Mal Boyle's Placepot picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: September 19 2014, 16:17 BST

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his analysis ahead of Saturday's card at Newbury.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.

His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 1700 BST the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.

NEWBURY - SEPTEMBER 20

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2013: £407.80 (9 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

1.20 The five experienced runners have failed to pull up a single tree between them relating to the average Newbury maiden event, whereby it would be very disappointing if one of the newcomers failed to land this opening event, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be BACKCOUNTRY, ROCK LOBSTER and ROSSLARE. From a toteplacepot position however, we should look at horses which attract plenty of support overnight (see the stats below), whereby you are in a better position than yours truly in terms of offering your final conclusion.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have won via seven renewals to date, two of which were secured by 50/1 chances. Five of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame, whilst the other two favourites finished fourth in their respective events.

1.50 Four-year-olds have won three of the last five contests and the terms and conditions of this event suit TASADAY and HILLSTAR. Sir Michael Stoute's latter named raider has snared the silver medal in his last four starts, whilst TASADAY is a winner of two of her last four assignments. That said, five-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick and course and distance winner CUBANITA would be a threat if Ralph Beckett's Selkirk representative can offer his best form from last term.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last 17 years whilst nine of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

2.20 Very good (not great) horses have won this Group 2 (Mill Reef) event during the last decade or so and this renewal might offer a similar profile of the eventual winner, with LIMATO, STRATH BURN and possibly MUBTAGHAA leading home the 'dead eight' field on this occasion. These back end races to determine potential leading three-year-olds are inevitably worth watching without the need to reach for a betting slip/phone/website, aside from a play in our favourite (toteplacepot) wager obviously.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last 18 favourites have won this Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes, whilst 11 of the 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

2.55 Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 11 renewals whilst horses carrying 9-4 or less have secured 13 of the last 15 contests. The only horses with ticks in both boxes on this occasion are STEPPING AHEAD and BUSATTO. Three-year-olds have secured the other four contests (within the last seven years) whereby the chances ROSEBURG and ARAB DAWN are respected. Luca Cumani has saddled three of the last seven winners with the afore mentioned ROSEBURG representing the yard this time around.

Favourite factor: 16 of the last 17 favourites have been beaten during the study period, whilst only eight of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

3.30 Three and four-year-olds have held the call of late with junior raider MECCA'S ANGEL possibly being the value for money call this time around following her rout of the Scarborough Stakes field at the St Leger meeting at Doncaster last week. MOVIESTA and GRAPHIC GUEST are older vintage representatives to consider, though if MECCA'S ANGEL is on the same form as when blitzing the opposition on Town Moor 10 days ago, Paul Hanagan could ride another big race winner for trainer Michael Dods.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 17 years, statistics which include three successful market leaders who have secured three of the last four contests.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs): 8-10-7 (13 ran-soft 4-10-7 (10 ran-good to firm) 8-4-3 (10 ran-good) 14-10-12 (15 ran-good to firm) 5-3-8 (9 ran-good to firm) 14-15-16 (16 ran-good) 7-1-11 (8 ran-good to firm) 7-4-11 (10 ran-good) 10-5-11 (13 ran-good to firm) 6-1-7 (11 ran-good) 8-10-4 (9 ran-good to firm) 13-12-3 (12 ran-good to firm) 7-5-6 (11 ran-good to firm) 6-11-5 (11 ran-good to firm) 9-4-6 (13 ran-good to soft) 9-4-6 (12 ran-good)

4.05 POLARISATION represents Mark Johnston who landed this prize in devastating fashion last year (see stats below) and Mark's Echo Of Light colt is fancied to 'double up' on behalf of the yard in this Nursery event. Connections might have most to fear from HARLEQUIN STRIKER and GUIDING LIGHT at the business end of the two-year-old handicap.

Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 13/8 favourite was beaten six lengths, though Lady Cecil's raider was still good enough to secure a toteplacepot position when claiming the silver medal.

