It's got to be Worth it
Johns Spirit was a nice winner for us last week after he upheld most of the key trends to land the Paddy Power Gold Cup last Saturday - I hope some of you were on!
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On to this weekend and the Betfair Chase at Haydock is the feature contest and with Dynaste missing Cheltenham last week in favour of this heat then race officials at the Lancashire track will certainly be pleased about that.
The race has only been going for 8 years, but with former champion trainer Paul Nicholls winning five of those, including 12 months ago with Silviniaco Conti, then anything he runs on Saturday in the race should be respected.
Silviniaco Conti, is one of the leading fancies in the betting at this stage of the week as he looks to follow-up his 2012 win, while at the moment the yard also have recent Wetherby winner Tidal Bay entered.
Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth is the other big name on the card and should he take his chance then based on the ratings is certainly the one to beat - he's 7lbs clear of his nearest rival, and last year's winner, Silviniaco Conti.
Cue Card could also make the line-up and should all those mentioned so far here run then we really will be in for a cracker-jack of a race on Saturday. Colin Tizzard's 7 year-old would have come on for his recent third at Exeter, and in my view he'll be seen in a better light his season over 3m, which he gets here - he's certainly one for the shortlist.
The Pipe camp had a cracking time of it last week at Cheltenham so that will give supporters of their Dynaste more confidence. This improving chaser's only blip was when running second in last season's Jewson Novices'Chase at the Festival, but he bounced back at Aintree the following month when winning the Mildmay Novices' Chase.
This 3m looks to suit him better, while he's won here at Haydock in the past, albeit over hurdles. Soft ground won't be an issue either as he's won in heavy conditions, while it's interesting that connections has opted for this race rather than the Paddy Power last week.
I've listed a few key trends below, but all-in-all if most of the mentioned runners make the race then it's a 'must-see' race and a contest that will really set the Gold Cup picture alight as we are now getting right into the heart of the new NH season.
For me, last year's winner, Silviniaco Conti, is respected, as is the Pipe runner, especially with their horses in fantastic form, but if Nicky Henderson thinks Bobs Worth is up to this on his first run of the season then that's good enough for me.
He's got around 7lbs+ in hand with most of these and let's not forget he won first time out 12 months ago when landing the Hennessy - add in that he's only had 12 career starts so, believe it or not, there actually could be even more to come from this tough and consistent 8 year-old.
Betfair Chase Betting Trends
8/8 - Irish (3) or French (5) bred winners
7/8 - Won over at least 3m (fences) before
6/8 - Had run within the last 4 weeks
6/8 - Officially rating of 168 or higher
6/8 - Placed favourites
6/8 - Placed in the top three last time out
6/8 - Winning distance - 2 ½ lengths or less
5/8 - Ran at Haydock before
5/8 - Won a Grade One chase before
4/8 - Favourites that won
3/8 - Ran at Aintree last time out
3/8 - Won last time out
3/8 - Ran at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out The average winning price in the last 8 runnings is 13/2 The Paul Nicholls stable and Kauto Star took the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011 & 2012 Ruby Walsh has ridden the winner in 2006, 2009, 2011 & 2012
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