Mal Boyle's Placepot picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: October 23 2014, 17:41 BST

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his selections for Friday's meeting at Doncaster.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.

His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 1700 BST the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.

DONCASTER - OCTOBER 24

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2013: £1,581.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners--1 placed--3 unplaced)

1.20 10 of the last 15 scorers have carried weights of 8-13 or less and Ralph Beckett's recent Wolverhampton winner BOLD APPEAL could be an each way/toteplacepot option to take. Beatenh favourites SWAHEEN and (even) PHILBA might be worth another chance in such a weak Nursery event, especially by Doncaster standards.

Favourite factor: Eight of the 18 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via 15 renewals during the last 16 years, statistics which include three winners.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):
3-1-2 (10 ran-soft)
3-1 (5 ran-soft)
8-11-13 (13 ran-good)
7-9-2 (9 ran-good)
20-6-13-5 (19 ran-good to soft)
18-7-16-4 (18 ran-good)
16-7-14-5 (16 ran-good)
7-12-9-1 (17 ran-soft)
3-10-12 (14 ran-soft)
4-12-7 (11 ran-good to firm)
8-4-10 (13 ran-good to soft)
1-10-12 (12 ran-good)
10-7-11 (12 ran-good to soft)
3-9-10 (11 ran-good)

1.50 It's a little difficult to enthuse too wildly about YARROW given Sir Michael Stoute's weak 17% strike rate with his juveniles this year, though I only use the word given Michael's great record down the years with his juveniles. The market should tell us plenty, though with newcomers not appearing to be as strong as one would normally expect at Doncaster, STAR OF SEVILLE and DREAMLIKE might offer most resistance on this occasion.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 17 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 15 years (five winners). Three of the last 13 winners have scored at 100/1—33/1—14/1, whilst a 9/1 chance won one of the divisions three years ago.

2.20 I find Doncaster maiden events almost as tough as at any track in the country and this is a race to swerve away from aside from our favourite toteplacepot wager in my book. I could go on all day about pedigrees and potential but luck plays a big part in which horse is going to get the run of the race, whereby I will simply opt for BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE, STRIDING OUT, and NAMHROODAH as far as the newcomers are concerned. FIGMENT arguably sets the standard via the experienced horses in the line up, given that Crystal Malt has had so many chances now.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same stats apply.

2.55 Horses drawn six or higher have secured 10 of the last 13 renewals of this contest, as have runners who have claimed 18 of the additional 27 available toteplacepot positions. THAHAB (8/18) has been something of a 'talking horse' before he has set foot on the racecourse and the stall stats just about put him in the mix, though whether there will be any value In supporting Richard Hannon's Dubawi colt remains to be seen. Others for the overnight mix include TRUE RESPECT (16), PENANG PAPARAJA (17) and COULOURFILLY (9). Last year's 25/1 winner End Of Line was mentioned in despacthes.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders, two joint and one co favourite have scored via the last 18 renewals, whilst 17 of the 23 ‘jollies’ have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):
11-15-3 (14 ran-soft)
4-5-15 (14 ran-soft) 6-4-3 (16 ran-good) 20-13-19 (18 ran-good) 2-14-8 (15 ran-good) 12-10-5 (13 ran-good) 10-6-14 (15 ran-good) 6-13-12 (14 ran-good) 14-9-1 (12 ran-good) 2-1-14 (14 ran-soft) 10-8-12 (14 ran-soft) 13-2-14 (13 ran-soft) 10-3-6 (13 ran-soft) 3-5-8 (16 ran-good to firm) 7-6-10 (12 ran-good to soft) 11-6-2 (12 ran-good to soft) 1-6-8 (12 ran-heavy) 5-1-9 (12 ran-heavy) 22-16-18 (22 ran-good)

3.30 Horses carrying weights of 8-13 or less have secured 21 of the 26 available toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include six of the seven winners at 20/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-8/1-7/1. Unfortunately this year , we have a better class of race whereby just one horse (Love Island) qualifies via the trends! Richard Whitaker's raider has a lot to do via the form book, whereby my 'short list' against the remaining 18 contenders consists of ECCLESTON, FOXTROT ROMEO, FAIRWEAY TO HEAVEN and course and distance winner KHUBALA.

Favourite factor: Before last year, all three favourites had finished out with the washing until the last three market leaders secured toteplacepot positions without winning their relevant events. Last year's 6/1 market leader missed out on a toteplacepot position.

