Mal Boyle's Placepot Picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: September 5 2015, 7:35 BST

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his selections for Saturday's meeting at Haydock.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of How To Win at the Tote Placepot and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis.

He'll assess the next day's leading meeting the previous afternoon/evening before posting selections the following morning, usually by 1000 BST.

HAYDOCK - SEPTEMBER 5

Race 1 (2.00pm): 3 (Hors De Combat), 5 (Moohaarib) & 4 (Master Carpenter)
Race 2 (2.35pm): 3 (Notarised), 4 (Blue Wave) & 7 (Battersea - NON-RUNNER)
Race 3 (3.10pm): 4 (Fast Track), 2, (Maljaa) & 5 (Green Door)
Race 4 (3.45pm): 9 (Adaay), 14, (Twilight Sun) & 16 (Interception)
Race 5 (4.20pm): 4 (Tawwaaq) & 6 (Vibrant Chords)
Race 6 (4.55pm): 5 (Manaafidh) & 4 (Foundation)

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2014: £188.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2.00 Four-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, statistics which include the lone vintage representative in 2012 (Thistle Bird) which won at 3/1. Vintage representatives are 2/1 to extend the good run before form is taken into account, with HORS DE COMBAT preferred TO MOOHAARIB and MASTER CARPENTER to at the time of writing. IVAWOOD is the obvious threat to the four-year-olds, especially if conditions dry out on the lead up to flag fall.

'Favourite factor': Eight of the 14 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five (3/1-3/1-15/8-15/8-11/10) winners during the study period. That said, search parties are still to looking for the unplaced (Richard Hannon trained) 10/11 market leader who let punters down in 2013.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

6-1 (6 ran-good)
4-10-7 (8 ran-good to soft)
7-2 (7 ran-firm)
1-9-3 (9 ran-good to firm)
1-6-7 (8 ran-good)
1-3-4 (10 ran-soft)
9-1-8 (9 ran-good to firm)
6-3 (5 ran-heavy)
3-2-4 (11 ran-good)
5-9-1 (8 ran-good)
5-6 (5 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the opening race:

Balty Boys (5 runs - No wins - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Captain Cat (2 runs - 1 win & 1 unplaced)
Master Carpenter (2 runs - No wins - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

2.35 Mark Johnston has saddled the winner four times in the last 11 years (without being represented twelve months ago), with the trainer having declared two inmates this time around, namely NOTARISED and BLUE WAVE. Both horses have won 'recently' on good to soft ground which if I had to have a bet on the resulting going verdict, would be for a yielding surface emerging by flag fall. If the ground was on the fast side, BATTERSEA could attract my eye, whilst HASSLE could make the frame at rewarding odds. Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured seven of the last ten contests and I have named my short list accordingly.

'Favourite factor': Six favourites have won to date via 14 renewals, whilst 11 of the 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

Haydock record of runners in the second race:

Angel Gabrial (1 run - unplaced)
Excellent Result (1 run - unplaced)
Notarised (1 run - won)
Blue Wave (2 runs - No wins - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Totalize (1 run - placed)
Great Hall (3 runs - 1 win - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Battersea (2 runs - No wins - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Pressure Point (2 runs - both placed)
Hassle (1 run - unplaced)
Aramist (2 runs - No wins - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Gabrial's Star (4 runs - 1 win & 3 unplaced)
Dark Ruler (1 run - unplaced)
Awaywiththegreys (2 runs - 1 win & 1 unplaced)

3.10 David Barron only saddled two winners from 50 runners during the month of August and it is an unfortunate fact for David's supporters that his runners generally enjoy their best from in May and June if recent seasons are taken into account. That said, I'm willing to give David's Rail Link gelding FAST TRACK a chance in this grade/company, especially as the last four renewals have been won by horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-2. Those statistics also bring MALJAA, FAST ACT and GREEN DOOR into the equation.

'Favourite factor': Just three of the 17 favourites has won, whilst 12 of the 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. Seven of the last 13 winners have been returned in double figures.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

4-6-5 (11 ran- good)
8-10-11 (10 ran-good to soft)
13-15-9 (14 ran - firm)
1-8-12 (13 ran-good to firm)
7-2-16 (12 ran-good to firm)
1-6-7-3 (16 ran-good to soft)
11-10-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)
5-7-2 (10 ran-heavy)
6-8-12 (15 ran-good)
16-13-12-6 (16 ran-good)
6-16-8 (15 ran-good to soft)
5-21-10-3 (23 ran-good to firm)
6-8-7-10 (21 ran-heavy)
8-9-5-7 (16 ran-heavy)
10-8-9 (13 ran-good to firm)
13-8-9 (12 ran-good)

Haydock record of runners in the third race:

