Value Bet: Old Pal's act

  • By: Ben Linfoot
  • Last Updated: July 30 2014, 15:43 BST

Ben Linfoot, fresh from a 10/1 winner on Tuesday, seeks out the value on the second day of Glorious Goodwood.

Scotland (right, pink and green silks): Can enhance his St Leger claims
Scotland (right, pink and green silks): Can enhance his St Leger claims

Recommendations:

1pt win Scotland in 2.30 Goodwood

1pt win Pallister in 3.40 Goodwood

1pt win Little Shambles in 5.25 Goodwood

1pt win Accession in 5.25 Goodwood

Andrew Balding got off to a fine start for the week at Glorious Goodwood on Tuesday when Van Percy enhanced his Ebor claims and another of his improving stayers makes plenty of appeal on Wednesday.

The beast in question is SCOTLAND, a son of Monsun that is on the up, and he can stake his own claims for a future target, the Ladbrokes St Leger, when he lines up in the Neptune Investment Management Gordon Stakes.

His chance seems to have been underestimated on the basis he was running on passed beaten horses at Royal Ascot, but I take an opposing view and feel that he’s getting to grips with the game now the emphasis is on stamina.

The bare form of that contest is good; the second best in the race. He was only beaten five and a half lengths by King George fourth Eagle Top and I’m inclined to believe that form is more trustworthy than Somewhat’s, who stands out on official ratings but might’ve been flattered by his proximity to Mukhadram in the Eclipse.

On top of that there is a slight question mark over the suitability of a mile and a half for Somewhat, but the same cannot be said of Scotland who will need every yard of the trip to show his best.

Balding has always held this colt in the highest regard and only now is he beginning to fulfil his early promise.

That run last time, where he finished in front of the well-fancied Snow Sky, was extremely promising and he shouldn’t be double the odds of the Sir Michael Stoute-trained horse as he could well confirm the form here.

Mark Johnston also started the week with a bang on Tuesday and I can’t resist the 12/1 about his PALLISTER in the Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes.

Aidan O’Brien and Richard Hannon could well have the key to this race, but Pallister seems to have been underestimated by the layers after winning a couple of low-key races in the North.

However, he must have a fair degree of class to win two races over six furlongs as it has been very obvious he is crying out for a step up in trip – his dam Punctilious won the Yorkshire Oaks – and he should relish this test over seven at this stage of his career.

This is a fair hike in class, but there are very clear signs the step up to seven will unlock plenty of improvement and at 12/1 it’s worth finding out to see if that will be good enough.

Finally, I’ll take two against the field in the closing Turf Club Handicap starting with Pallister’s stablemate LITTLE SHAMBLES at 12/1.

She’s on a serious upward curve over this trip on fast ground and you can ignore her run at Newmarket last time when she got stuck in the mud.

In a tight handicap she’s almost the highest rated horse in the race yet gets in off bottom weight – we’ve seen time and time again how well Mark Johnston places his three-year-olds at this time of year and this looks no exception.

Joe Fanning’s brief will be to jump out quickly and make all and at 12s she’s worth backing as they might not catch her.

However, there is quite a bit of pace in the race both around her and on the inside and I suggest backing ACCESSION at 14/1 as well.

This horse was rated 96 earlier in his career but runs off 82 on Wednesday and comes into the race on the back of a confidence-boosting victory at Kempton last time.

That was with the blinkers and hood removed and with no headgear on again here it could be that new trainer Charlie Fellowes has found the key to him very quickly.

He has good form at Goodwood, has the ability to sit just off a strong pace and has a nice middle draw to do just that under Martin Lane, who gets on well with him.

Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +281.31pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).