STOPWATCH RATINGS EXPLAINED
By Dave Edwards, Sporting Life
You should only worry about time when you are in jail
is one witty but blinkered view of race-times but it is my
firm belief that time is precious and every second
counts.
Clockwatching is a complex business and it is the
ability to correctly interpret the merit of race-times
which is vital in the constant battle to beat the book.
A timecheck serves a dual purpose. Just as a fast time
can pinpoint future winners so too can a slow time set
alarm bells ringing and steer punters away from
supporting prospective losers.
A horse may win smoothly and be showered with
praise but if the time is slow tread cautiously.
This
apparent `time-lag' can be used to the discerning
punter's advantage for smart form on paper is seriously
undermined by a slow time.
For instance so-called Classic Trials are often
moderately run affairs and raise more questions than
they answer and it will be interesting to see if the form
from this year's trials manages to stand the test of
time.
On the other hand even record times can be misleading
particularly if wind assisted or achieved over an
infrequently used distance.
The unenlightened
automatically presume that just because a horse beats
the clock it is a world-beater but course records often
tell more about climatic conditions rather than the
ability of the horse.
Additionally Clerks Of Courses have a major say as
course records are most unlikely if running rails on
bends are moved out thereby adding to race distances.
However naïve hacks have been known to seize this
snippet of information, feed it to their readers without
explaining its true relevance.
They merely infer that the
record-breaker could be the goose about to lay the
golden egg.
In reality it is often a time-warp and the goose ends up
well and truly cooked.
Each time has to be considered on its merits both
individually and collectively and then put in perspective.
The art of good time-keeping lies in separating the
wheat from the chaff.
Clearly it is not simply a case of looking at the time of
a race and drawing conclusions.
Knowledgeable students of the clock have various
problems to combat before the jigsaw is complete.
Wind and rain have significant impact on race-times as
too does course configuration and weights carried.
For race-times to become meaningful, solid foundations
have to be laid. Without them the building blocks will
tumble and pockets soon empty.
How can we compare times from tracks of varying
conformation? For instance under ideal conditions a
decent sprint handicapper can cover Epsom's downhill
five furlongs in around 55 seconds yet all thing being
equal the same horse will take about a minute to cover
the same trip at Ascot.
That five-second difference equates to about 100 yards.
Obviously simply comparing actual race-times from
various tracks is a non-starter.
To coin a phrase "We
need different strokes for different folks".
To overcome this problem we use a set of Adjusted
Average Times, which are revised annually and
embrace previous fast times over a course and
distance, are honed to compensate for the state of the
going and weight carried and then adjusted to 9 stone
(12 stone N.H.).
Times on extremes of going are
ignored so as not to inflate this vital yardstick.
Once we have a reliable benchmark for each trip and
track it is necessary to compare the times recorded at
a meeting against these Adjusted Averages.
Next the dramatic effects of the going and elements
have to countered. Wind and rain have a tremendous
influence on race-times.
Fast times (below Average) are most unlikely on soft
ground or when horses are running headlong into a
wind.
To offset the impact of the elements a going correction
is used. In effect it is a leveller or equaliser.
There is
NO common denominator governing this allowance.
It cannot be pre-determined and can only be arrived at
after examining a days racing and comparing the actual
times recorded to Adjusted Average for the course and
distance in question.
Even then other relevant factors such as previous
performances and class of meeting have to be
scrutinised and all the races on a card evaluated.
To convert times and distances beaten into a tangible
speed rating a scale of weights and measures are
adhered to and ratings are amended to 9 stone.
One pound equals one point at all distances but
lengths and parts thereof are worth varying amounts at
varying trips and a second also varies in value at
differing distances.
Ratings are based on a figure of 100 and simplified, a
horse clocking average time, carrying 9stone and a nil
sec per furlong going correction would have attained a
rating of 100.
Once a horse attains a worthwhile rating it enters the
master list and retains its best figure throughout the
season.
To find the horse `best in' in future engagements deduct
one point per pound for every pound to carry above 9
stone (N.H. 12 stone) and Add 1 point per pound for
every 1lb less than nine stone upto a maximum of 15.
It is the task of the BHB handicapper to bring horses of
different calibre closer together but often the importance
of weight is over-stated.
There is no doubt that every pound at the top of the
handicap counts for considerably more than for horses
at the other end of the scale.
Excess weight can prevent smart horses producing that
vital turn of foot at the end of a truly run race but taking
weight off inferior animals who do not have a turn of foot
in the first place does not automatically mean they will
go faster.
To try and combat this bias a maximum of 15 points is
added to the base Stopwatch rating even if a horse
carries less than 7st 13lb.
Followers need not blindly follow the top-rated. The
discerning punter may also wish to take other pointers
into account before making a final choice.
All things
considered it may make more sense and profit to follow
the second and/or third rated in a race.
These considerations include the going, distance,
track, jockey etc.
Fast recent form is without doubt
more reliable and horse which are `double-top' i.e. top
overall and on most recent running deserve special
consideration particularly towards the end of a long
hard season.
Be prudent and place more reliance on relatively high
stopwatch ratings .
Those at the bottom Of the scale
tend, by their very nature, to be less reliable although
they still pinpoint big priced winners.
Most horses can lob along at one pace but not all have
the ability to find an extra gear when necessary.
A
good speed rating suggests a horse has that essential
hallmark.
Ignoring the findings of the clock can
seriously damage your wealth.