The Numbers Game

  • By: Matt Briggs
  • Last Updated: November 9 2012, 14:40 GMT

West Brom's Monday night win over Southampton (3/4) made it four wins from the last five Banker selections in the Numbers Game.

Stoke: Backed to win against QPR

However, the Value Bet has been struggling of late and Fulham (7/4) failed to deliver at the weekend, but there was an 11/10 winner in the form of Bury in Famous Last Words to leave that section well in profit for the season.

This week Stoke are the Banker and neighbours Port Vale the Value Bet to win at Southend, while there are some interesting views from the bookies.

And there are 13/5, 9/4, 19/10, 11/8 and 5/4 picks from the in-form Famous Last Words and Treatment Room.


Port Vale to win at Southend at 2/1

Vale have won five of their eight away games on the road and with just one defeat in eight League Two matches they are in decent form. Micky Adams' men have shown promotion-winning form of late and they look great value (despite being cut from 11/5) to see off a Shrimpers side who have won just three of their eight home fixtures and who recently lost at home to lowly Aldershot.


Bet Victor say Chelsea hit evens earlier in the week but are now back to a shade of odds on at 20/21. Southampton are solid at 7/5 in what is a cup final for their manager Nigel Adkins.

Paddy Power say despite the fact that they have drawn their last four Premier League fixtures, punters obviously feel Sunderland's form is far worse and therefore they have seen plenty of money for Everton this week from the opening price of 8/13 to the current offering of 1/2.

Bet Fred say the early money is for Man United at 8/15, who have an excellent record at Villa Park and the punters are getting stuck into Everton at home to Sunderland.

Bet365 say Chelsea are attracting plenty of attention v Liverpool and they are currently the firm's biggest Premier League loser of the weekend, but they're happy to lay them, whilst the same could be said about Arsenal against Fulham. The Championship is as competitive as ever with Huddersfield and Crystal Palace catching the eye of bet365 customers.

Sky Bet say there have been no massive moves of any note. As you would expect they have seen plenty of money on the big four teams at odds on (Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd and Chelsea). The firm quite like the look of Chelsea at 10/11 and their two best lays out of them have to be City and Arsenal.


Man Utd (4/7) won last four Premier League games and travel to Aston Villa (6/1) (5.30pm).
Crystal Palace (7/5) won last three Championship games and travel to Peterborough (21/10).
Hull (11/4) won last three Championship games and travel to Cardiff (23/20).
Sheffield United (13/5) unbeaten in 16 League One games and travel to MK Dons (13/10).


Southampton (6/4) lost last three Premier League games and host Swansea (2/1).
Bristol C (6/4) lost last six Championship games and host Charlton (19/10) (Sun).
Barnsley (17/10) lost last three Championship games and host Huddersfield (7/4).
L Orient (6/4) lost last four League One games and host Shrewsbury (21/10).
Portsmouth (11/5) lost last three League One games and travel to Bury (7/5).
Bristol R (13/8) lost last three League Two games and host Chesterfield (15/8).
Plymouth (11/4) lost last three League Two games and host Gillingham (21/20).


Bet365: "Everton and Man Utd are both odds on this weekend and coming up against sides against whom they have superb records.

"The Blues beat Sunderland 4-0 back in April and they're undefeated in the last 18 against a Sunderland side that look like they could be in a relegation scrap, whilst Man Utd are undefeated in their last 17 trips to Villa Park - and by the way, Wayne Rooney always seems to score against the Midlands side.

Paddy Power: "This week I shall be looking towards The Etihad Stadium for a punt but I won't be siding with the home team.

"A string of poor performances in their last few games in the Premier League and in the Champions League sees Man City go into this game under huge pressure to get a result against a Tottenham team that haven't been in top form either, but if they can put out a fully-fit team, I feel the odds available of 5/1 are generous and will cause Man City plenty of problems."

Betfred: "This week we are happy to lay both Arsenal and Man City. Fulham have never won at Arsenal but we believe the Gunners are vulnerable at the moment.

"Man City have had the upper hand over Spurs in the last three but their record before against Spurs was shocking. Plus with City struggling to keep clean sheets we are happy to take them on."

