Value Bet: Jump for Joy
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on QIPCO 1000 Guineas day at Newmarket.
- Related Content
James Doyle had to settle for second in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas aboard Kingman on Saturday, but he can quickly put that disappointment behind him by landing the fillies' Classic aboard JOYEUSE on Sunday.
Lady Cecil's half-sister to Frankel may have been beaten in her trial, the Dubai Duty Free Stakes at Newbury, but that didn't stop Sky Lantern last year or Night Of Thunder on Saturday and there were plenty of positives to take from Joyeuse's run.
Having been too keen to land a blow in the Cheveley Park Stakes last campaign (still only beaten three-and-a-half lengths), Joyeuse responded well to the hood being reapplied on her seasonal reappearance.
She settled much better under Doyle at Newbury and moved into contention nicely once switched inside and coming from off the pace. Staying on all the way to the line without being given too much of a hard time, she was only a length-and-a-quarter away from J Wonder and Al Thakhira at the winning post - hinting that she will thrive over another furlong.
That is up in the air as you would perhaps come to the conclusion that she'll be a sprinter looking at her pedigree, but I liked how much more relaxed she was in the hood and with that particular headgear retained there is hope that she will be able to put her best foot forward in the 1000 Guineas.
She was beaten a neck by Sandiva when third in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last year, but Richard Fahey's filly had already had two runs that day and Joyeuse did remarkably well to finish where she did on the back of a sole win in a Lingfield maiden.
In a wide open 1000 Guineas, Joyeuse looks a value play at around a general 20/1.
Dangers are everywhere and we could well have a similar scenario to the 2000 Guineas in which only five lengths separated the first 11 home.
The Moyglare Stud Stakes could well hold the key and Tapestry was the filly to take from that race, her unlucky third-place reversed in the stewards' room where she was placed second. I'd wager that she will beat Rizeena on Sunday, but 8/1 is skinny enough really and I'm happy to rely on a small bet on Joyeuse.
Earlier on YEEOOW looks worth a bet in the Havana Gold At Tweenhills Handicap at 14/1.
Karl Burke's stable are absolutely flying and everything seems to have come right for this useful handicapper.
The five-year-old needs fast ground, a strong pace and a stiff six furlongs to show his best - conditions that saw him win an Ascot handicap this time last year despite not having a clear run.
That was off a handicap mark of 90 - the same rating he races off on Sunday - with useful claimer Joey Haynes taking off a further 5lb.
A good third in a decent Pontefract handicap last time, that race is working out well as the winner Fast Shot has gone in again, while seventh home Louis The Pious was subsequently second in a good handicap at Haydock.
This is a competitive race, of course, but a strong pace looks assured and with everything in the selection's favour he rates a decent bet at 14s.
1pt e.w Joyeuse in 3.50 Newmarket at 20/1
1pt win Yeeoow in 3.10 Newmarket at 14/1
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +216.81pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).