SATURDAY - ROUND THREE
8.15am: Despite downpours last night, the rain has eased again although there is still drizzle in the air. The golfer's worst enemy - wind - has still to materalise and the flags are just rippling although that could change later today. Fredrik Andersson gets day three under way.
8.30am: The rain has ceased and in the distance there are clear skies. Scoring conditions look to be good.
9am: The press centre and tented village can act as a shelter so I've just walked to a more exposed part of the course and the wind is picking up. I was thinking how best to describe it and then a folically challenged spectator provided the answer. It's the sort of wind that causes a comb-over to rise up and stay there. I'm going on about the weather a bit because play has only just got under way. It could be significant though that the early starters are struggling.
9.05am: The first tee is the shortest of walks to the press centre and I've just heard the starter announce: "On the tee, Phil Mickelson." Lefty needs a bit of a miracle today after his 76 yesterday left him seven off the pace and needs to get off to a quick start. Jesper Parnevik is in the next group out at 9.15am while at 10am defending champ David Duval and another former winner, Greg Norman, go off. Ten minutes after that it's the two Justins - Rose and Leonard. Readers will know by now that I've backed Leonard to do well while I want Rose to do badly after buying his finishing position. As you might expect, this is the group I shall be following for a while. Of our other tips Davis Love goes out at 10.30, Sergio Garcia at 12.40, Tiger Woods at 2.30 and big hope Ernie Els at 3.30. Els is in the last group of the day alongside Shigeki Maruyama.
9.40am: I've just picked up a printout listing all the stats from the championship so far. It makes interesting reading. After the first two days, Shigeki Maruyama is the most accurate driver, Soren Hansen is the longest driver, Padraig Harrington has hit most greens in regulation and Ernie Els has taken fewest putts. Stats can be misleading but three of these categories are topped by players shared for the outright lead. As for Tiger, he is tied 38th in driving accuracy, tied 15th in driving distance (by choice, as he's hitting plenty of irons off the tee), tied sixth in greens hit and, drumroll.... tied 114th in putting. Could it be that a cold putter will eventually undo him this week?
9.45am: After a slow start, there's some good early scores going up. Aussie Peter Lonard is three under for the day after just four holes while Woosie, Steve Elkington and Jesper Parnevik are two under for their rounds. Will someone make a dramatic third round move similar to that of David Duval 12 months ago?
9.55am: A printout from Ladbrokes at the back of the press tent shows Woods as the 6/4 favourite, our big hope Ernie Els at 5/1, Harrington 7/1, Maruyama 12/1 and Colin Montgomerie at 14s.
10am: It's Justin time. I'm heading out to the course to watch Rose and Leonard and boo and cheer accordingly. As I set off it seems the wind is settling again. Perhaps that explains the fact that Peter Lonard is going mad. The Australian is five-under for the day after just five holes!
12.15pm Well, it's the wrong result for me as Rose wins the battle of the Justins over the first nine holes. After hacking out of the rough at the first and saving par, Rose bides his time and accelerates with birdies at five and six. The sixth is particularly agonising as Leonard twice flies his ball into the rough. The second one requires a search-party and after a lengthy ruling he can only hack out sideways. In the end he does very well to get up and down. But better news at the ninth as Leonard makes bogey and Rose can only par. Rose then drives into the bunker on the 10th. As I make the walk back to the press tent, I catch him slamming his driver into the ground and muttering obscenities. Perhaps the momentum is turning. Can I just stress again that I have nothing against Rose. Just because I've bet against him this week doesn't mean I won't tip him to win in the future. But it's Leonard who I want to start motoring and he needs a good back nine now. Justin's Dad and wife are in the galleries following him round but so far their added support hasn't paid off.
12.35pm Phil Mickelson's Open woes continue. A second successive 76 leaves him at +7 and out with the washing. He takes 41 on his outward nine today before avoiding a complete calamity by returning in 35. Nevertheless another Open slips by and all Phil's analysis about spin and ball flight now looks all rather futile.
