Mal Boyle's Placepot picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: October 24 2014, 19:19 BST

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his analysiss for Saturday's meeting at Doncaster.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.

His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 1700 BST the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.

DONCASTER - OCTOBER 25

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2013: £195.80 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

1.40 The last 10 winners have carried a maximum of 9-2 whereby the top two horses are eliminated from my thoughts in this first division of a race which will also be contested as the final contest on the card. Richard Fahey saddles the first two of his 12 runners on the card and WITHERNSEA is the preferred option of the pair, with connections possibly having most to fear from the likes of INFLECTION and WE'LL SHAKE HANDS in this apprentice handicap.

Favourite factor: Just one of the last nine renewals has been won by a market leader, with only two of the last 10 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

2.10 Night Of Thunder won this race last year en route to his Newmarket Guineas success this season though unless one of the horses improves tremendously here, I doubt that we will be seeing next year's first classic winner of the 2015 season. That said, the Exceed And Excel colt SALT ISLAND could do no more than win on his debut at Winsdor by over three lengths, whilst PORTAMENTO is proving to be a decent juvenile yardstick. Throw GROWL into the mix and we have a race worth its place on Racing Post Trophy day.

Favourite factor: Four clear favourites, two joint market leaders and one co-favourite (of four) have scored in recent years. 12 of the 24 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period, whilst I am duty bound to remind you that the 4/6 favourite Sayif finished last of eleven six years ago.

Draw factor (six furlongs):
6-5 (5 ran-soft)
2-1 (6 ran-soft) 1-4-11 (10 ran-good) 3-7-2 (8 ran-good) 4-2-1 (10 ran-good to soft) 12-5-2 (11 ran-good) 8-4-1 (12 ran-good) 3-6-9 (9 ran-heavy) 2-7-4 (8 ran-soft) 4-6-7 (8 ran-good to firm) 4-7-6 (9 ran-good) 6-10-1 (8 ran-heavy) 6-2-5 (10 ran-soft) 8-5-2 (8 ran-soft) 8-2 (7 ran-heavy) 8-3-2 (10 ran-good)

2.40 Three-year-olds have won eight of the last 16 renewals and the pick of the junior raiders this time around will hopefully include KNIFE POINT, RUWASI and OASIS FANTASY. Nine of the last 11 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3 which also brings LATENIGHTREQUEST into the mix.

Favourite factor: Two clear favourites have scored alongside a joint market leader via the last 16 renewals of this event. Seven of the 18 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period. Only one favourite has prevailed during the last 10 years, whilst five winners were returned in double figures ranging in odds between 10/1 & 28/1.

3.15 Three and four-year-olds have won eight of the last 10 renewals, with four-year-olds leading 5-3 in the process, albeit any junior raiders would have come to last year’s gig on a four timer had any relevant runners been declared! Nine of the last 10 winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-2 and (having included last year's 16/1 winner -Dungannon- in the mix) putting all the stats and facts together produces a short list of SLEEPY SIOUX (drawn 13/22), PETERKIN (18), VIVA VERGLAS (15) and KICKBOXER (17).

Favourite factor: Six of the last 17 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

Draw factor (five furlongs):
16-3-12-17 (19 ran-soft) (
22-9-8-21 (21 ran-soft) 10-17-9-6 (20 ran-good) 1-15-18-20 (21 ran-good) 16-9-7-21 (20 ran-good to soft) 16-22-8-3 (20 ran-good) 15-7-8-4 (17 ran-good) 3-16-11-6 (21 ran-heavy) 13-6-4 (13 ran-soft) 1-9-7 (14 ran-good to firm) 6-14-8 (13 ran-soft) 1-14-10 (13 ran-heavy) 1-4-13-21 (18 ran-soft) 7-9-13 (14 ran-soft) 8-3-1 (9 ran-heavy) 15-14-6-4 (22 ran-good)

3.50 Aidan O’Brien has saddled five winners of this Group 1 event (including three of the last five) during the last 13 years. Aidan has declared two of the eight runners on this occasion, namely ALOFT and JACOBEAN. I also like the chance SNOANO for John Gosden who still goes from 'trap to line' during the course of the turf season in this green an pleasant land. Elm Park could do nothing more than notch his hat trick last time out in Group 2 company, though I think this is a stiff test for Andrew Balding's Pheonix Ridge raider personally.

