Don't scout around - Bobs the job
We analyse the last ten renewals of Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup Chase at Newbury and pick out the key statistics.
- Four 7 year olds, three 6 year olds, two 8 year olds and a 9 year old have been successful.
- Winners have carried between 10-0 and 11-12 with three defying top-weight and three between 10-0 and 10-5.
- Winners have been rated between 140 and 174 with seven between 140 and 150 but only two of those came in the last five years.
- Winners have been priced between 9-4 and 25-1 with three favourites (including one joint) successful, only two other favourites were placed.
- Seven winners finished in the first three on their preceding start but three of the last four finished PU, F, 6.
- Three of the last seven winners had their preceding start in the RSA Chase where they finished PU, 1, 1.
- Seven winners had won a chase at Grade Three level or above, including the last five.
- Four winners had won a Grade One or Two contest over hurdles.
- Seven winners had run no more than 12 times in chases, winning at least half of their starts.
- All of the last 10 winners had finished first or second over three miles.
- Six of the nine winners to have previously run at Newbury had been successful.
- Six winners were in their first or second season over fences.
- Four winners were making their handicap chase bow, two were having their second handicap start having finished 1,1 on their handicap debut.
Traditionally a good race for second season chasers, that statistic has been challenged of late with three of the last four 'experienced' winners coming in the last four years; all four such winners in the decade had previously contested the race which is bad news for supporters of Tidal Bay who also has to defy the age stats with only the exceptional Denman aged older than 8.
He was rated 174 when winning for the second time and was also the next highest rated winner when scoring from 161 (before a further gap to 156) the first time around so Bobs Worth is at the higher end of the ratings spectrum and this has been a relatively bad race for favourites.
Of those lower down the weights, Frisco Depot and Saint Are are of most interest but Bobs Worth really does tick all of the boxes and is selected ahead of the RSA runner-up First Lieutenant.
Results include Gingembre as the 2002 winner, not first past the post Be My Royal