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Ouija Board - should win (Getty Images).
Click here for column three - Buzz hits Texas
Click here for column two - Powerscourt exciting O'Brien Click here for column one - Euro stars limber up
Coral PRO Simon Clare with the fourth instalment of his diary from the Breeders' Cup at Lone Star Park:
SAY YES TO OUIJA
The week-long build-up to Breeders' Cup day has passed without any major incident and all the main contenders appear fit and ready for the challenge ahead. Now all we have to do is work out who will be victorious in the eight fascinating contests that make up this fantastic meeting.
Distaff:
The curtain raiser is the Breeders' Cup Distaff run over one mile and one furlong on dirt and the absence of the red-hot favourite Azeri, who runs instead in the Classic, leaves this race wide open. Ashado is a luke-warm favourite on the basis of her Kentucky Oaks win but most of the 11 runners can be given some kind of chance. The value bet in the race is undoubtedly Nebraska Tornado. Yes, I know that not one European horse has ever won this race, but few have tried and none has been as well bred and prepared for the task as Nebraska Tornado. Her form this season is out of the top drawer, particularly her run against the colts in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, and being a Storm Cat filly there is every chance that she will not only act, but even improve, on the Lone Star dirt. Back her on the Paris Mutuel (PMU) as she could be around 15-1. My alternative selection is the attractive grey filly Island Fashion. Her form early this year was sensational but a disastrous trip to Japan blew the wheels off her campaign. Her recent win in a good trial, The Lady's Secret, suggests she is ready to return to her best and she will go close.
Selection: Nebraska Tornado
Alternative: Island Fashion
Juvenile Fillies:
Mona Lisa is certainly not a no-hoper given the way O'Brien's juveniles have been running lately and she is bred to appreciate the surface. Her run at Ascot in the Fillies Mile suggests she is near the top of the tree in terms of the European two-year-old fillies and a place is definitely within her compass. However, the favourite, Sweet Catomine, looks an absolute monster. She is a huge filly who won the most informative trial at Santa Anita last time out and is trained by one of the shrewdest handlers in the US. She will prove hard to beat. At a huge price have a few quid on Dance On Capote. She ran an extraordinary trial in the Alciabades when she came from miles back, wide around the outside and finished fourth beaten less than a length. She will stay all day and her English handler, Graham Motion, seems extremely bullish about her chance.
Selection: Sweet Catomine
Alternative: Dance On Capote
Mile:
This is the most competitive Breeders' Cup Mile for years and far stronger than last year's renewal won by Six Perfections. Nothing To Lose, Blackdoun, Musical Chimes, Artie Schiller and Special Ring are all very talented and in-form US milers and they will give the European contingent a real test. That said, both Six Perfections and Whipper look to have the perfect profile for the race. Six Perfections represents connections who have won this race five times before, and has the invaluable services of the best US jockey, Jerry Bailey, who won on her last year. I think she'll do it again. Whipper may give her most to do. Trained by Collet who trained a similar type in Last Tycoon to win the race in the 80s, Whipper will need luck in running from stall one but has the speed to chase Six Perfections home.
Selection: Six Perfections
Alternative: Whipper
Sprint:
This race is so competitive that you could run it 10 times and get 10 different results. The break from the stalls, luck in running and jockey decisions will have a huge bearing on the outcome but nothing will have more impact than the unique Lone Star track. On Thursday the two six-furlong sprints were hugely speed favouring and nothing could land a blow from off the pace. There are several horses with quite brilliant speed in this race and I expect one of them to win. Speightstown will go close if recapturing his form from earlier in the season. His dull effort last time out added to the short price put me off. Gold Storm, however, has plenty to recommend him. He is trained locally, loves the track, has excellent form and has blinding speed. He is a cracking each-way bet. Our New Recruit is my selection however. He proved himself a sprinting star when winning the Golden Shaheen in March and has been cleverly handled since. His recent comeback win proves he is ready to run a big race and his early speed will see him build up an advantage that he is unlikely to relinquish.
Selection: Our New Recruit
Alternative: Gold Storm
Filly & Mare Turf:
Make no mistake. If Ouija Board runs up to the form of any of her races this season she will win this race easily. Her connections are oozing confidence and she looked fantastic in her workouts on the track. Her hard race in the Arc and the fact that she has been on the go since April are a worry, but the US opposition is incredibly weak. Riskaverse, Moscow Burning, Film Maker and co have all been running against each other and there is nothing between them which tells you they are all average. Megahertz is trying to overcome a massive absence and Wonder Again can't be relied upon. The only alternatives to Ouija Board are Aubonne and Yesterday in my book. The former should have won the Flower Bowl but for traffic problems and the assistance of Jerry Bailey should ensure she beats all the Americans. If Yesterday can repeat last year's third she will at the very least be placed again. She comes into the race far fresher than last year, due to an interrupted season, and will get her favoured good ground rather than firm. I think Europe could have another 1-2-3.
Selection: Ouija Board
Alternative: Yesterday
Juvenile:
Who would have believed it? Europe has 25 per cent of the field in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. OK, so there are only two challengers in a race of just eight runners but it increases the chance of a shock. Wilco is being moved to race in the US and has run 10 times already this season. I can't see him being good enough. Scandinavia on the other hand makes more appeal. With a bit of luck he might have won the Royal Lodge and he is bred to love this surface. He stays all day and if the home team come up short, Scandinavia can win O'Brien his second Breeders' Cup Juvenile after Johannesburg's win at Belmont three years ago. Roman Ruler is the hyped up Bob Baffert two-year-old but he is an immense physical specimen and I am going to side with him. Afleet Alex, Sun King and Proud Accolade all finished 1-2-3 in the Champagne Stakes and though all three are fancied, their proximity to each other that day suggests none of them is a star.
Selection: Roman Ruler
Alternative: Scandinavia
Turf:
Have absolutely no doubt. This is a two-horse race. Kittens Joy for America versus Powerscourt for Ireland and Team Europe. Kittens Joy is the best US Turf horse for years but that's not saying very much. He was impressive last time out when he beat Magistretti and the connections won't hear of defeat. I have my doubts however. In Powerscourt we have a top-class Group One horse who has run several big races over 10 furlongs this year when his breeding and form suggests he is far better at 12 furlongs. He was awesome in the Arlington Million and beat Magistretti just as convincingly as Kittens Joy did in New York. Aidan O'Brien spoke confidently of his readiness earlier in the week and I am convinced that Powerscourt will give Kittens Joy one hell of a fright. If Kittens Joy wins, he'll prove himself the real deal, but until then I'm treating him as a pretender. Star Over The Bay will make the pace and could steal a few lengths if left on an easy lead. He can hang on for a place.
Selection: Powerscourt
Alternative: Star Over The Bay
Classic:
This is a great renewal of the Breeders' Cup Classic and it is only a shame that Bago is not in the line-up. The vibes about Pleasantly Perfect are all hugely positive but the long lay-off since his last run worries me. Birdstone beat nothing special in The Travers Stakes and should never have beaten Smarty Jones in the Belmont. Not for me. Ghostzapper was a sprinter last year, has never won over the trip and has an awful post position and I can't see him winning. So what will? The two on my shortlist are Dynever and Funny Cide. Funny Cide won the Kentucky Derby last year but ended the season tamely. His form has improved throughout this season and his win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup was a courageous effort. He will go close. Dynever is an extremely lightly-raced four-year-old who has had his injury troubles. On his day he is very talented as he proved when placed in this race last year. There is plenty of speed in the race and his closing style could well prove ideal.
Selection: Funny Cide
Alternative: Dynever
Keep checking back to our Breeders' Cup site for Simon's next update.
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