The build up to the Festival gathers momentum after Christmas and bookmakers have been known to cut their prices faster than a High Street store holding a fire sale so it was no great surprise to see Pasco's Irish Independent Arkle odds halve with some firms following his win in the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2009 Novices' Chase at Huntingdon on Thursday.
Paul Nicholls' grey is a big horse who was always likely to need time and fences to come into his own and it may well be the case that we won't see the best of him until next season.
He has won two of his three chase starts very easily and is a nice prospect but he's beaten little of note (including here) and therein lies the problem. His trainer has made no secret all season of his regard for Tatenen who is the yard's number one, and perhaps only, contender for the two mile novices' crown and the reaction to Pasco's win is a reflection of the lack of credible candidates.
One of the market leaders is Calgary Bay despite the fact that Henrietta Knight has expressed her doubts about the suitability of the test for the exciting son of Taipan.
He wasn't in action himself this week but his Ascot conqueror, Panjo Bere, was and he lined up for the Montpelier Group Lightning Novices' Chase at Sandown. Favourite for the race was Free World who had disappointed behind Panjo Bere at Ascot but he returned to somewhere near his best with a game frontrunning performance with his jumping a joy to behold.
The hill once again proved to be his undoing as he was challenged on either side by Gauvain and Cornas and both managed to pass him on the run to the line in a pulsating finish.
Free World had looked very good when accounting for Gauvain and Planet Of Sound back in November but Paul Nicholls has always judged him to be inferior to Tatenen and the form of Free World's subsequent runs is bearing that out which doesn't bode well for the chances of those in this contest. Gauvain put a heavy fall behind him to stick his neck out, Cornas took a step forward from his impressive win at Ludlow but Panjo Bere and Doctor David both disappointed and it has been confirmed that the latter will miss Cheltenham.
The wind operation that Gauvain had prior to his penultimate start appears to have brought about some improvement and he will head to the Festival as may Cornas but handicaps may provide them with their best chance of success providing that the assessor takes a pragmatic view of the Free World form.
Collateral form is never easy to judge and Planet Of Sound has certainly improved since finishing adrift of Free World in November whilst Calgary Bay wasn't at his best going right-handed at Ascot and Panjo Bere failed to reproduce that form at Sandown but their form claims haven't been enhanced and we have yet to see an outstanding prospect in this division.