Value Bet: Ryan mighty
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on the opening day of the Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival at York.
- Related Content
The key dilemma for punters on day one of York's Ebor meeting is whether they are for or against Derby one-two Australia and Kingston Hill.
The former is a general 8/13 chance for the Juddmonte International on the back of his Derby wins at Epsom and the Curragh, with the step back in trip to 10 furlongs expected to be a positive.
Telescope and Mukhadram are worthy rivals, while Dante first and second The Grey Gatsby and Arod shouldn't be underestimated either, but it's very hard to pick holes in Australia who should take all the beating.
Epsom runner-up Kingston Hill is arguably a better bet in the Great Voltigeur at 6/4, given he's clear of his rivals on official ratings with the step back up to a mile and a half sure to help.
I certainly don't see the point in taking the pair on and instead I'd rather have a few bets in the opening Symphony Group Handicap over the extended five furlongs.
There is pace right across the track here and Monsieur Joe should get the breakneck gallop he needs, with the slightly extra yardage also likely to play to his strengths.
I was very close to backing him at prices around the 20/1 mark, but he could probably do with a bit more cut in the ground and a mark of 103 is just high enough too, although he did win off 100 here earlier in the campaign.
Instead the shortlist is whittled down to two and both selections are trained by Kevin Ryan.
We'll start with BOGART, who gets to race off a mark 3lb lower than his victory in this contest last year. Ryan has done remarkably well to get him this well handicapped again in time for his favourite meeting of the season.
The son of Bahamian Bounty has won four times in his life, including twice at the Ebor Festival, with the 2011 DBS Yearling Stakes the other race in which he has struck at the Ebor.
Last year he was well-backed in this contest after being unlucky in the Sky Bet Dash where his saddle slipped. This time around he comes here after running 10th in the same contest, after which the handicapper dropped him to a career-low rating of 94.
I can't resist him off this mark and the general 16/1 is worth taking as he could go off half the price. Expect Neil Callan to blast out from his middle draw and play catch me if you can.
There are dangers everywhere in a really competitive heat but the main one could be his own stablemate and BLAINE is also worth backing at 25/1.
He's another one with a fine record at York, having won his maiden here, the 2012 Gimcrack and then he ran third off a mark of 95 in the Infinity Tyres Handicap back in May.
Subsequent Wokingham winner Baccarat was a neck in front of him that day wand there were plenty of subsequent winners in behind him too, including Out Do who won the Great St Wilfrid at the weekend.
A more recent formline with Out Do came at Hamilton on July 18, when Blaine bounced back to winning form at the expense of Tatlisu and the aforementioned David O'Meara runner.
That's good form and I liked the way he bullied his way to the front and stuck to his guns in what were effectively first-time blinkers (he had them applied at Chester previously, but got rid of Kevin Stott when leaving the stalls).
The blinkers didn't work in the Stewards' Cup last time when he broke slowly and never got into things, but that's the second time he's spat the dummy out at Goodwood and perhaps he just doesn't like the place.
The same cannot be said about his ability to perform on the Knavesmiire, and, from a mark just 4lb higher than that good win in Scotland, he's worth a bet at 25s.
Finally, in the penultimate Fine Equinity Handicap TOTALIZE is worth backing at 16/1.
Trainer Brian Ellison has five in the race but this fellow looks the pick of the quintet judging by his impressive success here at York two starts ago.
Megan Carberry claimed 7lb off him that day and is booked for the ride again with the 9lb higher mark the main reason he's such a big price.
However, I thought he ran with great credit under a penalty in the Northumberland Plate and he still hasn't got many miles on the clock.
More improvement in this sphere shouldn't be ruled out and with the hood reapplied back atthe scene of his emphatic success in June, he's worth chancing to defy the hike in the weights.
*Make sure you check out the @sportinglife twitter account at midday on Wednesday August 20 for a social media Ebor Festival-related quiz - free bets with Sky Bet are there to be won!
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +320.59pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).