Value Bet: Worth a second Chance
Ben Linfoot has four Value Bet selections for Friday's card at York, including Chancery for David O'Meara.
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Sole Power is in the form of his life and he heads an all-star cast for Friday’s feature contest, the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes.
It’s four years since he won this race as a three-year-old at 100/1 and he’s been beaten twice in the contest since, when seventh behind Ortensia in 2012 and then when third behind Jwala last year.
The ground wasn’t rattling fast in either of those reverses and that was a key factor in him not getting his head in front. With a bit of rain hitting the Knavesmire again this week, we might not see any ‘Firm’ in the going description again on Friday and that would be to Sole Power’s disadvantage.
They also need to go very fast to play to his strengths in this race, and, while that’s always a possibility, there are enough doubts surrounding his chances to take him on at 3/1.
Take Cover is the obvious one given he’s in top form and goes well at York, but he hasn’t been missed by the layers and 7/1 is an accurate reflection of his chance.
The one that I feel is slightly overpriced is the French-trained challenger RANGALI who makes plenty of appeal at 16/1.
Henri-Alex Pantell’s Namid colt is a rapid improver and he put in a career-best effort on his last start when dropped in trip to five furlongs for the first time.
The race in question was the Group Two Prix du Gros-Chene at Chantilly and he beat last year’s Prix de l’Abbaye runner-up, Catcall, by an easy two lengths.
Friday’s jockey Fabrice Veron waited with him at Chantilly until inside the final quarter mile where he kicked clear from some top-notch rivals in impressive fashion.
Catcall was an odds-on favourite on the back of a victory in Group Three company at Longchamp in May, a race in which he beat Stepper Point by a couple of lengths.
Stepper Point was three lengths behind Rangali at Chantilly too, and he’s a decent marker being such a consistent horse in these top sprints.
He was beaten a length by Sole Power at Newmarket in May, finished virtually the same distance behind the same horse at Royal Ascot and was two lengths behind Take Cover at Goodwood last time.
On a line through Stepper Point, Rangali’s latest form is right up there with the two market leaders and given he’s so unexposed at the trip there could be plenty more to come.
Earlier on, CHANCERY looks well worth a bet in the Sky Bet Transfer Fund Handicap at 10/1.
David O’Meara’s horse won the same race last year off just a 3lb higher mark and he’s got a fine chance of repeating the feat on recent evidence.
I backed him last time at Haydock but he was slowly away and could never get into things over ten furlongs. However, he finished his race well and the handicapper was kind enough to drop him 3lb ahead of his Ebor Festival assignment.
The return to York and the return to a mile and a half are factors in his favour and a bold bid is expected. Only three starts ago he ran a cracker in fifth here in the John Smith’s Cup and this is an easier, if still hugely competitive, race.
O’Meara was reportedly very keen on his chances at the Sky Bet preview evening earlier in the week and 10/1 seems like a very fair price indeed, while if you're quick enough Ladbrokes have 12/1 in their advert prices for the morning.
I also want WIGMORE HALL onside at 10/1 now he’s managed to finish a race with some verve.
His career has taken an alarming turn for the worse but this dual Grade One winner at Woodbine is going to find his new level eventually and the chances are this could be it.
This season he didn’t run a race full of any promise in his first four starts, but he did last time when a neck second to Fattsota in a tight handicap at Newmarket.
He was a little unlucky there, just getting headed late on and he did pull six lengths clear of the third.
Only beaten a neck, he races off a 4lb lower mark on Friday and Mikey Ennis, who was so close to riding Top Notch Tonto to victory on Thursday, takes off another 7lb.
Again, anything double-figures is worth taking and there might be some 12/1 in the morning with Ladbrokes again having him at that price in their adverts.
Finally, William Haggas’ ERTIJAAL is worth backing at 10/1 in the Sky Bet City of York Stakes.
Paul Hanagan will have to bounce back from the low of getting beat on Taghrooda and he’ll have his work cut out on this Oasis Dream colt as he isn’t an easy ride.
He’s been too keen in blinkers on his last two starts, but that headgear is replaced by cheekpieces here where he steps back up to seven furlongs.
This trip at this track in a big field could be perfect for him, and if Hanagan can get him settled in the new headgear he can finally deliver on the promise he showed on his first four starts.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +340.09pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current) 2014 running total +72.28pts.
- Preview posted at 1705 BST 21/08/2014