Time to get physical
Dale Tempest has been a professional footballer and now he is Sky Bet's PR guru.
- Related Content
The former Fulham, Huddersfield and Colchester striker knows both sides of the betting fence - he's got his finger on the pulse of the markets as both a punter and a bookmaker.
In his new column for us, he's concentrating on some of the lesser-known markets and exploring the mindset of the bookies.
This week the Premier League returns and Dale has two bets he likes the look of.
There are times when you simply have to throw the stats away and simply get inside the minds of the players. When players have been humiliated you generally find you get a reaction. That can be firstly by producing a much better performance but usually by being much more physical in their approach. In the players' mind, they need to show people - the fans, the manager - that they care. This Saturday there's a match which stands out where this is likely to happen. Since humiliating cup exits to Bradford and Millwall, Villa have had a total of 13 yellow cards in their three Premier League games. There were three against West Ham, four at Everton and six against Newcastle. It seems if they are to go down they will go down fighting. Opponents Arsenal have had a bad week. Humiliated against Blackburn, they were then torn apart by a classy Bayern Munich side. They had five yellows against Bayern, going in with a similar mentality I've talked about after their Blackburn loss. Basically going 'over' in the bookings markets has to be play in this game. There's also an added bonus for punters as Martin Atkinson is officiating. He is the strictest referee in the Premier League with 3.95 per game handed out.
Very few people play the draw - it's usually a great result for the bookies. Punters usually want a positive result one way or the other as they side with a particular team. However, you get games where the draw is the value pick and Norwich v Everton is one such match. Norwich have drawn 11 times in the league so far this season, while Everton go one better with 12. Overall that's 23 of these sides' 52 games finishing level - a percentage of 44. You don't have to be a mathematician to know that 12/5 about the draw is a decent price. There are so many teams with a similar ability in the Premier League that I often like to choose a draw 'trixie' (a treble and three doubles). The other games I like the look of this weekend are Reading v Wigan and Fulham v Stoke, so hopefully I can gain some funds to put in the war chest for the forthcoming Cheltenham Festival!