Favourite factor: 10 of the last 17 favourites have won this last Group 1 event of the season on these shores, though just two of the other seven market leaders additionally secured a toteplacepot position. Market leaders come to the gig on a six timer on this occasion.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):
8-6-9 (11 ran-soft)
7-1 (7 ran-soft) 6-5 (5 ran-good) 3-8-6 (10 ran-good) 9-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft) 10-3-6 (15 ran-good) 6-9-11 (12 ran-good) 1-7 (7 ran-heavy) 5-7-2 (8 ran-soft) 4 (4 ran-good to firm) 2-8-1 (9 ran-soft) 3-5 (6 ran-heavy) 9-10-5 (10 ran-soft) 8-2-6 (9 ran-soft) 4-1 (6 ran-heavy) 4-7-1 (8 ran-good)

4.25 Six of the last nine winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less, statistics which rule out the top three horses in the handicap if you take the figures seriously though that said, WHEN WILL IT END might still qualify via the trends via Cam hardie's three pound claim. The two horses which make most appeal without having to worry about jockeys 'wasting' on Saturday morning are named as THEM AND US and POPESWOOD..

Favourite factor: Five of the last 13 favourites have prevailed which are good statistics relating to Nursery events. That said, fopur of the last five four winners have scored at 33/1, 25/1, 9/1 and 7/1. 10 of the 13 favourites during the study period finished in the frame.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):
7-10-8 (9 ran-soft)
2-3-12 (10 ran-soft) 13-14-11 (13 ran-good) 7-13-10 (15 ran-good) 4-10-6 (13 ran-good to soft) 8-12-9 (14 ran-good) 8-9-7 (15 ran-good) 1-9-3 (12 ran-heavy) 1-3-12 (14 ran-soft) 6-5-9 (10 ran-good to firm) 3-4-1 (8 ran-soft) 3-2-7 (9 ran-soft)

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Saturday

12--Richard Fahey
4--Mick Channon
4--Charlie Hills
3--Michael Appleby
3--Andrew Balding
3--Marco Botti
3--Karl Burke
3--Tim Easterby
3--David O'Meara
2--Charlie Appleby
2--David Barron
2--Clive Cox
2--Michael Easterby
2--David Elsworth
2--John Gosden
2--Richard Hannon
2--Dean Ivory
2--Mark Johnston
2--William Muir
2--Aidan O'Brien
2--Hugo Palmer
2--John Quinn
1--Alan Bailey
1--Michael Bell
1--Henry Candy
1--Peter Chapple-Hyam
1--Peter Crate
1--Keith Dalgleish
1--Scott Dixon
1--Ed Dunlop
1--Brian Ellison
1--Clifford Lines
1--Peter Makin
1--Brian Meehan
1--Jedd O'Keefe
1--Phil Mcbride
1--Rod Millman
1--Geoff Oldroyd
1--Ted Powell
1--Sir Mark Prescott
1--David Simcock
1--Michael Squance
1--James Tate
1--James Toller
1--Roger Varian
1--Mark Walford

88 declared runners

2014 average toteplacepot returns thus far (1130 meetings):
Favourites failing to reach the frame in all six races: £18,825.73 (4)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,053.80 (30)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,019.70 (131)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £508.37 (310)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £194.02 (354)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £73.77 (253)
All 6 Placepot races with at least one favourite in the frame: £15.67 (108)

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2014:
Cheltenham--£44,616.30--Friday March 14
Pontefract--£26,272.90--Tuesday April 8
Sandown--£20,601.40--Saturday July 5
Redcar--£9,925.20--Tuesday September 9
Warwick (NH)--£6,946.60--Sunday March 9
Ripon--£6,876.30--Saturday August 16
Doncaster (flat)--£6,810.90--Saturday August 16
Redcar--£5,730.00--Wednesday July 30
Bath--£5,358.00--Sunday October 19
Wolverhampton--£5,122.30--Friday April 11
Southwell (NH)--£4,820.20--Thursday January 22
Chester--£4,495.50--Saturday September 13
Hamilton--£4,433.40--Friday August 22
Brighton--£4,086.10--Tuesday October 7
Wolverhampton--£3,703.10--Friday October 17
Doncaster (flat)--£3,701.90--Friday April 25
Lingfield (Mix Turf/AW)--£3,620.50--Saturday June 28
Newmarket (Rowley Mile)--£3,201.20--Saturday October 11
Wetherby--£3,148.90--Thursday May 29
York--£3,065.20--Friday August 22
Bath--£3,032.20--Friday August 1
York--£2,892.80--Saturday June 14
Wincanton--£2,871.50--Thursday May 8
Yarmouth--£2,868.90--Monday April 21
Newmarket--£2,867.90--Thursday July 11
Fontwell--£2,743.60--Tuesday June 10
Salisbury--£2,701.70--Wednesday October 1
Stratford--£2,571.90--Saturday March 22
Uttoxeter--£2,507.80--Thursday June 12
Newmarket (July)--£2,433.40--Saturday August 2
Cheltenham--£2,414.40--Thursday April 17
Windsor--£2,390.20--Monday August 4
Fontwell--£2,374.70--Friday May 2
Lingfield (A/W)--£2,320.10--Saturday March 22
Yarmouth--£2,176.60--Sunday August 24
Hamilton--£2,172.70--Monday September 29
Stratford--£2,142.70--Tuesday July 1
Catterick (NH)--£2,105.50--Wednesday January 1
Bath--£2,090.60--Wednesday June 25
Kempton (A/W)--£2,044.20--Thursday October 23
Brighton--£2,008.10--Thursday August 7
Doncaster (Flat)--£2,002.40--Sunday March 30

