The Numbers Game

  • By: Matt Briggs
  • Last Updated: September 29 2012, 10:42 BST

The Banker landed last weekend as both teams scored in Crystal Palace's home clash with Cardiff and Bradford also capitalised on Oxford's injuries to register three points. Although it was a largely luckless weekend the Hot-Shots did register three from five as Leon Clarke, Jake Cassidy and Calvin Zola all scored.

Barnsley: Beat Birmingham 5-0 last weekend

Barnsley look well worth supporting this week against struggling Ipswich, while both teams to score in Bournemouth v Walsall is my Banker. I'm also supporting Cardiff, Scunthorpe, Exeter, Walsall and Morecambe and the bookies have some interesting views ahead of the weekend.

VALUE BET

Barnsley to beat Ipswich at 7/5.

To my peril I opposed Barnsley on home soil a few weeks ago, but I'm firmly on their side this week at home to luckless Ipswich. Paul Jewell seems to be on the brink for the Tractor Boys after losing their last three games and he could be pushed over the edge at Oakwell. The Tykes smashed Birmingham 5-0 at St Andrew's last week in what was the most surprising result of the day. And they can follow that up with another solid home win at attractive-looking odds.

STEAMERS

Sky Bet say Liverpool's youngsters impressed in the Capital One Cup at West Brom and now Brendan Rodgers side are being heavily backed to pick up their first league win of the season at Norwich and they're in from 10/11 to 8/11.

Championship leaders Brighton are a popular selection at home to Birmingham and have shortened from 5/6 to 8/11 - Birmingham's sorry performance against Barnsley clearly putting the punters off.

Bodog say there's been money all week for Arsenal to beat Chelsea at the Emirates with their price constricting from 5/4 to 6/5. The Gunners could go off at even money by kick-off.

Newcastle United are now 7/5 (from 6/4) to win at Reading following money for Alan Pardew's men. In the Championship we've drifted Leeds United from 7/4 to 15/8, despite their midweek heroics over Everton. Hosts Bristol City have seen money at 11/8.

Bet Victor say Spurs have been backed from 11/2 into 5/1 and Man United haven't played well this season.

WHO'S HOT

Manchester United (8/13) won their last four and host Tottenham (11/2). (5.30pm)
Brighton (5/6) won their last five in Championship and host Birmingham (4/1) (5.30pm).
Wolves (20/19) won last three in Championship and host Sheff Weds (16/5).
Huddersfield (15/13) won last three in Championship and host Watford (11/4).
Tranmere (13/10) won their last three in League One and host Brentford (12/5).
Gillingham (13/15) won last four in League Two and host Rochdale (4/1).
Bradford (6/4) won last three in League Two and host Port Vale (2/1).

WHO'S NOT

Reading (2/1) lost last three in Prem and host Newcastle (8/5).
Peterborough (7/1) lost last seven in Championship and face Hull (4/9).
Sheff Weds (16/5) lost last four in Championship and face Wolves (20/19).
Ipswich (21/10) lost last three in Championship and travel to Barnsley (7/5).
Millwall (3/1) lost last three in Championship and travel to Burnley (20/19).
Coventry (2/1) lost last five in league One and travel to Oldham (13/8).
Yeovil (4/1) lost last four in League One and travel to Preston (4/5).
Portsmouth (17/10) lost last three in League One and host Scunthorpe 19/10).
Oxford (15/4) lost last five in League Two and travel to Rotherham (10/11).
Wycombe (11/4) lost last three in League Two and travel to Dagenham (10/9).

TRADERS' VIEW

Bodog: We've knocked out Man Utd's price to an industry top 8/13 (from 4/7) because the Red Devils aren't playing well, despite grinding out results. Visitors Spurs will pose questions we believe.

10/11 Stoke City, who created enough chances to beat Chelsea at the Bridge last week, look a banker to beat Swansea at the Britannia and pick up their first win of the season.

BetVictor: We're keen to lay Chelsea. We were standout top price 14/5 earlier in the week and still keen to lay at a of price 13/5. Arsenal are 6/5 and 100/1 to score six (or more) for the third time in a row in front of their home crowd.

We are 4/9 Everton and will be hoping to get them in the satchel. I think they played Villa and Swansea away at the right time and defensively were poor against Newcastle in the last home game.

Liverpool are too short against Norwich at 4/5. They are worthy favourites but at that price I would prefer to be a layer and we're happy to take on Newcastle on at 6/4 at Reading despite the Royals being desperate against Spurs in their last home game.

Villa are 6/4 v Baggies and I think they will win. They had a great result midweek whereas Albion must have been disappointed to lose in the Capital One Cup.

QPR are due a change of luck but we are keen to lay at 23/20 given the natives will be getting increasingly restless if the R's don't score early.

Sky Bet: Leon Clarke has played four games for Scunthorpe and scored the first goal in all of them. His side is in from 9/5 to 11/8 and tipped to win at Portsmouth and Clarke is 9/2 to make it five.

BOGEY TEAMS

Man Utd (8/13) won 17 and lost none of last 22 Premier League games v Tottenham (11/2).
Everton (9/20) won five and lost none of their last seven at home v Southampton (8/1).
Fulham (15/4) won none of last six Premier League games v Man City (10/11).
Liverpool (5/6) won five and lost none of last six Premier League matches v Norwich (4/1).

BANKER

Bournemouth v Walsall - both teams to score at evens.

Both teams have only failed to score in one league game this season. All four of Bournemouth's home games have seen both teams score and Walsall have netted in all four of their away games so the even money looks a steal.

HOT-SHOTS

Leeds' Luciano Becchio has seven in nine and is 17/10 to score at Bristol C.
Newcastle's Demba Ba has three in two and is 2/1 to score at Reading.
Burnley's Charlie Austin has five in two (league) and is 13/10 to score v Millwall.
Rochdale's Dele Adebola has three in three and is 3/1 to score at Gillingham.

TREATMENT ROOM

Cardiff to beat Blackpool at 7/5.

Blackpool, who conceded three against Huddersfield on Monday night, will again be without influential central defender Craig Cathcart for up to three weeks with a calf injury.

Scunthorpe to beat Portsmouth at 19/10.

Portsmouth will be without injured striker Luke Rodgers (thigh) leaving the club with only one fit senior forward in Izale McLeod.

FAMOUS LAST WORDS

Exeter to beat Bristol Rovers at 10/11.

Exeter boss Paul Tisdale, speaking after last weekend's 2-1 defeat at Southend, said: "We're very irritated that we've lost late. It's frustrating as we've played so well today and we were every bit as good as we have been on the road in the previous three games. We were very controlled, very organised, very sensible and defended really well. We controlled the game and at 70 minutes I thought we had just as much chance, if not more, of scoring a second as they had of scoring an equaliser. "

Walsall DNB at Bournemouth at 12/5.

After last weekend's 4-0 defeat at Swindon Bournemouth manager Paul Groves said: "If you make bad mistakes in basic areas you get punished, as we were. You learn one or two things about players when the heat is on, as it was here, and that was not nice. We did not handle the intensity and were not brave enough."

Morecambe DNB at Cheltenham at 9/5 (Fri).

Speaking after Morecambe's 3-2 defeat to Plymouth keeper Barry Roche said: "On our travels we have been absolutely superb for the most part, Tuesday at Bradford being our first defeat and even then we should have got something from the game."

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