Value Bet: Find your Voice
Ben Linfoot is prepared to take on the top two in the betting in the Goodwood Cup and makes Forgotten Voice his Value Bet.
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The Artemis Goodwood Cup takes centre stage at the Glorious meeting on Thursday and though Brown Panther and Estimate dominate the betting, I think the pair of them are worth taking on.
Last year's winner, Brown Panther, had a tough race in the soft ground at Longchamp just over two weeks ago and though he's pretty versatile regarding the ground he's perhaps a better animal when there is cut in the turf.
Those two factors are enough to put me off at 3/1 and I'm even less convinced by Estimate's claims at a point shorter, as while she has an excellent form chance and is relatively fresh, I do believe she's an out-and-out stayer that is particularly suited by marathon tests like the Ascot Gold Cup.
She might retain the tactical speed to win this, but at 2/1 I won't be betting on it and the one I like to topple the big two is FORGOTTEN VOICE for Nicky Henderson.
This veteran may be nine-years-old these days, but he is lightly-raced for his years and has a whole host of top-class form in his back catalogue, including at Goodwood.
Five years ago he was fourth in Rip Van Winkle's Sussex Stakes, while at this meeting last year he won the Group Three Coutts Glorious Stakes over a mile-and-a-half with recent Sky Bet York Stakes winner Sheikhzayedroad back in third.
Since then he was a close second to Mount Athos over an extended one-mile-five at Newbury and last time he was fourth to Telescope in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot. On both occasions he was closing at the finish and is a very obvious one to try at two miles on the Flat for the first time given his connections.
He's won novice hurdles over two miles but that's of little relevance here and I'm more interested in the way he's finished his last two races over shorter distances on the level as a marker to how he will perform in Sussex.
The signs are obviously good and he's got plenty of stamina in his pedigree, the most notable example being his half-brother Big Occasion who won the Midlands National last year. If you don't necessarily need bags of stamina to win a two-mile novice hurdle, you certainly do to win Uttoxeter's season highlight!
Getting back to the selection's Flat form, he's not far behind the best of these even on his two runs in defeat this season and on a line through Pether's Moon he's not far off Cavalryman and that form line is over a mile-and-a-half.
With the trip likely to bring about further improvement at a track that he has performed well at in the past, he looks a good bet at prices around 11/1 (10s generally).
The icing on the cake is the booking of Richard Hughes, as he will need to settle in the early stages if he's to get home and on that score there is no better alternative in the weighing room.
The bookies have been slow to price up the final two handicaps of the day (if Secret Hint, from slightly out of the handicap, is 7/1 or bigger she's worth a bet in the penultimate race) so we're left with the opening Fairmont Handicap.
There are a few interesting runners in this, but none more so than Mark Johnston's RAINBOW ROCK who has to be backed 7/1.
This horse has been on my radar all season but only now is he fulfilling his potential, as a combination of being gelded and stepping up in trip to 10 furlongs seem to be working the oracle.
I reckon he could still have a stone in hand of the assessor now he's running over his optimum trip and Cam Hardie's 5lb claim is also a help.
His juvenile form was promising and I expected more from him in handicaps off 70 earlier in the campaign, but he just seemed to lack a gear over a mile while connections stated that he had a 'mental thing'.
Whatever it was, they've found the key to him now judging by his easy win at Beverley last time where he raced wide before powering clear in the manner of a horse that is well handicapped.
A half-brother to the classy Rainbow Peak, connections have always thought highly of this fellow and from his low draw I expect him to go very close.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +277.31pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).