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday

10 - Richard Hannon
5 - Charlie Hills
5 - Brian Meehan
4 - Marco Botti
3 - Andrew Balding
3 - Roger Charlton
3 - Clive Cox
3 - Luca Cumani
3 - John Gosden
3 - William Haggas
3 - Mark Johnston
3 - Hughie Morrison
3 - Ed Walker
2 - Ralph Beckett
2 - Karl Burke
2 - Henry Candy
2 - Mick Channon
2 - Paul Cole
2 - Ed Dunlop
2 - Richard Fahey
2 - Charlie Fellowes
2 - Ron Harris
2 - Eve Johnson Houghton
2 - Rod Millman
2 - Jeremy Noseda
2 - Sir Michael Stoute
2 - Saeed Bin Suroor
1 - Conrad Allen
1 - John Best
1 - John Butler
1 - Patrick Chamings
1 - Peter Chapple-Hyam
1 - Robert Cowell
1 - Michael Dods
1 - David Elsworth
1 - Ed de Giles
1 - David C Griffiths
1 - Ben De Haan
1 - Barry Hills
1 - Timothy Jarvis
1 - Neil King
1 - William Knight
1 - P J O'Gorman
1 - Geoff Oldroyd
1 - David O'Meara
1 - Amanda Perrett
1 - Ted Powell
1 - Bryan Smart
1 - Kevin Ryan
1 - Tommy Stack
1 - Joseph Tuite
1 - Roger Varian
1 - Stuart Williams

106 declared runners

2014 average toteplacepot returns thus far (1056 meetings):
Favourites failing to reach the frame in all six races: £18,825.73 (4)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,082.47 (29)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,065.58 (115)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £494.64 (278)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £192.99 (304)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £68.00 (227)
All 6 Placepot races with at least one favourite in the frame: £15.08 (99)

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2014:
Cheltenham - £44,616.30 - Friday March 14
Pontefract - £26,272.90 - Tuesday April 8
Sandown - £20,601.40 - Saturday July 5
Redcar - £9,925.20 - Tuesday September 9
Warwick (NH) - £6,946.60 - Sunday March 9
Ripon - £6,876.30 - Saturday August 16
Doncaster (flat) - £6,810.90 - Saturday August 16
Redcar - £5,730.00 - Wednesday July 30
Wolverhampton - £5,122.30 - Friday April 11
Southwell (NH) - £4,820.20 - Thursday January 22
Chester - £4,495.50 - Saturday September 13
Hamilton - £4,433.40 - Friday August 22
Doncaster (flat) - £3,701.90 - Friday April 25
Lingfield (Mix Turf/AW) - £3,620.50 - Saturday June 28
Wetherby - £3,148.90 - Thursday May 29
York - £3,065.20 - Friday August 22
Bath - £3,032.20 - Friday August 1
York - £2,892.80 - Saturday June 14
Wincanton - £2,871.50 - Thursday May 8
Yarmouth - £2,868.90 - Monday April 21
Newmarket - £2,867.90 - Thursday July 11
Fontwell - £2,743.60 - Tuesday June 10
Stratford - £2,571.90 - Saturday March 22
Uttoxeter - £2,507.80 - Thursday June 12
Newmarket (July) - £2,433.40 - Saturday August 2
Cheltenham - £2,414.40 - Thursday April 17
Windsor - £2,390.20 - Monday August 4
Fontwell - £2,374.70 - Friday May 2
Lingfield (A/W) - £2,320.10 - Saturday March 22
Yarmouth - £2,176.60 - Sunday August 24
Stratford - £2,142.70 - Tuesday July 1
Catterick (NH) - £2,105.50 - Wednesday January 1
Bath - £2,090.60 - Wednesday June 25
Brighton - £2,008.10 - Thursday August 7
Doncaster (Flat) - £2,002.40 - Sunday March 30

