Mal Boyle's Placepot picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: May 5 2015, 19:42 BST

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his analysis ahead of Wednesday's card at Chester.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of How To Win at the Tote Placepot and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of racing's most popular pool bet.

He'll post his overnight Placepot analysis here around 1700 BST each day with final selections published at approximately 1000 BST on race day.

CHESTER – MAY 6

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2014: £68.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2.10 Horses drawn wide have dominated the last two renewals which is a huge contrast to what has transpired in the opening ‘Lily Agnes’ event down the years. I might be wrong, though this looks to be a weaker event than is normally the case, with northern trainers Richard Fahey (ASTLEY HALL) and Mark Johnston (RAH RAH & FASHIONABLE SPIRIT pleased not to see potential Group horses travelling up from the south. The pick of the opposition might prove to be CITY OF STARS. If forced to nominate one horse, I guess I would nominate ASTLEY HALL given that Richard Fahey would have had any number of fillies that he could have got ready for the race in recent weeks, whilst the form of her Redcar victory received a boost by the success of fourth placed Be Bop Tango in Catterick's opening race on Tuesday evening.

'Favourite factor': 13 of the 20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (seven winners) during the last 17 years. 15 of the last 17 winners have scored at 9/1 or less.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):
10-9-3 (10 ran-good
8-9-10 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-2-8 (8 ran-soft)
2-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)
5-3 (7 ran--good)
5-7-2 (8 ran--good to firm)
2-5 (6 ran--good)
3-1 (7 ran-good to firm)
5-2 (7 ran-good to firm)
1-2-6 (10 ran-good to soft)
1-2-3 (9 ran-good to soft)
1-7 (7 ran-good)
3-2-4 (9 ran-good to firm)
8-1-2 (9 ran-good to firm)
2-5 (7 ran-good)
5-1-3 (9 ran-good to firm)
2-1 (7 ran-good)

2.40 Aidan O’Brien has won this event three times in the last seven years (not represented two years ago) and DIAMONDSANDRUBIES should prove to be the filly to beat in this renewal of the Cheshire Oaks. Aidan invariably saddles winners at this fixture (two gold medallists in each of the last two years) and his Fastnet Rock representative has shown a degree of improvement on each of her three assignments. Ryan Moore's mount remains in the English and Irish Oaks races at the time of writing. John Gosden saddled the 2010 winner though it's difficult to get a handle on his Chelmsford winner ENTERTAINMENT, whilst stable companion ZAMOURA cannot be totally discounted at the overnight stage. SWEET DREAM and VICTORIA POLLARD are added to the overnight equation in what prove to be another sub standard contest on the card.

'Favourite factor': 14 of the 20 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (eight winners) during the study period.

'Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):
2-4-9 (9 ran-good)
7-9-6 (10 ran-good to firm)
6-2-1 (9 ran-soft)
8-1-3 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-4 (7 ran--good)
2-6 (7 ran--good to firm)
4-1-2 (9 ran--good)
4-6-11 (11 ran-good to firm)
1-10-2 (12 ran-good to firm)
4-3 (6 ran-good to soft)
1-2-4 (9 ran-good to soft)
6-7-4 (9 ran-good to firm)
4-1 (5 ran-good to firm)
3-1 (7 ran-good to firm)
1-4 (5 ran-good)
7-6-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-2-8 (8 ran-good)

2.40 This is one of the few ‘staying’ races on the entire racing calendar that is dependent upon the draw (to a fashion) and we ignore the stall positions at our potential peril. Low numbers invariably rule the roost as six of the last eight results (see below) confirm. Six-year-olds have won this event four times in the last seven years, whilst seven of the last nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2. QUICK JACK (drawn 9/17) and LADY KASHAAN (10) possess ticks in both (vintage/weight) trend boxes this time around and this pair should give investors a decent run for their collective monies. Other of interest include ZAFAYAN (7), GABRIAL'S KING (3) and BUTHELEZI (4).

