Mal Boyle's Placepot picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: December 24 2014, 8:26 GMT

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his analysis ahead of Friday's meeting at Kempton Park.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.

His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 1700 GMT the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.

KEMPTON – BOXING DAY

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2013: £2,951.60 (7 favourites: No winners--2 placed--5 unplaced)

12.50 Before the analysis, I thought I would draw your attention to the additional work featured alongside the number of runners that trainers have decalred for this meeting which can be found below, statistics which might bring about more winners for all of us against the 'old enemy'. Four and five-year-olds have secured 14 of the last 16 renewals (even split) of this opening event. Nicky Henderson has secured four contests during the study period whilst the Lambourn trainer had saddled the three previous silver medallists before returning to winning ways three years ago. Nicky saddles BRINGITHOMEMINTY on this occasion, though Nico De Boinville's mount looks to have plenty to do with impressive winners JOLLYALLAN and ARZAL also having been declared. Willie Mullins sends Sempre Medici over from Ireland but this could simply be a fact finding mission (not too many opportunities over the Irish Sea fro this type of horse), whereby Ruby's mount might represent poor value for money, especially around this quick circuit.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have obliged via the last 15 renewals, and aside from a 20/1 winner in 1999, the biggest priced gold medallist during the period was returned at 12/1 (last year). 12 of the last 16 market leaders finished in the frame.

1.25 Six and seven-year-olds have won seven of the last 10 renewals between them whilst 10 of the last 12 winners have carried weights of 11-1 or more. Nicky Henderson has won four of the last seven renewals and it's worth noting that the trainer was not represented on one of the other occasions. Nicky has offered the green light to RIVER MAIGUE this time around, the seven-year-old having finished 'in the three' in seven of his nine starts (two wins). If Nicky is to be denied another success, the likeliest party-poopers appear to be STELLA NOTION and LIBERTY COURT.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have snared gold via 13 renewals to date, though just three of the other 11 market leaders additionally claimed a toteplacepot position.

2.00 Six-year-olds have won six of the last 10 renewals of this event. Paul Nicholls would love to win the 'Kauto Star' for obvious reasons and the trainer looks to have something of a strangle hold on the race this year, saddling likely hot pot SAPHIR DU RHEU and VIRAK. The ground might be drying out too quickly for Coneygree, whereby six-year-old CARRAIG MOR might be more of a threat to Paul and his relevant connections.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last 17 market leaders have prevailed, whilst 11 favourites secured toteplacepot positions. 13 of the last 17 winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less.

2.35 Six-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals of this Christmas Hurdle and on paper, Paul Nicholls looks set to dominate this race (as well as the previous event on the card) via his six-year-old declarations FAUGHEEN and IRVINE. What I am committed to report however is that all 11 horses saddled by Paul in this race during the last decade have been beaten. Conversely, Nicky Henderson goes in search of a five timer here with his impressive Ascot (handicap) winner SIGN OF A VICTORY. Nick's raider would have to 'come on a bundle' to shake the other other pair up but in going for his 'nap hand' in the contest, Nicky had an awful lot of horses to choose from and he has sided with his promising five-year-old inmate. Purple Bay could run well at a big price too. The is not enough of a test for Sgt Reckless who demands a stiffer track to bring out his best, whilst only the bookmakers will be cheering on course and distance winner Blue Heron I'll wager. An absolutely fascinating contest.

Favourite factor: Four of the last 11 favourites have won, though the previous four market leaders were all beaten during the study period. Eight of the last 15 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

3.10 Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last 15 renewals of the King George whereby CHAMPAGNE FEVER has to be included in the toteplacepot mix but as for having a bet from a win perspective, I'll swerve the contest in all probability. The other vintage representative in the field is the admirably consistent John Spirit though with Jonjo's yard completely out of form at present, this event looks beyond Ritchie McLernon's mount which would probably have been the case anyway, however Jonjo's horses were running. Defending champion SILVINIACO CONTI looks sure to be on the premises turning for home, whilst fellow Ditcheat inmate AL FEROF might take care of last year's beaten joint favourites Cue Card and Dynaste for the bronze medal.

Favourite factor: Although nine favourites have won the King George during the last 16 years, seven of the other 10 market leaders failed to finish in the frame. Only Jair Du Cochet (pulled up in 2003 behind the much underrated Edredon Bleu), Kauto Star (2010) and Long Run (last year) had failed to snare gold via the ‘jollies perspective’ in the previous 11 years, before last year's afore mentioned joint beaten favourites Cue Card & Dynaste.

3.45 Six of the last eight winners of the finale have carried a minimum burden of 11-2, whilst Nicky Henderson (THEINVAL) has secured three of the last eight contests. Four-year-old ALTERNATIF who makes his British debut for David Pipe. I landed a right touch with a fellow vintage winner last year and David has a knack of placing such individuals to winning effect at the first time of asking. Others to consider over your Christmas pudding include DAVERON and KILMURVY.

