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 WORLD CUP ANALYSIS
Picture Beckham's England can knock out Brazil.

WHY ENGLAND WILL WIN

By Dave Tindall

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We all love watching Brazil and the bookies make them hot favourites to win the tournament but anyone can see there are glaring weaknesses in the class of 2002.

I have to admit that the men in yellow have been a revelation in this World Cup. We were told that coach Luis Felipe Scolari had stifled their creativity and told his team to make defence their number one priority.

That has proved laughably wide of the mark.

This Brazilian blend share the same attacking philosophy espoused by the 1982 team of Zico, Socrates and Eder. But as that team ultimately proved it's a style that is almost certainly doomed to fail in a World Cup.

Italy were the executioners of that fantastic 1982 team and Sven Goran Eriksson's England look ideally equipped to deliver the knockout blow this time.

In fact, plenty of comparisons can be drawn between Italy 82 and England 2002. Both teams had an excellent defence marshaled by a veteran goalkeeper. Both teams started the tournament as if they'd be going home sooner rather than later. And both teams have a striker capable of running riot against an ill-disciplined defence.

For Paulo Rossi in 1982, read Michael Owen. Like Owen, Rossi failed to find the net in the group stages but then came alive in spectacular fashion. He netted a hat-trick to knock out the Brazilians, added two more in the semi-final and secured the Golden Boot by taking his tally to six in the final against Germany.

Owen is up and running after his first-half strike against Denmark and the floodgates could now open – especially if Brazil defend the way they have been.

But while Owen could be chief executioner it's England's defence who hold the key to victory on Friday.

Since Niclas Alexandersson netted for Sweden in England's opening game, the back line of Seaman, Mills, Cole, Ferdinand and Campbell haven't conceded a goal in over five hours of football. That is an outstanding record.

Unquestionably, Brazil will give them their toughest test yet but England are starting to feel a sense of invincibility at the back and a clean sheet is not beyond them.

The men they have to watch like hawks are Ronaldo and Rivaldo – scorer of nine goals between them already in this World Cup. Both are on course to match Jairzinho's feat of 1970 by scoring in every game but they will do well to keep that record going.

A number of their goals have come cheaply against moderate defences or teams chasing the game. Rivaldo pulled out a beauty against Belgium but he can't do that in every game. The Brazilian number ten reminds me of Italy's Roberto Baggio in 1994. He's come up with some vital goals but to be honest has been ineffectual for large periods. Baggio couldn't paper over the cracks with another goal in the final and perhaps Rivaldo will suffer a similar fate against England.

Ronaldo, on the other hand, has looked hugely impressive but he can only do so much. Belgium cut off his supply line with great effect in the second-half on Monday and although he got his customary goal it came when the Belgians had to chase the game. If England can close down Rivaldo and shepherd the flashy but largely ineffectual Ronaldinho into safe areas then Ronaldo will not see much of the ball.

Football, like boxing, is so often decided by how the opposition matches up. And crucially, with their ability to defend well and hit teams on the break, England look a good match against a Brazil side who push forward in numbers and leave cavernous gaps at the back.

And if David Beckham, Paul Scholes and Nicky Butt can pick the right pass, they have the ideal striker in Owen to finish them off.

Brazil may turn out to be the Harlem Globetrotters of this World Cup. Their tricks and flicks will mesmerize but put them up against a disciplined team with a disciplined defence and there just isn't the substance to go with the show.

If you're a romantic, Brazil's individual brilliance will be too much.

But, in reality, the smart money says that England's more earthy qualities will see them to victory.


 
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