Mal Boyle's Placepot picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: August 22 2014, 18:56 BST

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his analysis for Saturday afternoon's card at York.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.
 
His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 1700 BST the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.

YORK - AUGUST 23

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2013: £58.00 (6 favourites: No winners--4 placed--2 unplaced)

2.05 Four-year-olds have won five of the last 10 renewals and I am hoping that two potential outsiders FLYING THE FLAG and ELLEVAL can run well on behalf of the vintage this time around. A more logical winner of the race is FAARAAJ from Roger Varian‘s yard which before racing was contested on the Knavesmire on Friday, boasted fine 2014 figures of 3/7 at York this season. A course winner having won the John Smith’s Cup here last time out, connections cannot complain too much regarding the hike up the weights following that fine effort.

Favourite factor: Four of the last 10 favourites have scored. The biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1 since the turn of the Millennium.

2.40 The last 11 winners carried weights of 9-4 or less whereby my quartet against the field consists of SEBASTIAN REACH, URADEL, BATTERSEA and URBAN MOON. The four horses are just about listed in order of preference though aside from our favourite wager, I would not be getting involved in this contest from a punting perspective. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to ROCKET SHIP.

Favourite factor: Three of the last 13 favourites have won since the turn of the Millennium during which time, the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at 9/1.

3.15 Kevin Ryan started the week by doing us a (12/1) favour and the trainer has secured the last two renewals of this ‘Gimcrack‘ event. It would take a leap of faith to expect the hat trick to be landed via Kevin‘s Dutch Art raider Teruntum Star however, especially with the likes of BEACON and BAITHA ALGA emerging from Richard Hannon‘s powerful yard. It appears highly unlikely that both of Richard‘s horses will finish out of the frame indeed; it’s far more likely that one of them will lift the Group 2 prize. Charlie Hills has enjoyed a half decent week and MUHAARAR (Charlie’s Oasis Dream representative) is also expected to figure prominently.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has obliged during the last 11 years, albeit eight of the last nine winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less. Seven of the 13 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs):
2013: 5-6 (7 ran-soft)
2012: 6-7-23 (8 ran-good)
2011: 1-4-2 (9 ran-good to soft)
2010: 3-7-10 (11 ran-good)
2009: 4-3 (6 ran-good to firm)
2008: Race contested at Goodwood--not applicable
2007: 5-2-4 (8 ran-good)
2006: 3-2 (6 ran-good to soft)
2005: 9-7-6 (13 ran-good)
2004: 2-4-3 (11 ran-soft)
2003: 9-5-4 (9 ran-good to firm)
2002: 2-4-1 (11 ran-good)
2001: 9-7-2 (9 ran-good)
2000: 2-5-3 (10 ran-good)
1999: 7-1-8 (10 ran-good)
1998: 7-5-8 (8 ran-good to firm)
1997: 1-7 (7 ran-good)

3.50 With the field restricted to just 20 runners nowadays, the most attractive handicap in Europe has taken on a different look of late. The number of three-year-old declarations has dropped (no takers again this year), with only the very best vintage representatives able to take their place in the line up. 10 of the last 12 winners have been drawn fourteen or higher, with only one winner drawn in single figures during the study period. The last 11 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4, whilst five-year-olds have secured five of the last nine contests. Taking the facts and stats into account, my ‘short list’ for the Ebor Handicap consists of MIGHTY YAR, SIR WALTER SCOTT, DARE TO ACHIEVE and ELIODOR. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to SUEGIOO who would have been part of the main mix but for being allotted an additional 16 ounces above the ‘superior‘ weight barrier. The ‘dark‘ horse is last year‘s beaten favourite TED VEALE who finished fourth but has not been seen on a racecourse since that effort.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have won via the last 16 renewals with nine market leaders securing toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw factor (fourteen furlongs):
Although this distance suggests that the draw should not make too much difference to the result, only one horse drawn in single figures has won via the last 11 renewals. High numbers appear to hold the call these days.

4.25 Second and third favourites have decent records in this event of late and the likes of MOONRAKER and MIND OF MADNESS could fill those positions in the market with definite toteplacepot claims. SHOWING CHARACTER is the progressive looking declaration in the field and the relevant seven-year-old sire Showcasing has certainly started well as a stallion in his short career thus far.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have won via the last 16 renewals, whilst 11 of the other 14 market leaders failed to reach the frame. Only one favourite has obliged via 10 renewals during the last 11 years, though nine of those gold medallists were returned at a top price of 17/2.