Maljaa (1 run - placed)
Silvanus (1 run - unplaced)
Fast Track (1 run - placed)
Distant Past (2 runs - No wins - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
B Fifty Two (1 run - unplaced)
Desert Ace (1 run - unplaced)
Midlander (1 run - unplaced)
Blithe Spirit (1 run - unplaced)
Snap Shots (2 runs - 1 win & 1 unplaced)
My Name Is Rio (3 runs - No wins - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
Lexington Place (3 runs - 1 win & 2 unplaced)
Seve (1 run - unplaced)
Ballesteros (6 runs - 2 wins - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

3.45 Eight of the last 13 winners have been returned in double figures in this Group 1 event, which certainly confirms my feelings that sprinting at the top level has left a lot to be desired for a number of years. Three-year-olds have held the call during the last decade having claimed four gold medals, with the pick of this year's contender probably proving to be ADAAY, INTERCEPTION and Henry Candy's unbeaten Raven's Pass representative TWILIGHT SUN. The trio are listed in order of preference at the time of writing. Last year's winner G FORCE has failed to score via four subsequent assignments, whereby David O'Meara's raider runs off just a three pound higher mark.

'Favourite factor': Five of the last 18 favourites have prevailed, though just two of the other 13 market leaders have claimed additional toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

10-18-13 (17 ran-good)
2-14-13 (13 ran-good to soft)
3-12-1 (13 ran-firm)
9-15-13 (16 ran-good to firm)
14-7-4 (13 ran-good to firm)
13-12-8 (14 ran-good to soft)
Race was contested at Doncaster in 2008 - draw stats do not apply.
6-1-7 (14 ran-good to firm)
10-3-4 (11 ran-heavy)
4-17-7 (17 ran-good)
14-5-4 (19 ran-good)
7-5-9 (10 ran-good to soft)
10-7-11 (14 ran-good to firm)
9-6-10 (12 ran-heavy)
7-12-3 (13 ran-heavy)
16-10-5 (16 ran-good to firm)
5-4-9 (13 ran-good)
9-3-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the fourth race:

Danzeno (1 run - unplaced)
G Force (2 runs - 1 win & 1 unplaced)
Gordon Lord Byron (3 runs - 1 win & 2 placed)
Pearl Secret (3 runs - 1 win - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Sole Power (5 runs - 1 win - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Adaay (1 run - won)
Mattmu (2 runs - 1 win & 1 unplaced)
Interception (1 run - placed)

4.20 Six of the eight winners of this Nursery event have carried weights of 9-2 or less, as have 17 of the 22 horses which have finished in the frame down the years. Three of the 10 runners 'qualify' via the weight trend this time around and I am finding it difficult to split the relevant horses. If pushed to make the decision this side of midnight, I would opt for TAWWAAQ to get the better of VIBRANT CHORDS and CELEBRATION in what will probably prove to be a tight finish, as is so often the case in Nursery events. DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT is the 'dark horse' in the line up. given his dual beaten favourite record though to be entirely fair to Richard Fahey's Dream Ahead colt, the two relevant defeats have been registered by a neck and a short head.

'Favourite factor': Only four of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (7/2) winner.

Draw factor (six furlongs): 9-8-4 (9 ran-good)
9-8 (6 ran-good to soft)>br/> 1-10-6 (10 ran-firm)
1-2-6 (9 ran-good to firm)
3-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)
12-9-7 (15 ran-good to soft)
3-12-16 (14 ran-good to firm)
6-1 (6 ran-heavy)

Haydock record of runners in the fifth race:

Wayward Hoof (2 runs - 1 win & 1 unplaced)

4.55 'Team Hannon' have secured three gold and two silver medallists in the race thus far alongside one of the bronze variety, whereby MANAAFIDH is the first name on the team sheet for the toteplacepot finale. That said, course and distance winner FOUNDATION could be anything representing Sir Mark Prescott, whilst the declaration of CAPE LOVE adds interest to proceedings.

'Favourite factor': Seven market leaders to date (via six renewals) in which four gold medals have been secured alongside two of the silver variety.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

6-2 (5 ran-good)
6-4 (5 ran-good to soft)
1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)
5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)
3-8 (5 ran-good)
1-2 (6 ran-soft)

Haydock record of runners in the toteplacepot finale:

Foundation (1 run - won)

** = joint favourite; *** = co-favourite (where applicable).

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Haydock card on Saturday

7 - Richard Fahey
6 - Mark Johnston
5 - Richard Hannon
5 - Roger Varian
4 - Marco Botti
3 - Michael Dods
3 - Brian Ellison
3 - John Gosden
3 - Charlie Hills
3 - David O'Meara
3 - Saeed Bin Suroor
2 - David Barron
2 - Karl Burke
2 - Henry Candy
2 - Tom Dascombe
2 - William Haggas
2 - Sir Mark Prescott
2 - Kevin Ryan
2 - Alan Swinbank
1 - Eric Alston
1 - Michael Appleby
1 - George Baker
1 - Peter Bowen
1 - David Brown
1 - Ruth Carr
1 - Roger Charlton
1 - Robert Cowell
1 - Clive Cox
1 - Keith Dalgleish
1 - Ed Dunlop
1 - Tim Easterby
1 - James Fanshawe
1 - Kevin Frost
1 - Tom Hogan
1 - Iain Jardine
1 - David Lanigan
1 - Edward Lynam
1 - Brian Meehan
1 - Paul Midgley
1 - Rod Millman
1 - David Nicholls
1 - Aidan O'Brien

