Malcolm Boyle's Placepot picks
Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.
His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 1700 GMT the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.
NEWBURY - MARCH 1
Newbury Selections
Race 1 (1.50pm): 11 (Rosslyn Castle), 1 (Handazan) & 8 (Oscan)
Race 2 (2.20pm): 9 (Off The Wall), 6 (Italian Master) & 7 (Loudmouth)
Race 3 (2.55pm): 6 (Sew On Target), 5 (Heez A Cracker) & 7 (Ballywatt)
Race 4 (3.30pm): 13 (Representingceltic) & 2 (Shuil Royale)
Race 5 (4.00pm): 6 (Flaming Charger), 2 (Explained) & 5 (The Mumper)
Race 6 (4.35pm): 4 (Back Bob Back) & 2 (Larks Lad)
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2012: £5.70
2011: £183.80
2010: £157.20
2009: £5.60
2008: £3,018.60
2007: £95.70
2006: £111.30
2005: £69.00
2004: £774.70
2003: £156.30
2002: £27.40
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (11 years) £418.65
Average toteplacepot dividend at Newbury in 2006: £176.11 (10 meetings)-in 2007: £267.26 (12 meetings)--in 2008: £587.98 (31 meetings in total--NH & flat)--in 2009: £60.58 (9 NH meetings)--in 2010: £117.69 (11 NH meetings)--in 2011: £264.14 (12 NH meetings)--in 2012: £269.10 (11 NH meetings)
1.50 I am still suffering I'm afraid (man flu!) though better now than in 10 days' time I guess. The illness did not stop my nap winning at 7/4 in the first race on Thursday however so hoping for more of the same on Friday, I am opting for HANDAZAN who still has a 'Fred Winter' entry at the time of writing. ROSSLYN CASTLE and OSCAN are two interesting newcomers to this code of the sport following reasonable efforts on the level, albeit the latter-named John Ferguson raider has been off the track for well over 16 months.
'Favourite factor': Seven of the last 16 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners. Twelve of the last 14 winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less.
2.20 Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 5-4 via the 10 renewals to date and combined vintage representatives are around the 8/13 mark to extend the domination before the form book is assessed. LOUDMOUTH and OFF THE WALL make most appeal via the 11 representatives, though if there is to a seven-year-old 'spoiler' in the field like last year, THE ITALIAN MASTER fits the bill from the Paul Nicholls yard.
'Favourite factor': Six of the 10 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date (two winners).
2.55 10 of the last 14 winners carried weights of 11-4 or less which suggests that we should not be too keen to dismiss the chance of FIFTY ONE FIFTY ONE at the bottom of the handicap. That said, more logical winners in the line-up include SEW ON TARGET and BALLYWHAT. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to HEEZ A CRACKER.
'Favourite factor': Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last 14 renewals. Nine of the 16 jollies have reached the frame during the study period.
3.30 Eight-year-olds have won five of the 11 renewals to date and all four of this year's vintage representatives have definite toteplacepot chances, with REPRESENTINGCELTIC and SHUIL ROYALE possibly holding call via the relevant quartet. RISK is an interesting declaration from Jeremy Scott's yard down towards the bottom of the handicap.
'Favourite factor': Six of the 12 favourites to date have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners in the last four years). That said, all 12 winners have been returned at odds of 11/1 or less, as have all 29 horses which have claimed toteplacepot positions.
4.00 Eight of the last nine winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more, and the trio that might best represent the 'superior' sector of the handicap consists of FLAMING CHARMER, THE MUMPER and EXPLAINED. The trio is listed in order of preference, hoping that the ground has not dried out too much as all three runners appreciate some moisture in the turf.
'Favourite factor': Seven of the 15 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 13 years, though winning favourites had been conspicuous by their absence before last year's 13/8 market leader obliged. Winners at 25/1--20/1--14/1 have been recorded in the last eight years, while horses filled the frame at 25/1-33/1-50/1-20/1 back in 2004. The relevant tricast dividend was declared in excess of £33,000.
4.35 BACK BOB BACK represents Tom George who saddled the beaten favourite in the first running of the contest 12 months ago (see full details below). The top six horses are separated by just 3lbs which sounds more like a five-furlong sprint on the level as opposed to a two-and-a-half-mile chase at Newbury. The assessor might have finally caught up with Reginaldinho now, whereby I fancy MIDNIGHT TUESDAY and LARKS LAD as the main dangers to BACK BOB BACK, especially as both horses act under drying conditions.
'Favourite factor': Last year's inaugural 5/2 favourite secured a toteplacepot position when picking up the bronze medal behind horses returned at 16/1 and 7/1.
