Glorious Goodwood 2000
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GLORIOUS GOODWOOD STOPWATCH

STOPWATCH RATINGS EXPLAINED

By Dave Edwards, Sporting Life

You should only worry about time when you are in jail is one witty but blinkered view of race-times but it is my firm belief that time is precious and every second counts.

Clockwatching is a complex business and it is the ability to correctly interpret the merit of race-times which is vital in the constant battle to beat the book.

A timecheck serves a dual purpose. Just as a fast time can pinpoint future winners so too can a slow time set alarm bells ringing and steer punters away from supporting prospective losers.

A horse may win smoothly and be showered with praise but if the time is slow tread cautiously.

This apparent `time-lag' can be used to the discerning punter's advantage for smart form on paper is seriously undermined by a slow time.

For instance so-called Classic Trials are often moderately run affairs and raise more questions than they answer and it will be interesting to see if the form from this year's trials manages to stand the test of time.

On the other hand even record times can be misleading particularly if wind assisted or achieved over an infrequently used distance.

The unenlightened automatically presume that just because a horse beats the clock it is a world-beater but course records often tell more about climatic conditions rather than the ability of the horse.

Additionally Clerks Of Courses have a major say as course records are most unlikely if running rails on bends are moved out thereby adding to race distances.

However naïve hacks have been known to seize this snippet of information, feed it to their readers without explaining its true relevance.

They merely infer that the record-breaker could be the goose about to lay the golden egg.

In reality it is often a time-warp and the goose ends up well and truly cooked.

Each time has to be considered on its merits both individually and collectively and then put in perspective.

The art of good time-keeping lies in separating the wheat from the chaff.

Clearly it is not simply a case of looking at the time of a race and drawing conclusions.

Knowledgeable students of the clock have various problems to combat before the jigsaw is complete.

Wind and rain have significant impact on race-times as too does course configuration and weights carried.

For race-times to become meaningful, solid foundations have to be laid. Without them the building blocks will tumble and pockets soon empty.

How can we compare times from tracks of varying conformation? For instance under ideal conditions a decent sprint handicapper can cover Epsom's downhill five furlongs in around 55 seconds yet all thing being equal the same horse will take about a minute to cover the same trip at Ascot.

That five-second difference equates to about 100 yards. Obviously simply comparing actual race-times from various tracks is a non-starter.

To coin a phrase "We need different strokes for different folks".

To overcome this problem we use a set of Adjusted Average Times, which are revised annually and embrace previous fast times over a course and distance, are honed to compensate for the state of the going and weight carried and then adjusted to 9 stone (12 stone N.H.).

Times on extremes of going are ignored so as not to inflate this vital yardstick.

Once we have a reliable benchmark for each trip and track it is necessary to compare the times recorded at a meeting against these Adjusted Averages.

Next the dramatic effects of the going and elements have to countered. Wind and rain have a tremendous influence on race-times.

Fast times (below Average) are most unlikely on soft ground or when horses are running headlong into a wind.

To offset the impact of the elements a going correction is used. In effect it is a leveller or equaliser.

There is NO common denominator governing this allowance.

It cannot be pre-determined and can only be arrived at after examining a days racing and comparing the actual times recorded to Adjusted Average for the course and distance in question.

Even then other relevant factors such as previous performances and class of meeting have to be scrutinised and all the races on a card evaluated.

To convert times and distances beaten into a tangible speed rating a scale of weights and measures are adhered to and ratings are amended to 9 stone.

One pound equals one point at all distances but lengths and parts thereof are worth varying amounts at varying trips and a second also varies in value at differing distances.

Ratings are based on a figure of 100 and simplified, a horse clocking average time, carrying 9stone and a nil sec per furlong going correction would have attained a rating of 100.

Once a horse attains a worthwhile rating it enters the master list and retains its best figure throughout the season.

To find the horse `best in' in future engagements deduct one point per pound for every pound to carry above 9 stone (N.H. 12 stone) and Add 1 point per pound for every 1lb less than nine stone upto a maximum of 15.

It is the task of the BHB handicapper to bring horses of different calibre closer together but often the importance of weight is over-stated.

There is no doubt that every pound at the top of the handicap counts for considerably more than for horses at the other end of the scale.

Excess weight can prevent smart horses producing that vital turn of foot at the end of a truly run race but taking weight off inferior animals who do not have a turn of foot in the first place does not automatically mean they will go faster.

To try and combat this bias a maximum of 15 points is added to the base Stopwatch rating even if a horse carries less than 7st 13lb.

Followers need not blindly follow the top-rated. The discerning punter may also wish to take other pointers into account before making a final choice.

All things considered it may make more sense and profit to follow the second and/or third rated in a race.

These considerations include the going, distance, track, jockey etc.

Fast recent form is without doubt more reliable and horse which are `double-top' i.e. top overall and on most recent running deserve special consideration particularly towards the end of a long hard season.

Be prudent and place more reliance on relatively high stopwatch ratings .

Those at the bottom Of the scale tend, by their very nature, to be less reliable although they still pinpoint big priced winners.

Most horses can lob along at one pace but not all have the ability to find an extra gear when necessary.

A good speed rating suggests a horse has that essential hallmark.

Ignoring the findings of the clock can seriously damage your wealth.



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