Betting Box Tipping Guide

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	4pts Refuse To Bend at best Saturday morning price.	Very solid claims on Classic form and looks pick of the Irish team.

Irish trainers mount one their biggest and most powerful Derby challenges in the long history of the race and it's quite conceivable that they will be responsible for all the first four places.

Alamshar, Brian Boru and Refuse To Bend have all been at the head of the market at various stages but it is the latter who I believe will win. He is a lazy colt whose uninspiring home work has left punters wary but this is often the sign of a really good colt and he is unbeaten in four starts.

Despite being a son of Sadler's Wells, he showed his ability to act on fast ground when winning the National Stakes at The Curragh last September.

Dermot Weld always considered him more of a Derby horse than a 2,000 Guineas one yet the colt had the pace to win the Newmarket classic. Although his dam was a sprinter there is plenty of stamina on her side of the family and she has already bred the two mile Melbourne Cup winner Media Puzzle.

It's possible to pick holes in the Newmarket form - some critics believe that he did not win with sufficient authority - but he is the sort who will never win by much more than he has to.

Alamshar is probably the danger, particularly if the ground is in any way on top. He showed a fine turn of foot in defeat in the Ballysax Stakes and he had the guts to win the Derrinstown Derby Trial despite being held up for several days beforehand by a foot infection and a pulled back muscle. The last three Derby winners all won the Derrinstown on their previous start.

Johnny Murtagh's mount has been given some searching work in the last fortnight - three times up the stiff Walshe's Hill gallop - and he has taken it all in his stride. He has twice beaten Brian Boru, he is a handy sort who will have no problems with the course and he is sure to run a cracker.

Brian Boru is probably Aidan O'Brien's main hope of becoming the first trainer to win the race three years in succession. He was conceding 5lb all round when beaten just over two and a half lengths into the third in the Derrinstown and he has thrived since. However he had the benefit of a preliminary - a private race put on by O'Brien after racing on the day of the Ballysax - and there seems no logical reason why he should reverse the placings with Alamshar.

The Great Gatsby has prospects of making the frame. He was ridden by an apprentice who was unable to claim his 3lb allowance when beaten a head by Alamshar in the Derrinstown and a strict line of form would suggest that he is the best of the horses who ran in that race.

Alberto Giacometti failed to justify his sustained market support when disappointing in the Ballysax. He has since run a lot better behind Dalakhani and Super Celebre in the Prix Lupin but he has yet to put up anything like a Derby-winning performance on the racecourse.

Balestrini stole the Ballysax thanks to an enterprising ride but he won't be able to do that this time and he looks a long shot.

Refuse To Bend is the one that has all the right credentials and Alamshar can chase him home.