'Favourite factor': Three of the last 16 favourites have won the Chester Cup, whilst seven of the 20 market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

'Draw factor' (eighteen and a half furlongs):
4-11-2-5 (17 ran-good)
2-7-11-14 (17-good to firm)
13-8-19-4 (16 ran-soft)
1-3-16-19 (17 ran-good to firm)
5-16-6-1 (17 ran--good)
4-8-7-6 (16 ran--good to firm)
13-11-8 (17 ran-good to firm)
1-2-11-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
15-8-11-2 (17 ran-good to soft)
4-18-11-5 (17 ran-good to soft)
2-3-15-4 (16 ran-good to firm)
7-8-6-15 (18 ran-good to firm)
5-4-16-13 (17 ran-good to firm)
4-3-17-5 (18 ran-good)
13-16-9-8 (16 ran-good to firm)
9-10-3-17 (18 ran-good)

3.45 Only on four occasions during the last 17 years has a runner emerging from either trap one or stall number two failed to gain a toteplacepot position in this event. Even though that scenario occurred for the fourth time in 2013, the next stall (three) housed the 12/1 winner. The haul of just three gold medals in the process is nothing to write home about but the toteplacepot stat is impressive given that an average of 13 horses have contested the race during the study period. COME ON DAVE (1) and course and distance winner CRUISETOTHEMILIT (2) are the relevant horses on this occasion and it might take an act of God to prevent me from including both runners in my permutation come sun up. Both horses fit the positive weights trends (the last 11 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3) and others catching the eye at the time of writing are BLITHE SPIRIT (6) and (possibly) LEXI'S HERO (4).

'Favourite factor': 18 of the 19 favourites have been beaten since 1997, whilst 10 market leaders have finished in the frame during the period.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):
4-1-7 (12 ran-good)
3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)
2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)
7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
3-7-5 (13 ran--good)
4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)
7-2-8 (14 ran--good)
6-7-4 (13 ran-good)
2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)
6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)
4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)
1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)
3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)
8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)
6-4-1 (12 ran-good)
6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)
4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

4.20 John Gosden (not represented every year) has won six of the last 12 renewals and KEBLE might improve the ratio on behalf of the yard still further. I wrote just about the same words in each of the last two years before John saddled winners at 5/1 & 11/8. That said, Aidan O'Brien's Galileo representative SIR ISSAC NEWTON looked the real deal when only finding subsequent winner Zawraq too good on his Leopardstown debut in October. Quoted at around the 10/1 mark to win the Epsom Derby, connections will need to witness an impressive effort if they are to get as carried away as the bookmakers have over the winter period. It's great to see Barry Hills plying his trade on the Roodee (albeit in tragic circumstances given John's passing last year) and we can expect BAYLAY to be up for the fight accordingly.

'Favourite factor': 12 of the last 15 winners have scored at 3/1 or less. Favourites have won eight of the last 10 contests, whilst 14 of the last 18 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

'Draw factor' (ten furlongs):
8-1-4 (11 ran-good)
7-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)
11-7-2 (13 ran-soft)
6-3-8-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
2-8 (7 ran--good)
10-1-7 (11 ran--good to firm)
2-4-5 (9 ran--good)
4-10-1 (11 ran-good)
7-3-8 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-1 (6 ran-good to soft)
3-1-2 (8 ran-good to soft)
6 (4 ran-good to firm)
7-4 (7 ran-good to firm)
1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)
4-1 (5 ran-good)
2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-8-3 (10 ran-good)

4.55 Dr Marwan Koukash has his colours primed for this meeting as stated a while ago when announcing that this was his ‘Royal Ascot’ fixture of the year. The famous grey colours (with an orange star) will be worn by MASAMAH (second in this race twelve months ago) on this occasion. That said, five-year-olds have claimed all three renewals thus far whereby LUCKY BEGGAR, DUTCH MASTERPIECE and RENE MATHIS (the other Koukash runner in the race) are under consideration as I reach for the corkscrew.

'Favourite factor': Two of the three favourites have secured gold and silver medals alongside toteplacepot positions. Last year's 15/8 market leader let the side down by finishing out of the money in the toteplacepot finale.