Draw factor (six furlongs):
22-4-20-6 (21 ran-soft)
18-15-10-16 (19 ran-soft) 20-10-6-17 (22 ran-good) 17-20-6-16 (21 ran-good) 4-1-12-13 (18 ran-good) 16-2-13-21 (19 ran-good) 21-2-3-9 (22 ran-good)

2.10 Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 10-4 via 15 renewals during the last 17 years and the trend could continue here via the likes of the junior raiders MIN ALEMARAT, MOONTIME and SPECTATOR. The four-year-olds might be led home by NIGHT CROSS. Last year's four-year-old call was White Nile who obliged at 5/1. ZIPP was beaten a short head in the race last year when sent off as the 4/1 favourite.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have won via the last 13 renewals during the last 14 years, whilst just four other market leaders have additionally claimed toteplacepot positions during the reduced study period. 10 of the last 12 winners have won at 33/1-20/1-20/1-14/1-12/1-8/1-15/2-7/1-11/2-5/1.

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Friday

5--Ralph Beckett
5--Sir Michael Stoute
4--David Simcock
3--Clive Cox
3--Luca Cumani
3--Mick Easterby
3--Brian Ellison
3--Richard Hannon
3--Saeed Bin Suroor
3--Alan Swinbank
2--Michael Appleby
2--Michael Bell
2--Mel Brittain
2--David Brown
2--Karl Burke
2--Michael Dods
2--Ed Dunlop
2--Tim Easterby
2--David Elsworth
2--James Fanshawe
2--John Gosden
2--Richard Guest
2--Mark Johnstone
2--David O'Meara
2--Kevin Ryan
2--Olly Stevens
2--Chris Wall
1--Charlie Appleby
1--Andrew Balding
1--David Barron
1--James Bethell
1--Marco Botti
1--David Bridgwater
1--Mick Channon
1--Peter Chapple-Hyam
1--Roger Charlton
1--Keith Dalgleish
1--Tom Dascombe
1--Seamus Durack
1--Richard Fahey
1--Kevin Frost
1--James Given
1--William Haggas
1--Alex Hales
1--Shaun Harris
1--Peter Hedger
1--Charlie Hills
1--Iain Jardine
1--Bernard Lllewllyn
1--John Mackie
1--Brian Meehan
1--Clive Mulhall
1--Hogo Palmer
1--Ben Pauling
1--James Tate
1--Nigel Tinkler
1--Edwin Tuer
1--Roger Varian
1--Ed Walker
1--Ian Williams

102 declared runners

2014 average toteplacepot returns thus far (1126 meetings):
Favourites failing to reach the frame in all six races: £18,825.73 (4)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,053.80 (30)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,019.70 (131)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £505.74 (309)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £189.25 (351)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £73.77 (253)
All 6 Placepot races with at least one favourite in the frame: £15.67 (108)

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2014:
Cheltenham--£44,616.30--Friday March 14
Pontefract--£26,272.90--Tuesday April 8
Sandown--£20,601.40--Saturday July 5
Redcar--£9,925.20--Tuesday September 9
Warwick (NH)--£6,946.60--Sunday March 9
Ripon--£6,876.30--Saturday August 16
Doncaster (flat)--£6,810.90--Saturday August 16
Redcar--£5,730.00--Wednesday July 30
Bath--£5,358.00--Sunday October 19
Wolverhampton--£5,122.30--Friday April 11
Southwell (NH)--£4,820.20--Thursday January 22
Chester--£4,495.50--Saturday September 13
Hamilton--£4,433.40--Friday August 22
Brighton--£4,086.10--Tuesday October 7
Wolverhampton--£3,703.10--Friday October 17
Doncaster (flat)--£3,701.90--Friday April 25
Lingfield (Mix Turf/AW)--£3,620.50--Saturday June 28
Newmarket (Rowley Mile)--£3,201.20--Saturday October 11
Wetherby--£3,148.90--Thursday May 29
York--£3,065.20--Friday August 22
Bath--£3,032.20--Friday August 1
York--£2,892.80--Saturday June 14
Wincanton--£2,871.50--Thursday May 8
Yarmouth--£2,868.90--Monday April 21
Newmarket--£2,867.90--Thursday July 11
Fontwell--£2,743.60--Tuesday June 10
Salisbury--£2,701.70--Wednesday October 1
Stratford--£2,571.90--Saturday March 22
Uttoxeter--£2,507.80--Thursday June 12
Newmarket (July)--£2,433.40--Saturday August 2
Cheltenham--£2,414.40--Thursday April 17
Windsor--£2,390.20--Monday August 4
Fontwell--£2,374.70--Friday May 2
Lingfield (A/W)--£2,320.10--Saturday March 22
Yarmouth--£2,176.60--Sunday August 24
Hamilton--£2,172.70--Monday September 29
Stratford--£2,142.70--Tuesday July 1
Catterick (NH)--£2,105.50--Wednesday January 1
Bath--£2,090.60--Wednesday June 25
Brighton--£2,008.10--Thursday August 7
Doncaster (Flat)--£2,002.40--Sunday March 30