Draw factor (five furlongs):
2013: 5-6 ( 6ran-soft)
2012: 3-4 (6 ran-good to soft)
2011: 10-1-4 (10 ran-good)
2010: 9-13-6 (13 ran-good)
2009: 2-7 (7 ran-good to firm)
2007: 6-2-7 (10 ran-good)
2006: 6-4 (6 ran-good to soft)
2005: 4-6-7 (10 ran-good)
2004: 2-3 (5 ran-soft)
2003: 2-6-3 (9 ran-good to firm)
2002: 10-2-9 (10 ran-good)
2001: 8-4-2 (8 ran-good)
2000: 5-2 (7 ran-good)
1999: 7-2 (7 ran-good)
1998: 4-2 (7 ran-good to firm)
1997: 6-2 (7 ran-good)

5.00 Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 10 renewals of this event, whilst securing 19 of the last 37 available toteplacepot positions. 10 of the last 14 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less whereby a value for money ‘short list’ of DOUBLE DISCOUNT, BUSATTO and SILVER RIME emerges.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 16 favourites have reached the frame, statistics which includes four winners during the study period.

Draw factor (ten and a furlongs):
2013: 10-5-6 (11 ran-soft)
2012: 2-4-11-1 (16 ran-good to firm)
2011: 4-15-7-9 (17 ran-good to soft)
2010: 9-12-10-15 (18 ran-good)
2009: 7-10-11-14 (17 ran-good to firm)
2007: 14-20-17-16 (18 ran-good)
2006: 14-3-1-18 (17 ran-good to soft)
2005: 4-18-13-12 (19 ran-good)
2004: 8-10-1 (11 ran-soft)
2003: 2-4-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
2002: 9-4-2 (9 ran-good)
2001: 16-7-2-17 (19 ran-good)
2000: 1-16-10-12 (17 ran-good)
1999: 5-4-11 (11 ran-good)
1998: 3-9-5 (12 ran-good to firm)
1997: 1-14-9-4 (16 ran-good)

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Saturday
7--David O‘Meara
6--Richard Fahey 5--William Haggas 5--Kevin Ryan 4--Andrew Balding 4--Richard Hannon 4--Mark Johnston 3--Luca Cumani 3--Hughie Morrison 3--David Simcock 2--David Barron 2--Michael Bell 2--James Bethell 2--Marco Botti 2--Lady Cecil 2--Mick Channon 2--Peter Chapple-Hyam 2--Tom Dascombe 2--Tim Easterby 2--Ron Harris 2--David Marnane 2--Johnny Murtagh 2--Sir Michael Stoute 2--Roger Varian 1--Eric Alston 1--Michael Appleby 1--Alan Bailey 1--George Baker 1--David Brown 1--Karl Burke 1--Robert Cowell 1--Clive Cox 1--Tony Coyle 1--Brian Ellison 1--Ed de Giles 1--Charlie Hills 1--Dean Ivory 1--Timothy Jarvis 1--William Jarvis 1--Gay Kelleway 1--Sylvester Kirk 1--William Knight 1--M F De Kock 1--Tony Martin 1--Willie Mullins 1--Peter Niven 1--Aidan O’Brien 1--Jamie Osborne 1--Hugo Palmer 1--Linda Perratt 1--Sir Mark Prescott 1--John Quinn 1--Bryan Smart 1--Tommy Stack 1--Saeed Bin Suroor 1--James Tate 1--Ed Vaughan

106 declared runners

2014 average toteplacepot returns thus far (938 meetings):
Favourites failing to reach the frame in all six races: £25,039.47 (3)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,008.86 (21)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,129.86 (103)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £456.78 (245)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £178.51 (279)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £68.56 (202)
All 6 Placepot races with at least one favourite in the frame: £15.36 (85)

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2014:
Cheltenham--£44,616.30--Friday March 14
Pontefract--£26,272.90--Tuesday April 8
Sandown--£20,601.40--Saturday July 5
Warwick (NH)--£6,946.60--Sunday March 9
Ripon--£6,876.30--Saturday August 16
Doncaster (flat)--£6,810.90--Saturday August 16
Redcar--£5,730.00--Wednesday July 30
Wolverhampton--£5,122.30--Friday April 11
Southwell (NH)--£4,820.20--Thursday January 22
Doncaster (flat)--£3,701.90--Friday April 25
Lingfield (Mix Turf/AW)--£3,620.50--Saturday June 28
Wetherby--£3,148.90--Thursday May 29
Bath--£3,032.20--Friday August 1
York--£2,892.80--Saturday June 14
Wincanton--£2,871.50--Thursday May 8
Yarmouth--£2,868.90--Monday April 21
Newmarket--£2,867.90--Thursday July 11
Fontwell--£2,743.60--Tuesday June 10
Stratford--£2,571.90--Saturday March 22
Uttoxeter--£2,507.80--Thursday June 12
Newmarket (July)--£2,433.40--Saturday August 2
Cheltenham--£2,414.40--Thursday April 17
Windsor--£2,390.20--Monday August 4
Fontwell--£2,374.70--Friday May 2
Lingfield (A/W)--£2,320.10--Saturday March 22
Stratford--£2,142.70--Tuesday July 1
Catterick (NH)--£2,105.50--Wednesday January 1
Bath--£2,090.60--Wednesday June 25
Brighton--£2,008.10--Thursday August 7

