Promising Avoca fancied at Rasen
Avoca Promise can get the better of Megastar in the Magners Golden Draught Novices' Chase at Market Rasen says Ben Coley.
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Megastar sets a reasonable standard and on the pick of his form, the 2.30 at Market Rasen is his to win.
However, not only has he flattered to deceive since sent over fences, but his last two starts over hurdles show an aggregate defeat of 169 lengths, and I'm not convinced that a couple of all-weather runs will provide the confidence boost that some expect.
To me, he's thoroughly exposed and vulnerable to anything with scope for improvement, which is where Avoca Promise comes in.
Always well thought of by trainer Charles Egerton, he ran an excellent race on bottomless ground in December behind subsequent winner Module and on that bare form he's got a solid chance here.
Not only was that his first start over fences but his first run since recording a win in a good-ground Wincanton hurdle in the spring, and I expect him to derive plenty of improvement from it.
Although slightly better ground would've been preferred, he's got some interesting form on soft ground and the fact that Egerton let him take his chance at Newbury last time suggests he's confident his charge will act here.
Sam Twiston-Davies has a very profitable record when riding for the yard - more so than for any other - and in-form Egerton is a rare visitor to the track which suggests he fancies his chances.
With Gallox Bridge unlikely to be suited by conditions on his chasing debut I think Avoca Promise need only reproduce that Newbury run to go close and I fancy he'll better it to win.