Favourite factor: Three of the last nine favourites have won, whilst six of the 14 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

** = joint favourite; *** = co-favourite (where applicable).

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Boxing Day

7--Paul Nicholls (10 winners at this two day fixture during the last five years)
4--Nicky Henderson (20 winners)
4--Philip Hobbs (2 winners)
3--Mick Channon (No winners)
3--John Ferguson (1 winner)
3--Willie Mullins (No winners)
3--Colin Tizzard (No winners)
2--Tom George (No winners)
2--Alan King (2 winners)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (1 winner)
2--David Pipe (3 winners)
2--Jeremy Scott (No winners)
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (No winners)
2--Tim Vaughan (No winners)
1--Mark Bradstock (No winners)
1--Henry Daly (1 winner)
1--Harry Fry (No winners)
1--Nick Gifford (No winners)
1--Martin Keighley (1 winner)
1--Lawney Hill (No winners)
1--Charlie Longsdon (2 winners)
1--Gary Moore (2 winners)
1--Dan Skelton (No winners)
1--Tom Symonds (1 winner)
1--Harry Whittington (No winners)

52 declared runners

2014 average toteplacepot returns thus far (1402 meetings):
Favourites failing to reach the frame in all six races: £13,515.85 (6)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,279.94 (32)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £973.17 (148)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £487.01 (372)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £194.46 (417)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £69.83 (302)
All 6 Placepot races with at least one favourite in the frame: £15.43 (125)

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2014:
Cheltenham--£44,616.30--Friday March 14
Pontefract--£26,272.90--Tuesday April 8
Sandown--£20,601.40--Saturday July 5
Redcar--£9,925.20--Tuesday September 9
Wetherby--£8,998.70--Friday October 31
Warwick (NH)--£6,946.60--Sunday March 9
Ripon--£6,876.30--Saturday August 16
Doncaster (flat)--£6,810.90--Saturday August 16
Redcar--£5,730.00--Wednesday July 30
Bath--£5,358.00--Sunday October 19
Wolverhampton--£5,122.30--Friday April 11
Southwell (NH)--£4,820.20--Thursday January 22
Warwick--£4,655.30--Thursday December 11
Chester--£4,495.50--Saturday September 13
Redcar--£4,473.30--Tuesday November 4
Hamilton--£4,433.40--Friday August 22
Brighton--£4,199.50--Monday December 1
Brighton--£4,086.10--Tuesday October 7
Wolverhampton--£3,703.10--Friday October 17
Doncaster (flat)--£3,701.90--Friday April 25
Lingfield (Mix Turf/AW)--£3,620.50--Saturday June 28
Newmarket (Rowley Mile)--£3,201.20--Saturday October 11
Wetherby--£3,148.90--Thursday May 29
York--£3,065.20--Friday August 22
Bath--£3,032.20--Friday August 1
York--£2,892.80--Saturday June 14
Wincanton--£2,871.50--Thursday May 8
Yarmouth--£2,868.90--Monday April 21
Newmarket--£2,867.90--Thursday July 11
Fontwell--£2,743.60--Tuesday June 10
Salisbury--£2,701.70--Wednesday October 1
Southwell (A/W)--£2,677.90--Thursday December 18
Stratford--£2,571.90--Saturday March 22
Uttoxeter--£2,507.80--Thursday June 12
Newmarket (July)--£2,433.40--Saturday August 2
Cheltenham--£2,414.40--Thursday April 17
Windsor--£2,390.20--Monday August 4
Fontwell--£2,374.70--Friday May 2
Lingfield (A/W)--£2,320.10--Saturday March 22
Yarmouth--£2,176.60--Sunday August 24
Hamilton--£2,172.70--Monday September 29
Stratford--£2,142.70--Tuesday July 1
Catterick (NH)--£2,105.50--Wednesday January 1
Bath--£2,090.60--Wednesday June 25
Kempton (A/W)--£2,044.20--Thursday October 23
Brighton--£2,008.10--Thursday August 7
Doncaster (Flat)--£2,002.40--Sunday March 30

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£229.29--310 meetings)
Kempton (£126.93--87 meetings)
Kempton NH Bumper (£134.05--2 meetings)
Lingfield (£181.98--74 meetings)
Lingfield NH Bumper (£27.70--1 meeting)
Southwell (£195.18--48 meetings)
Southwell NH Bumper (£17.00--1 meeting)
Wolverhampton (£301.18--95 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£390.70--528 meetings)
Aintree (£443.16--8 meetings)
Ascot (£107.82--8 meetings)
Ayr (£330.61--11 meetings)
Bangor (£236.50--13 meetings)
Carlisle (£315.24--12 meetings)
Cartmel (£126.89--7 meetings)
Catterick (£340.20--9 meetings)
Cheltenham (£3,171.02--16 meetings)
Chepstow (£148.13--13 meetings)
Doncaster (£288.51--11 meetings)
Exeter (£264.41--14 meetings)
Fakenham (£171.02--10 meetings)
Ffos Las (£297.44--16 meetings)
Fontwell (£362.44--19 meetings)
Haydock (£533.68--7 meetings)
Hexham (£360.54--14 meetings)
Huntingdon (£122.27--15 meetings)
Kelso (£291.00--11 meetings)
Kempton (£113.04--9 meetings)
Leicester (£237.73--9 meetings)
Lingfield (£126.87--3 meetings)
Ludlow (£110.90--14 meetings)
Market Rasen (£156.95--19 meetings)
Musselburgh (£260.48--10 meetings)
Newbury (£338.98--10 meetings)
Newcastle (£333.09--10 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£203.77--18 meetings)
Perth (£262.16--16 meetings)
Plumpton (£281.65--13 meetings)
Sandown (£529.72--7 meetings)
Sedgefield (£204.95--19 meetings)
Southwell (£491.65--19 meetings)
Stratford (£346.15--17 meetings)
Taunton (£110.34--13 meetings)
Towcester (£908.78--15 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£249.92--21 meetings)
Warwick (£1,028.89--10 meetings)
Wetherby (£846.38--16 meetings)
Wincanton (£324.99--15 meetings)
Worcester (£190.23--21 meetings)

Mixed Flat and NH venues:
Ffos Las (£168.90--1 meeting)
Haydock (£311.40--1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2014 stands at £396.33 (1402 meetings) up to and including Thursday December 25