'Draw factor' (five furlongs):
3-4-6 (9 ran-good)
3-2 (7 ran-good to firm)
6-7 (7 ran-soft)

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Chester card on Wednesday

9--Richard Fahey
5--David Evans
4--Andrew Balding
4--Tom Dascombe
4--John Gosden
4--Charlie Hills
2--Eric Alston
2--Michael Bell
2--Marco Botti
2--Robert Cowell
2--Ed Dunlop
2--Tim Easterby
2--Brian Ellison
2--Mark Johnston
2--Aidan O'Brien
2--Sir Michael Stoute
1--Michael Appleby
1--Ralph Beckett
1--Alan Berry
1--Mrs M Dowdall Blake
1--Clive Brittain
1--Lady Cecil
1--Paul Cole
1--Clive Cox
1--Michael Dods
1--Ann Duffield
1--Rae Guest
1--Barry Hills
1--Eve Johnson Houghton
1--Adrian Paul Keatley
1--Daniel Kubler
1--Berneard Llewellyn
1--Tony Martin
1--Phil McEntee
1--Ed McMahon
1--Paul Midgley
1--Gary Moore
1--Patrick Morris
1--Michael Mullineaux
1--Hugo Palmer
1--Kevin Ryan
1--Derek Shaw
1--Saeed Bin Suroor
1--Alan Swinbank
1--Bill Turner
1--Dermot Weld
1--Ian Williams

81 declared runners

2015 average toteplacepot returns thus far (440 meetings):
One meeting with no favourites in the frame: £1,196.50 (1)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,951.18 (12)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,037.77 (37)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £473.68 (127)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £189.32 (143)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £65.54 (89)
6 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £20.06 (31)

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Flat venues:
Total Flat meetings (£454.07--55 meetings)
Ascot (£143.80--1 meeting)
Ayr (£779.60--1 meeting)
Bath (£163.83--3 meetings)
Beverley (£56.30--3 meetings)
Brighton (£451.80--2 meetings)
Catterick (£1.122.25--2 meetings)
Chepstow (£7.40--1 meeting)
Doncaster (£613.77--5 meetings)
Epsom (£78.90--1 meeting)
Goodwood (£257.60--1 meeting)
Hamilton (£1,143.80--1 meeting)
Haydock (£801.60--1 meeting)
Leicester (£1,089.10--2 meetings)
Musselburgh (£1,472.60--3 meetings)
Newbury (£68.85--2 meetings)
Newcastle (£1,504.20--2 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile)--£195.50--4 meetings)
Nottingham (£557.30--3 meetings)
Pontefract (£103.73--3 meetings)
Redcar (£88.46--3 meetings)
Ripon (£217.15--2 meetings)
Salisbury (£17.50--1 meeting)
Sandown (£682.50--1 meeting)
Thirsk (£161.65--2 meetings)
Wetherby (£29.70--1 meeting)
Windsor (£156.17--4 meetings)

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£349.73--149 meetings)
Chelmsford (£416.16--22 meetings)
Kempton (£240.64--21 meetings)
Lingfield (£523.13--36 meetings)
Southwell (£430.74--25 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£184.50--45 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£324.45--236 meetings)
Aintree (£516.60--3 meetings)
Ascot (£264.97--3 meetings)
Ayr (£413.90--9 meetings)
Bangor (£1,949.31--6 meetings)
Carlisle (£126.92--5 meetings)
Catterick (£95.21--6 meetings)
Cheltenham (£257.30--9 meetings)
Chepstow (£318.67--9 meetings)
Doncaster (£161.87--6 meetings)
Exeter (£456.53--9 meetings)
Fakenham (£144.62--7 meetings)
Ffos Las (£125.07--7 meetings)
Fontwell (£66.21--6 meetings)
Haydock (£469.17--4 meetings)
Hexham (£139.23--4 meetings)
Huntingdon (£110.49--7 meetings)
Kelso (£89.55--5 meetings)
Kempton (£73.66--7 meetings)
Leicester (£82.10--5 meetings)
Lingfield (£85.65--2 meetings)
Ludlow (£131.44--8 meetings)
Market Rasen (£326.29--6 meetings)
Musselburgh (£98.40--6 meetings)
Newbury (£153.73--7 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£354.25--4 meetings)
Newcastle (£201.99--7 meetings)
Perth (£154.33--3 meetings)
Plumpton (£299.00--9 meetings)
Sandown (£321.09--6 meetings)
Sedgefield (£61.03--8 meetings)
Southwell (£28.80--5 meetings)
Stratford (£356.90--4 meetings)
Taunton (£248.98--12 meetings)
Towcester (£75.14--5 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£1,253.25--5 meetings)
Warwick (£1,298.78--8 meetings)
Wetherby (£879.33--6 meetings)
Wincanton (£689.86--8 meetings)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2015 stands at £352.28 (440 meetings) up to and including Monday May 4