Back Bay to defy weight stats

  • By: Ian Ogg
  • Last Updated: January 4 2013, 14:18 GMT

We analyse the last 10 renewals of Saturday's Coral Welsh National at Chepstow and pick out the key statistics.

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  • Winners have been aged six (2), seven (3), eight (3) and nine (2).
  • Winners have carried between 10 and 11-6 with seven weighted 10-9 or below.
  • Winners have been rated between 125 and 152. Six were between 125 and 138 but four of the last six were between 142 and 152.
  • Winners have been priced between 10-3 and 20-1 with five returned at single figures SPs.
  • One favourite has been successful with a further four placed.
  • Eight winners had finished in the first four on their preceding start.
  • Seven winners had run no more than 14 times over fences.
  • Only one winner had run more than twice during the current season.
  • Seven winners had previously won at the course, the other three were making their course debut.
  • All of the winners had won over three miles or beyond.
  • Nine of the winners had either won or been placed in a Class 1 chase, the other hadn't previously run at that level.

Summary

The last horse aged 10 or older to win this race was Riverside Boy in 1997 and one has to go back another six years to find the previous winner of a double figure age in Playschool who was, of course, ridden by Paul Nicholls.

Discarding those 'aged' performers reduces the number of potential winners to a more manageable nine which can be cut further by discounting those to have already run in a class one contest without success leaving a short-list comprising Across The Bay, Universal Soldier, Alfie Spinner, Viking Blond and Monbeg Dude.

Three of that quintet wear headgear as have three of the last four winners which may be nothing more than an anomaly but is worth mentioning nonetheless.

With two of the last four winners rated 150 and 152 it may be worth chancing Across The Bay at an attractive price although it must be acknowledged that he's carrying more than Notre Pere and Synchronised (11-0 and 11-6 respectively) and that the majority of winners have carried less than 11-0.


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