Betting Box Tipping Guide
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BETTING BOX
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SPREADS
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3pts sell of the winning score at 266.5 (Sporting Index). |
Decent forecast and easier conditions suggest a lower winning total. |
The Official 2006 PGA Tour season comes to a close this weekend at the Tour Championship in Atlanta.
The grand finale for the top 30 on the money list has turned into a bit of damp squib with the top two players in the world, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, failing to turn up where the prize for last place is a paltry $106,000.
There is no defending champion as Bart Bryant did not earn enough money to qualify finishing seventieth on the money list with just over $1.3 million in the bank.
There are only 27 players in the tournaments as Stephen Ames has pulled out due to injury.
It's not going to be the same level playing field as last year when the course was playing hard and fast with tough rough and the chances of the long and short hitters evened out.
There was a lot of rain at East Lake Golf Club on Friday and combined with a frost last week the conditions are going to be a lot different.
The course dries very well but is very soft in comparison to previous years. The fairways are on the narrow side at 25-30 yards but with little roll on the ball it will be a poor shot that finds the rough.
Even then the players are not going to be as troubled by poor tee shots as the rough is well down on previous years. Don't get me wrong it is still rough and players can get bad lies but Arron Oberholser after his practice round said: "You can still get a four or five iron on the club and get some control into the green."
The greens are also a lot slower this year. They are still running very smoothly and even though they will be cut, and dry out as the week goes on, players can send the ball high and land it softly.
The greens hear are generally a good size about 35 yards deep but most slope heavily back to front and also slope in from the sides. Most are protected by big white sand bunkers on either side.
Ball control will be at a premium as it is imperative to leave uphill putts on these greens, although downhill lag puts will much less scary this year.
The only protection against low scoring will be the difficult pins positions and players who short side themselves could easily be left with twenty or thirty feet putts for par.
Remember this is a par 70 track with only two par fives. The 9th at 600 yards is mostly downhill and plays to a five year average of 4.66. The 15th is not only one of the easiest par five's on tour averaging .067 under par but it is also one of the shortest at 495 yards.
Six other holes played at even par or less over the last five years.
The 2nd, 3rd 6th, 7th and 8th all offer solid birdie opportunities on the front nine. The par three 11th and downhill par four's, 12th and 14th, offer further birdie possibilities on the back nine.
There are some very difficult holes.
The 5th was lengthened to 520 yards last year and played more than a quarter shot over par and is without doubt the most difficult hole on the course. It is unlikely that more than a handful of players will play this hole in even par or better over the four days.
The 469 yard par four10th is usually played as a par five by the members and presents a serious challenge.
The finishing stretch looks difficult on paper and the 16th and 18th in particular are formidable holes.
The 16th is a downhill 489 yard par four to a heavily slopping green. The 18th, 235 yards uphill to a heavily protected slopping green, is one the most difficult par three's on tour.
The winning score in the last four years has been 267, 268, 269 and 263. You can safely ignore Hal Sutton's 1998 winning score of 273 as the game is totally different nowadays and the players know the course a lot better now.
That makes the average winning score 13.25 under par and the median winning score is 267.5 or 12.5 under par.
Sporting Index have priced up the winning score at 266.5-267.5 or 13.5-12.5 under par.
So it looks like the spread boys have it just about right, but not so.
Tiger and Phil may be absent but with only one win between them in last four years their non attendance will have little effect on reducing the winning score in fact quite the opposite.
With no Tiger and Phil the players all feel they have a better chance of winning. They are not forced out of the comfort zones by Tiger watching and with less media and fans around there are less distractions.
More importantly though the scoring conditions are far easier than we have seen previous years. Retief Goosen no slouch round here told me that he expected general scoring to be much lower this year and although Bart Bryant played out of his skin last year he feels that players will get close to that number.
There are still seven of the world's top ten ranked players in the field. With seven players finding the winner's circle in the last six weeks and another four posting top six finishes last time out there are enough quality players in good form to beat that quote.
Given that the weather looks set to co-operate with only a little wind on Thursday afternoon, there should be little to stop the players going low.
The Sporting Index quote is at least one point too high.
It's been a great year reporting from 25 live PGA tournaments and you'll be hearing from me again next year as I still have another 830 tournaments to go before paying off my Monty!
Preview posted at 2300GMT on 01/11/2006.
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