BetVictor: "Liverpool's Luis Suarez is very popular at 7/1 first goalscorer. We're keen to lay Chelsea and no surprise to see evens again in the run up to the game.

"Swansea are weak at St Mary's in what could be the last chance saloon for Nigel Adkins. Swansea are out to 2/1 and they haven't scored in their last three on the road.

"You wouldn't have expected to see Sunderland at 7/1 at Goodison at the beginning of the season but that is their price. They have a poor record against Everton although they did force a replay in the FA Cup last season.

"Newcastle are evens against West Ham. There's no Fabricio Coloccini, no Chieck Tiote and the Magpies are too short. Both Kevin Nolan and Andy Carroll scored twice for Newcastle against West Ham and I think this will be the shock of the weekend."

Sky Bet: "You would have to be very brave to trust Arsenal at 1/2 at the moment and Fulham have looked more than capable this season and will fancy their chances at The Emirates.

"While Spurs have produced some great performances away from home this season not least of which at Old Trafford for a great win. Roberto Mancini is under massive pressure at Manchester City and this looks a tough test for them and we are happy to get them in the book at 8/15.

"MK Dons have been smashed into 21/20 at home to League One leaders Sheffield Utd after opening at 6/5 last week, while Bournemouth are now 11/8 from 13/8 to get another victory under Eddie Howe at Doncaster."


Fulham (6/1) have never won away at Arsenal (4/7) in any competition, losing 22 and drawing four of 26 visits.
Everton (1/2) have won 11 and lost none of their last 15 Premier League games v Sunderland (7/1).
Aston Villa (6/1) have won one of the last 33 Premier League meetings v Manchester United (4/7).
Liverpool (3/1) have lost only two of their last 11 Premier League games v Chelsea (evens) (Sun, 4pm).


Stoke to beat QPR at 10/11

The Potters are a team in style transition with Tony Pulis now looking for his side to place the emphasis on patient passing. The new style has yet to pay dividends, but it's only early days, and QPR are unlikely to press too much at the Britannia. Stoke are unbeaten at home in four matches - but their only win came against Swansea and they can make it two wins against a struggling R's side.


Burnley's Charlie Austin is Europe's top goalscorer and he is decent value at 7/2 to score first at Ipswich.
New Huddersfield striker Simon Church is 21/10 to score at Barnsley, who tried to sign him.
Norwich's Grant Holt is 12/5 to score against Reading.


Charlton to win at Bristol City at 19/10 (Sun).

Bristol City duo Stephen McManus and Cole Skuse are set for six weeks on the sidelines and will miss Sunday's home clash with Charlton. McManus, on loan from Middlesbrough, has strained ligaments while Skuse will undergo surgery shortly on a fractured cheekbone - both sustained their injuries in Tuesday night's 2-0 defeat at Birmingham.

Dagenham to beat Rotherham at 13/5

The Millers' treatment room is jam-packed at the minute with Scott Shearer (knee), Lionel Ainsworth (shoulder), Dale Tonge (ankle) and David Noble (hamstring) all long-term absentees. They have been joined by Kari Arnsason, who is a doubt with a shoulder injury, while on-loan winger Jamie Devitt has returned to his parent club Hull for treatment on a hamstring injury.

Manchester United (-1) to beat Aston Villa at 11/8

Villa left-back Eric Lichaj will be banned after picking up his fifth yellow card of the campaign during the 1-0 win at Sunderland. Fellow left-back Joe Bennett is struggling to overcome a knee injury. Striker Darren Bent is again absent with his ankle injury.


Brighton to win at Wolves at 9/4

Speaking after the midweek 1-0 win over Peterborough, Brighton boss Gus Poyet said: "I hope this win can be a turning point. It's up to us. We have got two difficult away games now [Wolves and Huddersfield] and we must keep believing. In the second half it was all about us. We had 32 shots and scored one goal. But the key to it was we didn't concede a goal so we won the game. If you don't concede it gives you the chance of winning."

Morecambe to beat Barnet at 5/4.

After the midweek goalless draw against Accrington, Morecambe manager Jim Bentley said: "After some of the saves that Ian Dunbavin pulled off in both halves, when you get a penalty in injury time, you think he's had that good a night that he'll probably save this as well. He pulled off an outstanding save to cap what was a world-class performance."