12.40pm Sergio Garcia prepares to tee off. The Spaniard has hardly been mentioned so far but crept into the fringes of contention on Friday by coming home in 33 to finish two under. I stick my neck out of the press tent to see him tee off and he picks his tee up immediately to suggest he's hit one down the middle. I have a sneaking feeling that the Spaniard could really do something today. Outside the weather continues to fluctuate. It was calm when I started following the Rose-Leonard group at 10.10am this morning but by the third both players had changed into wet-weather gear. But a few holes later they were off again as the rains stopped. Now the umbrellas are back up.
1pm: Just a quick progress check on our tips. Els is tied first, Woods tied 9th, Garcia tied 17th, Leonard, Rose and Estes tied 38th and Love tied 57th. To sum up it's tantalisingly poised. We could have the tournament winner and our spreads tips could all do well. Or they could all fade away. Just as I'm typing this, Rose puts his approach to three inches at the 15th. Blast!
1.45pm: The two Justins finish on the 18th green and after a good duel both finish with impressive 68s to leaves themselves at –2 for the tournament. Leonard does particularly well to shoot 68 after a slow start while Rose may reflect on some missed opportunities after letting a number of putts slip by. Apparently I'm not the only one who wants Rose to wilt. A number of bookmakers have big liabilities on the Englishman although it looks fairly safe for them at this stage. Surrey are one such firm and they have bigger worries over joint leader Shigeki Maruyama. They were a standout 100/1 about the Japanese ace at the start of the tournament and he, along with Rose, would be their worst result.
2.05pm Blast, Sergio drops a shot to slip back to –2. I'm not the only one obsessed by betting in this room however. Walking back to my seat, I pass Statto perusing the Betfair website.
2.30pm: First rule of attending a British Open – bring an umbrella! It's really starting to rain hard outside and I've not got one. Luckily, PA reporter Phil Casey is going to lend me his. The second rule of golf watching is bring a radio. I find it staggering how few people have them. Perhaps most of the galleries see a day at the Open as a good walk unspoiled. I don't expect everyone to share my thirst for information but surely you need to know more scores than the group you're following. The famous yellow scoreboards only carry the leading six or seven players and there are only a couple of giant manual scoreboards situated around the course where everyone is listed. For the majority of a round, you'll be in the dark as to who's scoring what. With a radio there's no such problem. Each station has reporters dotted all over the course and it's easy to gain a picture of what's going on.
2.45pm: For the third day running, Tiger makes a hash of his opening drive. A bogey sends him back to three-under. The dish of the day in the press canteen is meatballs so I'll watch from there as Tiger tries to rescue another poor drive at the second.
3.30pm: The whole point of this diary is to give an impression of what it's like to be here. So, despite the atrocious conditions outside, you'll be expecting me to go outside to tell you just what it's like to be here at Muirfield as the rain pours and the wind lashes. But will I be actually shedding any light if I come back after two hours and say it was awful, I'm drenched wet through and covered in mud. The alternative is to watch the action on the giant TV screens, check the live hole-by-hole scores on the computer next to me and help myself to a selection of free drinks. It's a really tough decision. Perhaps I could make this next bit a “five hour special from inside the press tent”, answering questions live on e-mail? Joint-leader Ernie Els goes out now.... Oh what the hell. I'm going for it. If I catch pneumonia, then so be it. As Oates said to Captain Scott before dying of frostbite in the Antarctic: "I'm going outside, I may be some time."
3.55pm: In fact, I wasn't any time at all. But unlike Captain Oates I'm alive to tell the tale. At least it wasn't a totally pointless exercise as I can report to you that after 25 minutes of being out there I'm completely wet through. Rain down the back of the neck, soggy socks, the full works. Just trying to keep hold of an umbrella was hard enough and the streams and streams of people flooding to the exit gates early was reminiscent of Goodison Park on a Saturday afternoon.
4.30pm: Tiger Woods has drifted out to an amazing 10/1 as the weather tears the Open betting apart. Five dropped shots in the first six holes has seen his challenge for a third 'major' literally blown away. Padraig Harrington briefly became the clear favourite for the tournament after a birdie at the first but a double bogey at the fourth has dropped him back to 4/1 joint favourite with Ernie Els, who, like everyone is fighting a losing battle with the elements. There's a feeling now that Justin Leonard and Justin Rose could end the day in the lead - a remarkable state of affairs. Our 50/1 tip Leonard is 8/1 with Rose 10/1.
