Betting Box Tipping Guide
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BETTING BOX
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FIXED ODDS
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4pts Refuse To Bend at best morning price. |
Very solid claims on Classic form and looks pick of the Irish team. |
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0.5pts e.w. Graikos at best morning price. |
Denied a clear run in the Dante and can sneak a place at a big price. |
Ireland seems to hold all the aces in the 2003 Vodafone Derby and
Refuse To Bend is taken to complete leg two of the triple
crown.
Dermot Weld pondered long and hard over whether to run his unbeaten
colt in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket but his decision to go there was
rewarded with a hard-fought victory.
It was a seemingly below-par renewal
of the colts' Classic but still represents the best form on offer here – and
crucially everything about the selection suggests he is going to thrive at
middle-distances.
He is a Sadler's Wells half-brother to Media Puzzle so
any rain will not hinder his chances and he handled the dip at Newmarket
well.
He also has a change of gear and as a dual Group One winner it is
something of a surprise that he is not favourite going into the race.
That
honour goes to Brian Boru who has been the subject of sustained support
since his return to action in the Derrinstown Stud Trial.
He is entitled
to come on for the run – but his sole top flight success to date was over
stablemate Powerscourt in the Racing Post Trophy last autumn.
He has much
the same chance on the book as Alamshar – who was just over two-and-a-half
lengths in front of the Ballydoyle number one at Leopardstown last time, in
receipt of five pounds.
Last season John Oxx's charge beat Brian Boru by a
head in the Beresford Stakes and there will be little between the pair
again.
If he ground rides fast, Alamshar could still have the edge, he had
been held up in his work before earning mixed reviews in the Derrinstown
Stud race, but any rain plays into the hands of Brian Boru.
Both are
clearly leading contenders.
So too is Alberto Giacometti, much the same
horse as Brian Boru at home on the clock.
The hype died down over this one
when he was only third to Balestrini (another O'Brien runner here) in the
Ballysax Stakes and fully five lengths adrift of Alamshar.
However a third
in the Prix Lupin last time, behind French Derby one-two Dalakhani and Super
Celebre reads very well.
He just under two lengths behind the winner that
day and while it was a muddling race, the son of Sadler's Wells cannot be
written off.
The Great Gatsby completes team O'Brien and was only beaten a
head by Alamshar in the pivotal Derrinstown Stud Trial.
However he had
previously proved inferior to Brian Boru in the Racing Post Trophy and a
racecourse workout and may have been flattered.
The trials in England have
thrown out mixed messages.
The Dante at York usually has a bearing on the
market at least but Magistretti's battling victory hardly caused a
flutter.
The form has been devalued since by the Newmarket eclipse of
runner-up Tuning Fork but Neville Callaghan's charge deserves to take his
place in the line-up.
There seems no reason why Dunhill Star, third at the
Knavesmire, should take his revenge but Graikos met with trouble in running
back in fifth and I was very taken by how he came home.
He had been
working lazily at home before the run and it would be no surprise if he was
to run well here – and possibly sneak a place at a big price.
Franklins
Gardens is another who is sure to run his race and at least he is proven
over the track with his course and distance defeat of Gala Sunday on his
reappearance.
However the second and third have done little for the form
since and Mark Tompkins' charge is best judged on his half-length defeat of
Let Me Try Again (opposes again) at Lingfield.
The two pulled well clear
down the straight that day although with favourite Rainwashed Gold not
running his race, it is hard to assess the form.
Franklins Gardens has an
admirable attitude to the game and should again have the edge over Terry
Mills' charge but the St Leger may be his Classic.
Shield was a brave
winner of the Sandown Classic trial but that didn't look much of a race,
indeed a line through runner-up Inch Again suggests he will struggle to cope
with Predominate second Unigold, let alone the big guns in the field.
The
two most significant trials probably came at Chester.
Dutch Gold
represents the bang in-form Clive Brittain yard and he was very impressive
in slamming Summerland (again runs here) in the Vase.
The runner-up, six
lengths adrift at the Rooeye, had run Alberto Giacometti to a short-head at
two so that puts his Chester conqueror firmly into the shake-up, if the form
can be trusted.
However for me the biggest threat to Refuse To Bend comes
from Kris Kin.
It is significant that connections have decided to
supplement the colt, who is unspectacular at home, for this race and he
showed a tremendous change of gear to floor hotpot Big Bad Bob in the Dee
Stakes.
He was in need of the experience that day, and shocked the Stoute
team with the manner of his victory, but the turn of foot was impressive and
will be a potent weapon in any contest.
He will run well but for me the
Classic form gives Refuse To Bend the edge in a fascinating renewal,
Graikos the pick of those at longer prices.
Preview posted at 1345BST on 04/06/2003.
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