84 declared runners

2015 average toteplacepot returns thus far (1013 meetings):
Four meetings with no favourites in the frame: £924.37 (4)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,543.07 (23)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,045.93 (98)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £480.14 (268)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £289.94 (332)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £69.35 (214)
6 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £19.04 (73)
One meeting was abandoned after two races - left out of these calculations

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Flat venues:
Total Flat meetings (£397.36 - 441 meetings)
Ascot (£637.05 - 13 meetings)
Ayr (£621.48 - 12 meetings)
Bath (£161.37 - 17 meetings)
Beverley (£418.55 - 17 meetings)
Brighton (£1,201.32 - 17 meetings)
Carlisle (£202.39 - 11 meetings)
Catterick (£362.70 - 12 meetings)
Chepstow (£81.73 - 14 meetings)
Chester (£184.89 - 12 meetings)
Doncaster (£367.90 - 17 meetings)
Epsom (£764.87 - 9 meetings)
Ffos Las (£333.87 - 6 meetings)
Goodwood (£190.65 - 17 meetings)
Hamilton (£332.21 - 15 meetings)
Haydock (£399.99 - 18 meetings)
Leicester (£335.73 - 16 meetings)
Lingfield (£337.58 - 7 meetings)
Musselburgh (£489.87 - 13 meetings)
Newbury (£1,346.82 - 14 meetings)
Newcastle (£420.59 - 15 meetings)
Newmarket (July) - £428.33 - 20 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile) - £136.75 - 9 meetings)
Nottingham (£313.36 - 18 meetings)
Pontefract (£468.58 - 12 meetings)
Redcar (£115.84 - 12 meetings)
Ripon (£170.09 - 15 meetings)
Salisbury (£82.37 - 13 meetings)
Sandown (£140.94 - 14 meetings)
Thirsk (£178.66 - 15 meetings)
Wetherby (£19.10 - 4 meetings)
Windsor (£154.88 - 23 meetings)
Yarmouth (£32.30 - 1 meeting)
York (£1,055.31 - 14 meetings)

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£280.59 - 204 meetings)
Chelmsford (£314.70 - 34 meetings)
Kempton (£182.67 - 34 meetings)
Lingfield (£455.86 - 46 meetings)
Southwell (£413.50 - 28 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£172.04 - 62 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£379.17 - 355 meetings)
Aintree (£331.40 - 5 meetings)
Ascot (£264.97 - 3 meetings)
Ayr (£413.90 - 9 meetings)
Bangor (£1,324.18 - 9 meetings)
Carlisle (£122.35 - 6 meetings)
Cartmel (£279.53 - 8 meetings)
Catterick (£95.21 - 6 meetings)
Cheltenham (£257.30 - 9 meetings)
Chepstow (£318.67 - 9 meetings)
Doncaster (£161.87 - 6 meetings)
Exeter (£419.99 - 10 meetings)
Fakenham (£215.32 - 9 meetings)
Ffos Las (£132.92 - 10 meetings)
Fontwell (£253.17 - 12 meetings)
Haydock (£469.17 - 4 meetings)
Hexham (£181.43 - 9 meetings)
Huntingdon (£136.01 - 9 meetings)
Kelso (£113.90 - 7 meetings)
Kempton (£70.29 - 8 meetings)
Leicester (£82.10 - 5 meetings)
Lingfield (£85.65 - 2 meetings)
Ludlow (£131.99 - 9 meetings)
Market Rasen (£241.93 - 14 meetings)
Musselburgh (£98.40 - 6 meetings)
Newbury (£153.73 - 7 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£2,804.49 - 13 meetings)
Newcastle (£201.99 - 7 meetings)
Perth (£147.14 - 10 meetings)
Plumpton (£404.27 - 10 meetings)
Sandown (£321.09 - 6 meetings)
Sedgefield (£90.71 - 12 meetings)
Southwell (£508.29 - 14 meetings)
Stratford (£442.34 - 14 meetings)
Taunton (£248.98 - 12 meetings)
Towcester (£80.08 - 7 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£515.58 - 15 meetings)
Warwick (£1,135.76 - 10 meetings)
Wetherby (£666.03 - 8 meetings)
Wincanton (£575.61 - 10 meetings)
Worcester (£171.82 - 15 meetings)

Mixed Turf & A/W Flat meeting:
Lingfield (£413.01 - 12 meetings)

Mixed NH & Flat meeting:
Haydock (£1551.00 - 1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2015 stands at £385.04 (1013 meetings) up to and including Thursday September 3