DONCASTER:
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2012: £882.20
2011: £76.80
2010: £104.00
2009: £81.60
2008: £47.70
2005: £78.10
2004: £66.30
2003: £78.90
2002: £6.90
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (9 years) £158.06
Average toteplacepot dividend at Doncaster (NH & flat) in 2008: £1,012.68 (30 meetings in total)--in 2009: £865.40 (8 NH meetings)--in 2010: £371.78 (5 NH meetings)--in 2011: £543.19 (9 NH meetings)--in 2012: £219.04 (8 NH meetings)
LINGFIELD:
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2012: £23.80
2011: £11.10
2010: £24.80
2009: £132.10
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (4 years) £47.95
Average toteplacepot dividend at Lingfield (flat) in 2006: £296.53 (91 meetings)-in 2007: £1,116.95 (98 meetings)--in 2008: £153.68 (90 meetings in total--NH & flat)--in 2009: £224.87 (69 A/W meetings)--in 2010: £205.34 (65 A/W meetings)--in 2011: £159.77 (55 A/W meetings)--in 2012: £393.25 (72 A/W meetings)
WOLVERHAMPTON:
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2012: £18.00
2011: £218.90
2010: £20.90
2009: £197.40
2008: £113.60
2007: £173.40
2006: £287.80
2005: £18.10
2004: £580.90
2003: £310.70
2002: £95.70
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (11 years) £185.03
Average toteplacepot dividend at Wolverhampton in 2006: £379.47 (111 meetings)-in 2007: £499.42 (120 meetings)--2008: £447.58 (100 meetings)--in 2009: £505.07 (94 meetings)--in 2010: £204.35 (96 A/W meetings)--in 2011: £254.21 (100 meetings)--in 2012: £198.75 (110 Placepots via 109 meetings)
Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2013:
Wolverhampton--£8,672.40--Tuesday January 22
Sedgefield--£4,761.40--Friday January 11
Southwell (A/W)--£4,162.50--Tuesday February 5
Southwell (A/W)--£2,164.50--Tuesday February 12
Lingfield (NH)--£1,679.10--Tuesday January 15
Lingfield (A/W)--£1,600.00--Friday January 25
Kempton (NH)--£1,371.50--Friday February 8
Kelso--£1,364.50--Sunday January 12
Wincanton--£1,350.50--Thursday January 31
Southwell (NH)--£1,171.30--Monday February 18
Fakenham--£1,152.20--Friday February 15
Kempton (A/W)--£1,129.40--Monday January 7
Lingfield (A/W)--£1,099.50--Tuesday February 26
Lingfield (A/W)--£1,063.50--Wednesday January 2
Lingfield (A/W)--£1,018.80--Friday February 22
Wolverhampton--£1,009.60--Friday January 11
2013 average toteplacepot dividends (up to and including Wednesday February 27) - A-Z racecourse guide:
A/W venues:
Total A/W meetings (£390.26--78 dividends via 77 meetings)
Kempton (£191.51--15 meetings)
Lingfield (£265.12--26 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£453.59--31 dividends via 30 meetings)
Southwell (£1,180.88--6 meetings)
N/H venues:
Total NH meetings (£245.26--90 meetings)
Ascot (£210.40--1 meeting)
Ayr (£32.87--4 meetings)
Bangor (£136.00--2 meetings)
Carlisle (£265.15--2 meetings)
Catterick (£235.58--5 meetings)
Cheltenham (£60.10--1 meeting)
Chepstow (£74.20--3 meetings)
Doncaster (£128.50--4 meetings)
Exeter (£15.50--2 meetings)
Fakenham (£905.10--2 meetings)
Ffos Las (£174.40--3 meetings)
Fontwell (£92.70--1 meeting)
Haydock (£57.10--1 meeting)
Huntingdon (£47.13--3 meetings)
Kelso (£719.20--2 meetings)
Kempton (£380.65--4 meetings)
Leicester (£82.77--3 meetings)
Lingfield (£374.58--5 meetings)
Ludlow (£105.60--4 meetings)
Market Rasen (£254.10--2 meetings)
Musselburgh (£72.02--4 meetings)
Newbury (£12.95--2 meetings)
Newcastle (£89.05--2 meetings)
Plumpton (£130.63--3 meetings)
Sandown (£236.32--4 meetings)
Sedgefield (£2547.25--2 meetings)
Southwell (£1,171.30--1 meeting)
Taunton (£239.13--3 meetings)
Towcester (£48.55--2 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£61.40--1 meeting)
Warwick (£168.23--3 meetings)
Wetherby (£20.73--3 meetings)
Wincanton (£379.25--5 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£82.10--1 meeting)
The average toteplacepot dividend in 2013 stands at £343.07 (168 dividends via 167 meetings) up to and including Wednesday February 27.
