Don't leave early at the Lane

  • By: Andy Schooler
  • Last Updated: December 16 2012, 16:18 GMT

Andy Schooler previews Sunday's two Premier League games with a late goal at White Hart Lane his fancy.

Spurs have struggled to keep goals out under Andre Villas-Boas
Spurs have struggled to keep goals out under Andre Villas-Boas

Tottenham v Swansea (1330 GMT)

You've probably heard this week the statistic about how Spurs would be top of the league if games had ended after 80 minutes. While clearly meaningless in terms of a big picture, what it does show is that there could well be some value in markets regarding late goals. Closer inspection shows a goal in the last 15 minutes could well be worth backing. Spurs have conceded 13 times in that period in 24 games this season, with home points subsequently dropped against Norwich and West Brom. The hosts, who admittedly could have Scott Parker back for this one though he's sure to be rusty, have also scored eight goals in the study period, while Swansea have bagged 11 themselves. Both sides' last three matches have featured a goal after 75 minutes. An added bonus for this contest is that the Swans, for whom Michu continues to score on a regular basis, were involved in midweek action, beating Middlesbrough (with a late goal) in the Capital One Cup so there's every chance legs will be wearier than they might be come the closing stages. Spurs have plenty of goal threat, including the pacy Jermain Defoe, and could well capitalise. Paddy Power's 10/11 about either side scoring in the final 15 minutes seems more than fair - it's 11/20 in places - so a small play is advised.

Verdict: Tottenham 3 Swansea 2

West Brom v West Ham (1600)

Backing the Baggies was en vogue a month ago and this site profited from their success more than once. However, after three defeats on the spin backing them around the even-money mark now does not look good business. They've scored just one goal in that period, one which many had predicted would come after such an unexpectedly good start. However, West Ham don't look in the best shape to capitalise on the hosts' poor form. Sam Allardyce's men did beat Chelsea a couple of weeks ago but failed to build on that at home to Liverpool last weekend. That game saw them pick up more injury problems with Mohamed Diame now facing a long spell out. George McCartney is also a major doubt for this one, the pair joining a long list of injury absentees which includes Andy Carroll, Yossi Benayoun and Jack Collison. The Hammers have only managed five goals in seven away games thus far and with resources depleted further now, I'm not prepared to side with them at 3/1.

Verdict: West Brom 0 West Ham 0

  • Preview posted at 1245 GMT on 15/12/2012.