Value Bet: Max wager
Our Value Bet tipster Ben Linfoot had two winners on Friday and now bids to crack the feature handicap at Glorious Goodwood.
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Different name, same puzzle.
The 32Red Cup (Stewards' Cup) is one of the betting races of the season and this year's renewal is no exception with 28 runners set to hurtle down the six-furlong course on the Sussex Downs.
Muthmir, Discussiontofollow and Intrinsic are fighting for favouritism as I type and that trio are all highly progressive sprinters with last time out wins on their dance card.
Their chances are clear and any one of them could win, but I think there are a couple of interesting horses with similar profiles at much bigger prices that I'd rather be on this Saturday.
The first of those, SIR MAXIMILIAN, won't surprise regular readers as he was advised before winning at Chester and in an ante-post special for the Wokingham Handicap.
- 1pt e.w. Sir Maximilian in 3.50 Goodwood at 25/1 (sportingbet, Ladbrokes) - progressive, well-in and this race should suit ideally
- 1pt e.w. Hoodna in 3.50 Goodwood at 25/1 (sportingbet, 888sport) - strongly-run six should be in her favour after good run at HQ
- 1pt e.w. El Viento in 2.05 Goodwood at 33/1 (Coral) - this is his time of year and he's down to a nice mark at a track he loves
In a heartbreaking sequence of events (for backers like me and connections) he missed out on the Royal Ascot race by one place and was stood in his box as Baccarat won the big pot.
Still, he made up for that last time at the Curragh when winning the Rockingham Handicap when the strong pace allowed him to show his true colours - largely that he's a hugely progressive sprinter on a steep upward curve.
He beat the useful Caspian Prince by a cosy length that day and the 6lb penalty he carries here might not be enough to stop him. Indeed, the official handicapper has raised him to 104 so he's 2lb well-in even with his penalty taken into account.
This fast six furlongs looks right up his street, any watering or showers will be to his benefit and there's pace around him from his middle draw.
Tim Pitt has a proven track record of improving sprinters by a huge amount and I don't think we've seen the best of Sir Maximilian yet. He could well make the grade in pattern company.
All in all, it's very hard to pick holes in his chances and though this is one of the most competitive sprints you'll see all season, at 25/1 Sir Maximilian is the value bet of the week especially with several firms offering five places.
Even taking that into account, one just isn't enough in the Stewards' Cup and I have to have Godolphin's HOODNA on side at the same price.
She's a lightly-raced four-year-old that has improved for the fitting of a hood and she's certainly settling better in her races judging by her third place in the Bunbury Cup.
In fact, she was a bit docile out of the blocks that day but quickly made up ground and travelled sweetly into the contest eventually won by Heaven's Guest (fourth since in International Handicap).
A close second when keen over six furlongs in her two previous appearances, the overriding impression she has given on her last three starts is that she needs a breakneck pace over six to show her best.
She'll get that on Saturday and she's proven recently she can go close off this mark when things haven't been in her favour. Now she gets a strong pace to run at, she's worth siding with.
In the consolation race (32RedSport.com Handicap) it could be EL VIENTO'S turn again and he's worth backing at 33/1.
The six-year-old has developed a habit of peaking at this time of year and he's got himself well handicapped again after five defeats this season.
His last two victories have come in the month of August from marks of 87 and 91, and here he is off 89 with George Chaloner taking another 3lb off.
Another positive is his Goodwood form. He's been third, fifth and seventh in huge-field handicaps off similar or higher marks and his stands' rail draw in 28 is no bad thing either.
Following two good efforts at York and Windsor on his last two starts he looks primed for another big race and he's definitely worth a small each-way interest.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +308.59pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).