER FOR JOE are potential outsiders that I could give toteplacepot chances to from towards the foot of the handicap.

'Favourite factor': This is another new race on the card.

3.35 Racing off a mark of 22 spots below his top mark in the past, there is little doubt that HIGH OFFICE has seen better days. That said, the High Chaparral gelding has bounced back to defy critics down the years regarding his rating and Richard Fahey's course winner could reward each way investors in this grade/company. DR IRV, SIR FRANK MORGAN and CORTON LAD are considered to be the main threats on this occasion.

'Favourite factor': This is another new race on the Musselburgh programme, with Easter being three weeks later than was the case last year.

4.05 Mark Johnston has saddled gold and silver medallists via just the two renewals of this event to date and in his Dalakhani colt ALEX MY BOY, Mark has fine prospects in the contest again. Only a red hot (4/11) Sir Michael Stoute winner finished ahead of 'Alex' on his debut and he looks sure to go one better here. NEW TARABELA has only raced on all-weather surfaces via four assignments to date, the last two of which have ended in defeat by the same margin of three quarters of a length.

'Favourite factor': The inaugural 1/2 favourite duly obliged two years ago before punters chose the wrong one of the two horses which dominated last year's market. The winner was sent off as a 6/5 chance, finishing seven lengths clear of the 5/4 market leader who was 23 lengths (and more) ahead of the other three contenders!

4.35 All nine horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far carried a minimum burden of nine stones with IMSHIVALLA, SIR GUY PORTEOUS and TIFFANY BAY heading my list in the last leg of our favourite wager. Now where on earth has 'er indoors hidden those eggs...

'Favourite factor': Only one of the three favourites (last year's 2/1 winner) has finished in the frame (exact science) in the toteplacepot finale thus far.

PLUMPTON:

Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2013: £16.10
2012: £199.60


Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (2 years) £107.85


Average toteplacepot dividend at Plumpton in 2006: £328.82 (14 meetings)-in 2007: £99.36 (19 meetings)--in 2008: £220.96 (15 meetings)--in 2009: £321.51 (13 meetings)--in 2010: £201.14 (16 meetings)--in 2011: £3,118.91 (156 meetings)--in 2012: £322.42 (15 meetings)--in 2013: £145.15 (14 meetings)

TOWCESTER:

Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2013: £156.20
2012: £24.20


Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (2 years) £90.20


Average toteplacepot dividend at Towcester in 2006: £1,326.29 (17 meetings)-in 2007: £2,583.20 (18 meetings)--in 2008: £444.59 (16 meetings)--in 2009: £380.71 (16 meetings)--in 2010: £718.99 (16 meetings)--in 2011: £109.73 (18 meetings)--in 2012: £122.18 (16 meetings)--in 2013: £147.53 (14 meetings)

2014 average toteplacepot returns thus far (349 meetings):


Favourites failing to reach the frame in all six races: £44,616.30 (1)


1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £696.86 (5)


2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,475.88 (35)


3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £489.66 (94)


4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £222.92 (102)


5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £56.48 (76)


All 6 Placepot races with at least one favourite in the frame: £15.02 (36)


All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers & totepool.com

Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2014:


Cheltenham--£44,616.30--Friday March 14


Pontefract--£26,272.90--Tuesday April 8


Warwick (NH)--£6,946.60--Sunday March 9


Wolverhampton--£5,122.30--Friday April 11


Southwell (NH)--£4,820.20--Thursday January 22


Stratford--£2,571.90--Saturday March 22


Cheltenham--£2,414.40--Thursday April 17


Lingfield (A/W)--£2,320.10--Saturday March 22


Catterick (NH)--£2,105.50--Wednesday January 1


Doncaster (Flat)--£2,002.40--Sunday March 30

Flat Turf venues:


Total Flat Turf meetings (£1,792.68--19 meetings)


Beverley (£1,034.90--1 meeting)


Doncaster (£1,036.70--2 meetings)


Catterick (£28.50--1 meeting)


Leicester (£306.10--1 meeting)


Musselburgh (£923.80--1 meeting)


Newbury (£344.50--2 meetings)


Newcastle (£354.90--1 meeting)


Newmarket (Rowley Mile) (£95.15--2 meetings)


Nottingham (£18.20--1 meeting)


Pontefract (£13,144.30--2 meetings)


Redcar (£15.70--1 meeting)


Ripon (£81.80--1 meeting)


Thirsk (£787.90--1 meeting)


Windsor (£636.35--2 meetings)

A/W venues:


Total A/W meetings (£214.36--144 meetings)


Kempton (£132.38--30 meetings)


Kempton NH Bumper (£134.05--2 meetings)


Lingfield (£214.70--38 meetings)


Lingfield NH Bumper (£27.70--1 meeting)


Southwell (£174.44--29 meetings)


Southwell NH Bumper (£17.00--1 meeting)


Wolverhampton (£274.14--43 meetings)

N/H venues:


Total NH meetings (£583.29--186 meetings)


Aintree (£676.70--3 meetings)


Ascot (£144.23--3 meetings)


Ayr (£360.01--8 meetings)


Bangor (£271.67--3 meetings)


Carlisle (£247.32--4 meetings)


Catterick (£375.36--7 meetings)


Cheltenham (£6,245.94--8 meetings)


Chepstow (£240.40--5 meetings)


Doncaster (£290.41--7 meetings)


Exeter (£383.28--6 meetings)


Fakenham (£137.80--4 meetings)


Ffos Las (£340.25--4 meetings)


Fontwell (£195.89--4 meetings)


Haydock (£661.47--3 meetings)


Hexham (£472.80--3 meetings)


Huntingdon (£153.00--6 meetings)


Kelso (£310.15--4 meetings)


Kempton (£133.84--5 meetings)


Leicester (£382.19--5 meetings)


Ludlow (£69.70--6 meetings)


Market Rasen (£118.86--6 meetings)


Musselburgh (£372.37--6 meetings)


Newbury (£209.60--6 meetings)


Newcastle (£454.85--6 meetings)


Newton Abbot (£217.30--1 meeting)


Plumpton (£146.32--5 meetings)


Sandown (£119.00--3 meetings)


Southwell (£1,026.91--6 meetings)


Sedgefield (£238.98--8 meetings)


Stratford (£690.25--4 meetings)


Taunton (£161.20--8 meetings)


Towcester (£148.68--5 meetings)


Uttoxeter (£336.85--2 meetings)


Warwick (£1,287.67--6 meetings)


Wetherby (£93.64--7 meetings)


Wincanton (£187.78--8 meetings)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2014 stands at £500.60 (349 meetings) up to and including Friday April 18.


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