5pm: The carnage continues. Woods takes 42 shots to the turn to slip back to +2 and all the leaders are going backwards by the hole. But somehow Nick Price makes an eagle at the ninth to go to –4. Ladbrokes slash him to 5/1. The favourites now are Els, Harrington and Garcia at 4/1. Garcia, our 20/1 pre-tournament tip, is safely in the clubhouse and about to come into the press tent to be interviewed. Surely he will grinning from ear to ear. Woods is now 16/1 with Justin Leonard 6/1.
5.15pm: Sergio Garcia tells a packed press conference that he's going to have a hot bath and then watch TV. And who can blame him? He guesses that par today is more like 76 or 77 so his even par 71 that sees him currently just one off the lead is a great effort. The Spaniard also reveals that it's not the foulest weather he's countered on these shores. Apparently he played Turnberry in his amateur days when it was even worse!
5.40pm: I've just been outside for five minutes and although it's cold and still raining, the winds have definitely dropped. There's a chance now that scores may start to steady a little. But Tiger continues to leak shots and there's a loud gasp in the press tent as he fails to get out of a bunker. It results in a double bogey which puts him back to +6 for the tournament and nine shots off the lead.
6pm: Spare a thought for in-running odds-compilers today. What a nightmare they have trying to constantly re-adjust their prices. I have to confess that I'm starting to get a little bit excited about the state of our tips. Our 20/1 shot Sergio Garcia is now 4/1 favourite with 50/1 Justin Leonard now 6/1 joint-second favourite alongside Nick Price. Even Davis Love on +1 isn't out of it and I just hope Ernie Els can hang in there. He's taken 40 to the turn and is now -2. Tiger's just missed a putt from six inches!
6.30pm: After the diabolical conditions today, the weather forecast for tomorrow takes on extra significance. So, hot of the press, the Met Office printout we've just received says: “Bright or sunny spells and some scattered showers at first. North to northwesterly winds 15 to 20mph at first, easing a little, 10 to 15mph by the end of the morning. Afternoon mainly dry with more in the way of sunny spells developing. Northwesterly winds backing westerly, 10 to 15mph. Top temperature 17C (63F).” Hopefully, then, today has been something of a freak.
7.30pm: All that stuff about being a champion in defeat can be a cliché but you have to admire Tiger Woods as he emerges from the scorer's hut after his shocking 81. Tiger was probably five years old when he last shot that number but instead of stomping off in a huff with his Grand Slam dream now in tatters he talks to the waiting press for a good 15 minutes, smiling frequently. I'm stood next to Mark O'Meara at the time who says he's “proud of his friend” and rightly so. As Tiger walks right past me, a member of the bar staff reminds him that he's “still the man” and, graciously, Tiger even manages a “thanks”. By contrast, Colin Montgomerie, playing in the next group, says nothing and leaves straight away. A quick note to those who want a two-ball bet tomorrow. Thomas Levet's caddie says his guy was playing great, especially with his driver, and should have shot three of four shots better than a still impressive 74. Levet finishes the day on –1.
7.45pm: Well, there's a feeling of this is too good to be true as a remarkable final day comes to a close. Ernie Els leads by two and Justin Leonard and Sergio Garcia are tied third. We've backed them at 18/1, 50/1 and 20/1 respectively as well as selling their finishing positions on the spreads. Although the decision to oppose Justin Rose has gone wrong again, our finishing position sells of Davis Love and Bob Estes are doing fine. Both are tied 23rd. But it's that man Ernie Els who I am really banking on tomorrow. I've followed the Big Easy at the last six Opens and at last this could be the year when he finally lands the claret jug. He has an 11-shot lead over Tiger and surely that means the world number one won't be a factor. A fascinating day awaits tomorrow.
8pm: A quick check of Ladbrokes updated odds shows that Els is the even money favourite ahead of Sergio Garcia at 8/1 and Justin Leonard and Soren Hansen at 10s. Defending champion David Duval is 25/1 to keep his title while Tiger is 80/1.
8.15pm: If you want a clue why Els came through today, he told his press conference that he's seen all this before. Els was a regular at the Dunhill Cup at St Andrews often in miserable weather in October. Rain or shine come Sunday, let's hope our tip Els is the man for all seasons.
