Trade a bet at Sandown
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value from Saturday's feature action at Sandown and Beverley.
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John Gosden's Kingman is the key horse on Saturday with the Solario Stakes seemingly at the QIPCO 2,000 Guineas favourite's mercy.
It's going to take some performance for him to shorten any more in that particular ante-post book and at around 2/5 this weekend he's only going to appeal to the very biggest of hitters.
I take it that's not you if you're reading this and thankfully for value hunters there are plenty of big-field races to get stuck into away from the four-runner feature.
The race that I'm keen to get involved with at Sandown is the Betfred TV & Levy Board Handicap at 15.50 with 16 runners - at the time of writing - going to post.
As we're just one non-runner away from reduced place terms I'm keen to split stakes on two win selections and the first of those is Gosden's TRADE COMMISSIONER at 11/1.
This horse is two from two at Sandown and is unexposed at the trip having only run over ten furlongs twice in his career including last time at Newmarket.
That day he was forced to make the running and ended up being a sitting duck for the talented Kassiano - runner-up in a Group One at Meydan last spring.
Trade Commissioner will be seen to much better effect sitting off a good gallop and I'm keen to get with him before he proves himself at the distance, especially now he's back at Sandown.
He stuck to his task well over a mile-and-a-quarter last time and I'm of no doubt he'll stay, while his Royal Hunt Cup form couldn't be working out much better when you look at the exploits of those that finished in front of him.
The other one I like in the race is BEAUFORT TWELVE at 20/1 for William Jarvis.
Two starts ago at Pontefract he hinted that he might be dropping to an attractive handicap mark when a close third off 87 over a mile-and-a-half.
He disappointed three days later at Ascot in the Shergar Cup but it may have come too soon for him and it's too early to write him off, especially now he's dropped in distance by a quarter of a mile and tried in a first-time visor.
All of his best form is over ten - he was a good third at Newmarket at the distance in June - and off 86 with the talented Michael Murphy taking off a further 5lb, he looks overpriced.
Over in East Yorkshire the Beverley Bullet looks as competitive as ever but CALEDONIA LADY could be the one to be on at double-figure prices.
She's at her best over a stiff five as she showed when winning the Group 3 Coral Charge at Sandown last July, while she was unlucky not to finish much closer than she did when hampered in the Nunthorpe.
While a wide draw isn't ideal in a race of this nature at Beverley, the positives are she should stay out of trouble and get a clear run.
If that's the case she should go close and prices around 12/1 should be snapped up.
1pt win Caledonia Lady in 2.30 Beverley at 12/1
1pt win Trade Commissioner in 3.50 Sandown at 11/1
1pt win Beaufort Twelve in 3.50 Sandown at 20/1
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +252.56pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +120.25pts to recommended stakes in 2013.