Irish Eyes: A Bold show
Our Irish Eyes column previews Derby day at the Curragh, with Giovanni Boldini expected to win on the under card.
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It’s Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby day and the betting reveals it is a two-horse race with Australia currently trading at 2/7, Kingston Hill at 7/2 and its then 20/1 about the others with Sky Bet.
It’s not simply about picking up the majority of the €1.25 million on offer today it’s about the future at stud for these horses. Being realistic, whether Kingston Hill runs or not, Australia is unlikely to ever face such a weak field in any future Group 1 races and following a one-and-a-quarter length winning margin at Epsom, Coolmore will realise this is their best chance to record a wide margin win.
Aidan O’Brien is on record as saying that Australia is the best flat horse he has ever trained and he will require a massive winning performance at some stage to justify that tag.
Today looks the ideal opportunity and while he is not a working man’s price at odds-on, he will be odds-against to win in the distance specials once they are up and the bet is to back him to win by anything over 3 lengths today.
Cappella Sansevero stole the headlines at a recent sale in England and while it’s nigh on impossible to believe that anybody could part with £650,000 for him, never mind double that figure (yes, he officially sold for £1.3 million!), he nevertheless has today’s GAIN Railway Stakes at his mercy.
Whilst ‘the Railway’ race can throw up some top horses - George Washington, Holy Roman Emperor and Mastercraftsman have won in over the past ten years – it has also been annexed during that time by horses of the calibre of Lizzard Island, Formosina and Probably, all of whom couldn’t manage a single Irish or UK win again between them, from 14 subsequent combined starts!
This year’s renewal looks appears to be swaying more towards the ‘Lizzard Island’ category at this stage and on his Coventry Stakes second, Cappella Sansevero has the beating of this field.
A strong colt, the second eldest in this field of eight, he has maturity on his side and connections wisely are taking advantage of that (this is his fifth run by June of his juvenile career) before his contemporaries catch up with him and he won’t find a better opportunity that this to recoup some of his purchase price.
Of course, if he does win, he will still need to earn an additional £1,226,200 just to break even on his recent purchase cost (not including training fees and expenses!) but that’s something for connections to worry about!
Colin Keane replaced Jamie Spencer in the saddle for Qatar Racing today and if racecourse rumours are accurate, it is possible that is a scenario we may see a lot more of in future.
Giovanni Boldini appeals as the nap in the Listed Dubai Duty Free Millennium Millionaire Celebration Stakes.
He was just caught and beaten half-a-length in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last season by Outstrip, who ran a cracker in finishing third to Kingman in the St. James’s Palace Stakes last week.
The fact that he failed to win in Santa Anita means that Giovanni Boldini is eligible for this Listed event, which is only open to horses that have not won a Group 1 or Group 2.
There was a reason he only managed fourth in Dubai last March and then he disappointed twice on unsuitably soft ground.
He returned close to his best form when running third in the Jersey at Royal Ascot last week behind the talented Shadwell-owned pair Mustajeeb and Muwaary and he is the nap selection today.
Take the 8/11 that is currently on offer with Sky Bet.
Nap: Giovanni Boldini, 6.40 The Curragh
Next Best: Australia distance special – to win by over 3 lengths, 5.30 The Curragh
Trixie: Cappella Sansevero, 4.50 The Curragh