Flat Turf venues:
Total Flat Turf meetings (£489.68--542 meetings)
Ascot (£258.13--18 meetings)
Ayr (£381.11--17 meetings)
Bath (£684.39--20 meetings)
Beverley (£480.05--18 meetings)
Brighton (£420.29--21 meetings)
Carlisle (£444.66--13 meetings)
Catterick (£162.63--16 meetings)
Chepstow (£123.17--13 meetings)
Chester (£494.12--15 meetings)
Doncaster (£799.34--21 meetings)
Epsom (£124.13--11 meetings)
Ffos Las (£749.04--6 meetings)
Goodwood (£173.37--19 meetings)
Hamilton (£535.59--18 meetings)
Haydock (£290.92--23 meetings)
Leicester (£122.58--20 meetings)
Lingfield (£877.00--1 meeting)
Musselburgh (£348.31--17 meetings)
Newbury (£200.25--15 meetings)
Newcastle (£156.80--17 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile) (£449.36--15 meetings)
Newmarket (July) (£539.74--22 meetings)
Nottingham (£299.50--20 meetings)
Pontefract (£2,048.55--15 meetings)
Redcar (£1,361.64--16 meetings)
Ripon (£543.89--16 meetings)
Salisbury (£410.92--15 meetings)
Sandown (£1,560.04--16 meetings)
Thirsk (£269.33--15 meetings)
Warwick (£58.70--6 meetings--only two races contested at the May 20 meeting)
Windsor (£241.73--26 meetings)
Yarmouth (£435.90--23 meetings)
York (£867.35--16 meetings)

Mixed Turf and All-weather venues:
Lingfield (£290.98--15 meetings)

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£217.04--243 meetings)
Kempton (£133.52--66 meetings)
Kempton NH Bumper (£134.05--2 meetings)
Lingfield (£169.45--62 meetings)
Lingfield NH Bumper (£27.70--1 meeting)
Southwell (£142.79--39 meetings)
Southwell NH Bumper (£17.00--1 meeting)
Wolverhampton (£273.62--71 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£421.85--398 meetings)
Aintree (£565.72--5 meetings)
Ascot (£144.23--3 meetings)
Ayr (£360.01--8 meetings)
Bangor (£284.31--9 meetings)
Carlisle (£432.94--8 meetings)
Cartmel (£126.89--7 meetings)
Catterick (£375.36--7 meetings)
Cheltenham (£4,566.48--11 meetings)
Chepstow (£165.80--9 meetings)
Doncaster (£290.41--7 meetings)
Exeter (£283.94--9 meetings)
Fakenham (£160.26--7 meetings)
Ffos Las (£350.94--12 meetings)
Fontwell (£428.69--15 meetings)
Haydock (£817.85--4 meetings)
Hexham (£279.03--11 meetings)
Huntingdon (£144.76--12 meetings)
Kelso (£305.54--10 meetings)
Kempton (£130.97--7 meetings)
Leicester (£382.19--5 meetings)
Ludlow (£103.02--10 meetings)
Market Rasen (£95.60--16 meetings)
Musselburgh (£372.37--6 meetings)
Newbury (£209.60--6 meetings)
Newcastle (£454.85--6 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£203.77--18 meetings)
Perth (£262.16--16 meetings)
Plumpton (£266.93--9 meetings)
Sandown (£205.02--4 meetings)
Southwell (£560.80--16 meetings)
Sedgefield (£191.32--15 meetings)
Stratford (£384.92--15 meetings)
Taunton (£144.18--9 meetings)
Towcester (£103.16--11 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£285.81--16 meetings)
Warwick (£1,107.42--7 meetings)
Wetherby (£355.24--11 meetings)
Wincanton (£405.46--11 meetings)
Worcester (£180.51--20 meetings)

Mixed Flat and NH venues:
Ffos Las (£168.90--1 meeting)
Haydock (£311.40--1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2014 stands at £412.70 (1190 meetings) up to and including Thursday October 23