Logic says side with O'Meara
Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on day two of the York Ebor Meeting and he focuses on the Clipper Logistics Handicap.
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David O'Meara has a quarter of the field in the 20-runner Clipper Logistics Handicap at York on Thursday and two of them in particular look worth having on side.
The first is FROG HOLLOW who has thrived this season for O'Meara after switching yards from Ralph Beckett's via Milton Bradley.
He's gone up 10lbs to 90 since O'Meara got his hands on him but he still looks to be progressing for his new handler judging by his last run off a similar mark at Musselburgh.
Held up by Danny Tudhope, he couldn't get to the winner Alejandro over an inadequate seven furlongs but it was a good run with the return to a mile in mind.
Just two starts ago he won over Thursday's course and distance by three lengths, and, though that form isn't up to much, Frog Hollow could only beat them as easily as he did and at 12/1 I want to be with him while he's thriving.
You wouldn't describe stablemate ANDERIEGO as thriving, but at 25/1 I can't resist chancing him given his record at York.
He's won two course and distance handicaps off lower marks and back in May he was a two-lengths third to Navajo Chief off a 2lb-higher mark.
He gets a significant pull at the weights with that rival and Prince Of Johannes, who both finished in front of him that day, but he remains a bigger price than the duo.
Beaten six lengths in this race last year off an identical mark when sent off at 5/1, there is enough good form at this course in the bank to suggest a price five times larger than that is too big.
Of course, we have to forgive him a couple of poor runs, but at least the handicapper has relented and dropped him a couple of pounds and, back at York, that could be enough to relight the fire.
Wentworth is the 11/2 favourite and it is tough to take him on given his overall progression and performance at this meeting last year.
However, a 7lb-rise looks enough given his racing style means he'll need the breaks and at the odds the percentage call is to take him on.
Frog Hollow at 12/1 and Anderiego at 25/1 in the 15.05
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet Aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +262.56pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). The column is +130.25pts to recommended stakes in 2013.