Betting Box Tipping Guide
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BETTING BOX
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FIXED ODDS
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6pts win Alamshar at best morning price. |
Scores heavily in almost every department and looks the most solid of the leading contenders to run his race. |
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2pts each-way Kris Kin at best morning price. |
Dee Stakes representatives often run better than their odds imply at Epsom and he is fast-improving individual for the hottest trainer-jockey combination in town. |
There are a number of ways we can interpret big-race patterns to formulate a selection for the Vodafone Derby but, for the purposes of this exercise, we will run through the major six trends, principally over the last ten years but further back when appropriate. A simple scoring system has been devised which will hopefully reveal this year's winner. Points are allocated for when horses score strongly in specific areas but, in extreme case, points will also be deducted if attempting to defy a long-standing negative pattern.
MOST RECENT FORM:
As argued in the Oaks analysis, winning form last time out entering a domestic classic is of vital importance and no more so than the Derby. Before Friday's Oaks, ten of the last eleven classics were won by horses that had won on their previous outing and we have to go back to Dr Devious in 1992 (unplaced in the Kentucky Derby) to find a winner that was beaten on its latest racecourse appearance. In fact, 18 of the last 22 Derbys were won by such horses. That's a strong statistic for the likes of Brian Boru and Alberto Giacometti, of the leading fancies, to overcome.
Moreover, only Commander In Chief in 1993 had run more than twice earlier in the campaign in the last 17 renewals (going back to Slip Anchor) and he was unraced at two so it was no surprise connections wanted to get a third run into him. Interestingly, both Derby winners to run more than twice earlier in the season were trained by Henry Cecil.
Points rating: Award 5 points to all last-time-out winners. Deduct 2 points from runners having their fourth start or more of the campaign.
Scorers: 5pts Alamshar, Franklins Gardens, Kris Kin, Magistretti, Prince Nureyev, Refuse To Bend, Shield; 3pts Dutch Gold; -2pts Dunhill Star, Let Me Try Again, Lundy's Lane, Strength `N Honour
KEY TRIALS:
The last three winners have all taken the same route to Epsom having run in both the Ballysax Stakes and Leopardstown Derby Trial which is a big plus for Alamshar. The same stable's Sinndar had a virtually identical campaign finishing second in the former before winning the latter trial. Best of the British trials in the Dante Stakes which has been responsible for four winners since 1986 and Magistretti will bid to enhance that excellent return this time around. However, no horse beaten in York's valuable trial has ever won the Derby which is bad news for Dunhill Star and Graikos.
Next best is the Lingfield Derby Trial won by Franklins Gardens that has also been the springboard to Epsom success for Slip Anchor, Kahyasi and High-Rise whilst Silver Patriarch was only beaten a short-head. Kris Kin represents the Dee Stakes and runners from that trial have run above themselves at Epsom of late. Oath won both races in 1999 and a couple of rags have finished fourth at 66/1.
Trials with a far less conspicuous bearing are the Predominate Stakes (not responsible for Derby winner since Troy in 1979), the Chester Vase (all 11 winners since Shergar have been beaten) and the 2000 Guineas (Generous was the last Derby winner to contest the Newmarket classic 12 years ago).
Points rating: Award 5pts to colts that contested the Leopardstown Derby Trial, 3pts to the Dante Stakes and Lingfield Park Trial winner and 1pt to those that took part in the Dee Stakes. Deduct 2pts from horses that contested the Predominate Stakes, Chester Vase, 2000 Guineas and those beaten in the Dante Stakes.
Scorers: 5pts Alamshar, Brian Boru, The Great Gatsby; 3pts Frankins Gardens, Magistretti; 1pt Kris Kin; -2pts Dunhill Star, Dutch Gold, Graikos, Lundy's Lane, Norse Dancer, Refuse To Bend, Summerland
BETTING MARKET:
Only one winner in the last quarter of a century has scored at a bigger price than 14/1 (High-Rise 20/1) so only consider the front half-dozen in the market. Big-priced outsiders often run into the frame and should not be dismissed for Place Only betting purposes. As 15 of the last 17 winners started at 12/1 or less, this is where we should be placing our faith.
Points rating: Award 5pts to those likely to start at 12/1 or shorter come post time.
Scorers: 5pts Alamshar, Alberto Giacometti, Brian Boru, Kris Kin, Refuse To Bend
TRAINER FORM:
Aidan O'Brien (Galileo & High Chaparral), Sir Michael Stoute (Shergar & Shahrastani), John Dunlop (Shirley Heights & Erhaab), Saeed Bin Suroor (Lammtarra), John Gosden (Benny The Dip) and John Oxx (Sinndar), represent stables with a previous success in the race. With four second placings, Barry Hills has come closest of the big-name trainers without a victory.
Points Rating: Award 5 points to colts whose trainer has won the Derby before and 2 points to stables that have saddled a placed runner.
Scorers: 5pts Alamshar, Alberto Giacometti, Balestrini, Brian Boru, Graikos, Kris Kin, Summerland, The Great Gatsby; 2pts Dunhill Star, Dutch Gold, Lundy's Lane, Norse Dancer
STRIKE RATE:
As with all classics, being on a proven winner is of vital importance and by that I don't just mean horses that won at the most recent time of asking. It makes perfect sense to back horses used to the winning habit and eight of the last ten Epsom heroes entered the race with at least a 50% winning strike rate.
Points rating: Award 5 points to the ten horses with at least a 50% winning strike rate.
Scorers: 5pts Alamshar, Alberto Giacometti, Brian Boru, Dunhill Star, Franklins Gardens,Graikos, Kris Kin, Magistretti, Refuse To Bend, Shield
STAMINA:
Many horses fail in the Derby year after year through lack of stamina. The list of horses placed in a Guineas of one description or another failing to get home here is endless and history tell us unless our selection is bred to stay, then it find this stiff mile and a half all too much. Nine of the last ten winners were produce of stallions with a Stamina Index of nine furlongs (Oath being the exception) and horses by sires that have tested and proven over a number of years not adhering to this, are unlikely to see out the full distance.
Of the leading contenders, Alamshar is by a stallion with only one crop of three-year-olds to his name in Key Of Luck. With two thirds of his runners being two-year-olds so far (over shorter distances) it is no surprise his stamina index figure is low at present and needs more time to give an accurate reflection of the likely stamina requirements of his progeny.
Points rating: Award 3pts to virtually certain stayers i.e. already won over the trip or by a sire with a Stamina Index of over 11 furlongs. Deduct 2 points from contenders whose long-standing sire does not have a Stamina Index of over nine furlongs.
Scorers: 3pts Alberto Giacometti, Brian Boru, Dutch Gold, Franklins Gardens, Graikos, Let Me Try Again, Lundy's Lane, Refuse To Bend, Strength `N Honour, The Great Gatsby; -2pts Balestrini, Dunhill Star, Summerland
CONCLUSION:
The Irish can win their fourth Derby on the spin courtesy of ALAMSHAR (25pts), who has rock solid claims on the trends. Prepared identically to the same stable's 2000 Derby hero Sinndar, he can give the Aga Khan a second Derby in a week following the victroy of Dalakhani in the French equivalent. Like the last three winners, Alamshar won the Leopardstown Derby Trial on his final outing (despite a setback earlier in the week) and can confirm placings with Brian Boru (23pts) whom he had back in third on that occasion. Kris Kin (21pts) can run into the frame and prove best of a weak-looking home contingent.
Paul Jones is author of the Summer Festivals Betting Guide published by Weatherbys.
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