Flat Turf venues:
Total Flat Turf meetings (£489.68--542 meetings)
Ascot (£258.13--18 meetings)
Ayr (£381.11--17 meetings)
Bath (£684.39--20 meetings)
Beverley (£480.05--18 meetings)
Brighton (£420.29--21 meetings)
Carlisle (£444.66--13 meetings)
Catterick (£162.63--16 meetings)
Chepstow (£123.17--13 meetings)
Chester (£494.12--15 meetings)
Doncaster (£799.34--21 meetings)
Epsom (£124.13--11 meetings)
Ffos Las (£749.04--6 meetings)
Goodwood (£173.37--19 meetings)
Hamilton (£535.59--18 meetings)
Haydock (£290.92--23 meetings)
Leicester (£122.58--20 meetings)
Lingfield (£877.00--1 meeting)
Musselburgh (£348.31--17 meetings)
Newbury (£200.25--15 meetings)
Newcastle (£156.80--17 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile) (£449.36--15 meetings)
Newmarket (July) (£539.74--22 meetings)
Nottingham (£299.50--20 meetings)
Pontefract (£2,048.55--15 meetings)
Redcar (£1,361.64--16 meetings)
Ripon (£543.89--16 meetings)
Salisbury (£410.92--15 meetings)
Sandown (£1,560.04--16 meetings)
Thirsk (£269.33--15 meetings)
Warwick (£58.70--6 meetings--only two races contested at the May 20 meeting)
Windsor (£241.73--26 meetings)
Yarmouth (£435.90--23 meetings)
York (£867.35--16 meetings)

Mixed Turf and All-weather venues:
Lingfield (£290.98--15 meetings)

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£209.49--242 meetings)
Kempton (£104.13--65 meetings)
Kempton NH Bumper (£134.05--2 meetings)
Lingfield (£169.45--62 meetings)
Lingfield NH Bumper (£27.70--1 meeting)
Southwell (£142.79--39 meetings)
Southwell NH Bumper (£17.00--1 meeting)
Wolverhampton (£273.62--71 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£421.17--395 meetings)
Aintree (£565.72--5 meetings)
Ascot (£144.23--3 meetings)
Ayr (£360.01--8 meetings)
Bangor (£284.31--9 meetings)
Carlisle (£481.18--7 meetings)
Cartmel (£126.89--7 meetings)
Catterick (£375.36--7 meetings)
Cheltenham (£4,566.48--11 meetings)
Chepstow (£165.80--9 meetings)
Doncaster (£290.41--7 meetings)
Exeter (£283.94--9 meetings)
Fakenham (£160.26--7 meetings)
Ffos Las (£350.94--12 meetings)
Fontwell (£428.69--15 meetings)
Haydock (£817.85--4 meetings)
Hexham (£279.03--11 meetings)
Huntingdon (£144.76--12 meetings)
Kelso (£305.54--10 meetings)
Kempton (£130.97--7 meetings)
Leicester (£382.19--5 meetings)
Ludlow (£101.21--9 meetings)
Market Rasen (£95.60--16 meetings)
Musselburgh (£372.37--6 meetings)
Newbury (£209.60--6 meetings)
Newcastle (£454.85--6 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£203.77--18 meetings)
Perth (£262.16--16 meetings)
Plumpton (£266.93--9 meetings)
Sandown (£205.02--4 meetings)
Southwell (£510.18--15 meetings)
Sedgefield (£191.32--15 meetings)
Stratford (£384.92--15 meetings)
Taunton (£144.18--9 meetings)
Towcester (£103.16--11 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£285.81--16 meetings)
Warwick (£1,107.42--7 meetings)
Wetherby (£355.24--11 meetings)
Wincanton (£405.46--11 meetings)
Worcester (£180.51--20 meetings)

Mixed Flat and NH venues:
Ffos Las (£168.90--1 meeting)
Haydock (£311.40--1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2014 stands at £411.08 (1186 meetings) up to and including Wednesday October 22