Woods - hard to see him being beaten.

Mark Ferguson

The 134th Open Championship will ultimately be decided by three factors - putting, mental fortitude and the unique micro-climate that is St Andrews.

If the weather stays fine, as expected, and the wind does not blow any harder than Saturday afternoon, there is only one winner.

However, if the elements start to play a major factor, we are set for a most intriguing afternoon.

What ever the heavens decide, you would be a fool not be fixed to the sofa, absorbed by the action.

The forecast suggests that the weather is set fair and the wind will be moderate so it makes sense to analyse more extensively what will likely happen given this scenario.

The answer is simple.

Tiger Woods will win his 10th Major championship.

While his less than stellar round on Saturday opened the door for the field, they are in no doubt that Woods will not be so generous today.

It is hard to imagine Tiger playing any worse than that, given the way he is swinging the golf club with such authority at the moment.

He would be the first to admit he played poorly - his reaction when he holed that terrific par putt on 17 was more out of relief than anything else.

If he made bogey, he was in grave danger of losing his lead going into the final round.

As it transpired, he made birdie at the last to open upon up a two-shot cushion.

The putt had further significance than just to give Tiger a lead into today.

In holing a putt which he and everyone else in the small town of Fife knew was absolutely crucial to the dynamic of the tournament, he sent a message loud and clear to the rest of the field - he is going to do everything physically and mentally possible in his power to regain the coveted Claret Jug.

Moreover, it underlined Tiger's reputation as the best pressure putter in the game.

As good as the likes of Olazabal and Faxon are on the greens, it is doubtful that either would have sunk the putt that Woods holed on 17 under similar circumstances.

Even when he struggles from tee to green, he never loses self belief and invariably finds a way to grind out a score in red figures.

The case for Woods is clear enough but in case anyone need further convincing - he leads the tournament in putts per round (88) and his final-round scoring average when leading a 'major' is a mightily impressive 69.55.

The would-be challengers know what faces them today.

"The whole tournament depends on what Tiger does," said Darren Clarke one of 11 players tied at six-under-par after Saturday's 67.

"If he gets going again, then he's going to be very tough to catch.

"But if he gets a bit too aggressive and makes a mistake or two (it) might let the other guys in."

This is unlikely to happen as his record as a closer is unparalleled.

He thrives on the pressure and has gone on to win all nine times he has held at least a share of the 54-hole lead at a 'major championship'.

Unlike those chasing him, he can afford to play safe when playing to tight pins and be conservative on the greens.

"I think it certainly doesn't hurt," Woods said when asked about his success playing with the lead.

"Having the experience to call upon and know how to handle going out there and playing with the lead, I've done it before.

"So I can always say that and believe in it, because I know I have done it. So hopefully tomorrow I can put a quality round together."

Closest challenger to Woods is Jose Maria Olazabal.

Only playing due his compatriot Seve Ballesteros' withdrawal, the Spaniard is in very relaxed spirits this week.

This will certainly help him today as he prepares to do battle in the presence of the Tiger.

Furthermore, he has only had two genuine chances to win Major Championships - 1994 and 1999 Masters - he won them both.

He did finish second to Woosnam at Augusta in 1991 but that was more due to the Welshman winning it that Olazabal losing it.

Therefore, he has a proven record under the gun but while he may not fade away today, his last Major triumph was over six years ago and I strongly doubt whether he can beat Tiger after already giving the world No1 a start.

Goosen and Montgomerie are next best at nine under.

The South African is a proven 'major' winner but the scars of last month's US Open meltdown will surely enter his mind at some point and there is also the question mark over his form.

It has not been Retief's best year and I believe his lofty position is more of a result of getting the best of the conditions on all three days as opposed to consistent play.

The sentimental vote as well as the vast majority of support undoubtedly rests with Montgomerie.

That said, it may prove too much for him as he has a tendency to get awfully up tight in 'majors'.

He has looked very relaxed and at peace with himself this week but this is the final round of The Open and at some point, I fear he will let the enormity of the situation get the better of him.

If he can somehow simulate his Ryder Cup heroics, the Scotsman has a chance but even then, overcoming a three-shot deficit to Tiger is an awfully tall order.

Four shots back on eight under are Sergio Garcia and Brad Faxon.

The enigmatic Garcia still fancies his chances and on the evidence of his long game, he has every right to think he can go on and break his 'major duck'.

He is certainly playing with a great deal of confidence and would relish the opportunity to hunt down Tiger.

That said, he holds the unenviable record of most three putts this week - seven - and that may prove costly in the final analysis.

Faxon held a share of the lead at the halfway stage back in 1995 when Daly won but fell back with rounds of 75 and 74.

He did a similar thing the year before at Turnberry. A final round of three over par opened the door for Nick Price, who fired a brilliant 66.

Despite those setbacks, Faxon responded brilliantly at the 1995 US PGA by shooting a final round 63 to book his spot on the Ryder Cup team.

He is a ferocious competitor and a deadly putter - don't be surprised if he ends up the closest pursuer of his countryman.

On the face of it, at five behind, Michael Campbell and Vijay Singh still have a chance.

Cambo is certainly full of confidence and the Old Course owes him one after his collapse in 1995 but expecting him to add The Open to the US Open is tantamount to dreaming.

He did manage to hold off Tiger at Pinehurst but that was with a lead; this time it is a completely story altogether.

Vijay Singh has the ability to mount a serious final round charge.

His ball-striking has been imperious for the past two years and this week has been no exception.

With the putter though, it has been a totally different picture.

The world No2 looks decidedly shaky on the undulating St Andrews greens and while Vijay will keep hitting irons close and battling to the end, problems with the flat stick will prove too much to overcome.

The long list of contenders at six under will take heart that birdies are out there - Ernie Els' run of four in the row from the seventh are testament to that

From those at six behind, I fancy last week's US PGA tour winner, Sean O'Hair, to fare the best.

He is full of confidence on the back of his maiden victory and considering he did not even arrive until Wednesday afternoon, his performance this week has been fantastic.

Expect him to continue his run of form and get into double digits.

As I intimated earlier, the only fly in the ointment to Woods' second Open win is the weather.

He is certainly suspect when the wind blows, Carnoustie 1999 and most notably Muirfield 2002, are two of a number of examples.

It would be interesting to see how he would cope if the wind blew harder than Saturday, especially playing alongside Olazabal, used to playing in all conditions on The Old Course and a master of the short game.

Moreover, Woods has been periodically taking short game lessons off the Spanish genius and it may be a psychological blow to Woods if Olly starts to produce his full array of brilliance around the greens.

In any event, Tiger just seems to hole the vast majority of pressure putts down the stretch.

He is the best 'clutch' putter of all time and if and when the going gets tough today, his mental strength and unwavering belief in his ability will enable him to once again lift the claret jug.