Doncaster (Flat)--£2,002.40--Sunday March 30

Flat Turf venues:
Total Flat Turf meetings (£469.54--406 meetings)
Ascot (£268.57--14 meetings)
Ayr (£320.93--12 meetings)
Bath (£526.12--14 meetings)
Beverley (£469.99--14 meetings)
Brighton (£271.07--15 meetings)
Carlisle (£370.83--10 meetings)
Catterick (£184.07--12 meetings)
Chepstow (£139.70--9 meetings)
Chester (£177.00--11 meetings)
Doncaster (£860.95--17 meetings)
Epsom (£123.65--7 meetings)
Ffos Las (£671.92--4 meetings)
Goodwood (£176.95--13 meetings)
Hamilton (£151.47--12 meetings)
Haydock (£331.80--17 meetings)
Leicester (£119.78--15 meetings)
Lingfield (£877.00--1 meeting)
Musselburgh (£327.88--13 meetings)
Newbury (£201.06--13 meetings)
Newcastle (£209.12--11 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile) (£155.70--8 meetings)
Newmarket (July) (£573.04--20 meetings)
Nottingham (£293.46--16 meetings)
Pontefract (£2,758.29--11 meetings)
Redcar (£927.04--11 meetings)
Ripon (£556.59--13 meetings)
Salisbury (£266.50--11 meetings)
Sandown (£1,923.39--12 meetings)
Thirsk (£330.64--12 meetings)
Warwick (£42.90--5 meetings--only two races contested at the May 20 meeting)
Windsor (£266.47--22 meetings)
Yarmouth (£404.60--19 meetings)
York (£605.91--12 meetings)

Mixed Turf and All-weather venues:
Lingfield (£358.34--12 meetings)

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£205.10--199 meetings)
Kempton (£100.68--48 meetings)
Kempton NH Bumper (£134.05--2 meetings)
Lingfield (£167.78--58 meetings)
Lingfield NH Bumper (£27.70--1 meeting)
Southwell (£142.79--39 meetings)
Southwell NH Bumper (£17.00--1 meeting)
Wolverhampton (£253.76--50 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£469.45--330 meetings)
Aintree (£565.72--5 meetings)
Ascot (£144.23--3 meetings)
Ayr (£360.01--8 meetings)
Bangor (£237.91--7 meetings)
Carlisle (£522.96--6 meetings)
Cartmel (£127.68--5 meetings)
Catterick (£375.36--7 meetings)
Cheltenham (£5,553.28--9 meetings)
Chepstow (£197.61--7 meetings)
Doncaster (£290.41--7 meetings)
Exeter (£332.49--7 meetings)
Fakenham (£160.26--7 meetings)
Ffos Las (£312.36--11 meetings)
Fontwell (£606.08--10 meetings)
Haydock (£817.85--4 meetings)
Hexham (£336.10--9 meetings)
Huntingdon (£131.48--8 meetings)
Kelso (£297.68--7 meetings)
Kempton (£133.63--6 meetings)
Leicester (£382.19--5 meetings)
Ludlow (£93.57--8 meetings)
Market Rasen (£92.33--14 meetings)
Musselburgh (£372.37--6 meetings)
Newbury (£209.60--6 meetings)
Newcastle (£454.85--6 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£211.80--13 meetings)
Perth (£253.19--12 meetings)
Plumpton (£267.18--8 meetings)
Sandown (£205.02--4 meetings)
Southwell (£510.09--13 meetings)
Sedgefield (£219.09--10 meetings)
Stratford (£440.21--12 meetings)
Taunton (£144.18--9 meetings)
Towcester (£112.88--10 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£332.53--13 meetings)
Warwick (£1,287.67--6 meetings)
Wetherby (£387.17--10 meetings)
Wincanton (£439.67--10 meetings)
Worcester (£192.75--14 meetings)

Mixed Flat and NH venues:
Haydock (£311.40--1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2014 stands at £418.21 (938 meetings) up to and including Thursday August 21