Flat Turf venues:
Total Flat Turf meetings (£489.38 - 482 meetings)
Ascot (£255.24 - 15 meetings)
Ayr (£311.40 - 13 meetings)
Bath (£460.60 - 18 meetings)
Beverley (£505.02 - 17 meetings)
Brighton (£235.81 - 19 meetings)
Carlisle (£444.66 - 13 meetings)
Catterick (£172.99 - 13 meetings)
Chepstow (£123.17 - 13 meetings)
Chester (£517.16 - 14 meetings)
Doncaster (£799.34 - 21 meetings)
Epsom (£112.82 - 10 meetings)
Ffos Las (£749.04 - 6 meetings)
Goodwood (£168.73 - 17 meetings)
Hamilton (£434.38 - 15 meetings)
Haydock (£307.20 - 20 meetings)
Leicester (£133.89 - 17 meetings)
Lingfield (£877.00 - 1 meeting)
Musselburgh (£387.63 - 15 meetings)
Newbury (£201.06 - 13 meetings)
Newcastle (£182.77 - 14 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile) (£155.70 - 8 meetings)
Newmarket (July) (£539.74 - 22 meetings)
Nottingham (£293.46 - 16 meetings)
Pontefract (£2,532.58 - 12 meetings)
Redcar (£1553.04 - 13 meetings)
Ripon (£568.69 - 15 meetings)
Salisbury (£247.29 - 14 meetings)
Sandown (£1,560.04 - 16 meetings)
Thirsk (£269.33 - 15 meetings)
Warwick (£58.70 - 6 meetings - only two races contested at the May 20 meeting)
Windsor (£258.65 - 23 meetings)
Yarmouth (£435.90 - 23 meetings)
York (£851.54 - 15 meetings)

Mixed Turf and All-weather venues:
Lingfield (£290.98 - 15 meetings)

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£199.85 - 215 meetings)
Kempton (£93.71 - 55 meetings)
Kempton NH Bumper (£134.05 - 2 meetings)
Lingfield (£165.36 - 59 meetings)
Lingfield NH Bumper (£27.70 - 1 meeting)
Southwell (£142.79 - 39 meetings)
Southwell NH Bumper (£17.00 - 1 meeting)
Wolverhampton (£246.56 - 57 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£454.38 - 353 meetings)
Aintree (£565.72 - 5 meetings)
Ascot (£144.23 - 3 meetings)
Ayr (£360.01 - 8 meetings)
Bangor (£312.38 - 8 meetings)
Carlisle (£522.96 - 6 meetings)
Cartmel (£126.89 - 7 meetings)
Catterick (£375.36 - 7 meetings)
Cheltenham (£5,553.28 - 9 meetings)
Chepstow (£197.61 - 7 meetings)
Doncaster (£290.41 - 7 meetings)
Exeter (£332.49 - 7 meetings)
Fakenham (£160.26 - 7 meetings)
Ffos Las (£312.36 - 11 meetings)
Fontwell (£508.97 - 12 meetings)
Haydock (£817.85 - 4 meetings)
Hexham (£336.10 - 9 meetings)
Huntingdon (£131.30 - 10 meetings)
Kelso (£315.74 - 8 meetings)
Kempton (£133.63 - 6 meetings)
Leicester (£382.19 - 5 meetings)
Ludlow (£93.57 - 8 meetings)
Market Rasen (£88.90 - 15 meetings)
Musselburgh (£372.37 - 6 meetings)
Newbury (£209.60 - 6 meetings)
Newcastle (£454.85 - 6 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£187.42 - 15 meetings)
Perth (£291.60 - 14 meetings)
Plumpton (£267.18 - 8 meetings)
Sandown (£205.02 - 4 meetings)
Southwell (£536.35 - 14 meetings)
Sedgefield (£208.41 - 13 meetings)
Stratford (£387.73 - 14 meetings)
Taunton (£144.18 - 9 meetings)
Towcester (£112.88 - 10 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£325.03 - 14 meetings)
Warwick (£1,287.67 - 6 meetings)
Wetherby (£387.17 - 10 meetings)
Wincanton (£439.67 - 10 meetings)
Worcester (£183.94 - 16 meetings)

Mixed Flat and NH venues:
Ffos Las (£168.90 - 1 meeting)

Haydock (£311.40 - 1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2014 stands at £419.90 (1056 meetings) up to and including Thursday September 18