Mal Boyle's Placepot picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: May 5 2015, 12:22 BST

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his analysis ahead of this evenings's card at Catterick.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of How To Win at the Tote Placepot and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of racing's most popular pool bet.

He'll post his overnight Placepot analysis here around 1700 BST each day with final selections published at approximately 1000 BST on race day.

Catterick Selections

Race 1 (6.00pm): 4 (Secret Clause), 1 (Be Bop Tango) & 5 (Mistymoistymorning)
Race 2 (6.30pm): 2 (Stepping Ahead) & 1 (Jacobs Son)
Race 3 (7.00pm): 8 (Spirit Of Wedza) & 10 (Our Time Will Come)
Race 4 (7.30pm): 12 (Conry), 13 (Old Man Clegg) & 8 (Piceno)
Race 5 (8.00pm): 9 (Downtown Boy), 4 (El Massivo) & 1 (Jan Smuts)
Race 6 (8.30pm): 6 (Threes Grand), 3 (Lady Poppy) & 5 (Windforpower)

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2014: £20.40 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

6.00 Michael Appleby saddled last year's winner whereby the 14/1 quote in the trade press about Michael's Sakhee's Secret March foal SECRET CLAUSE catches the eye at the overnight stage. MISTYMOISTYMORNING ran well enough at Southwell first time but this is a different examination entirely whereby the 11/4 quote by comparison looks skinny enough, for all that the March foal represents Mark Johnston. It's worth noting that all Mark's eleven two-year-olds were beaten at Beverely last year. SCARLET PURSIUTS and the very late (April 29) foal BE BOP TANGO are others to note.

'Favourite factor': Eight of the 11 favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three of the last eight winners. Seven of the last eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

6.30 Five-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals, whilst seven of the last eight gold medallists were burdened with a maximum weight of nine stones. The two horses which qualify via the weight trend appear to have it all to do this time around whereby the lone five-year-old STEPPING AHEAD stands out from the crowd. JACOBS SON and LEXINGTON BAY are taken to follow the selection home.

'Favourite factor': Six of the last 10 market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners. Nine of the 10 winners have been sent off at 9/1 or less.

7.00 Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 5-2 following just the seven renewals to date, whilst younger representatives have secured 14 of the 20 available toteplacepot positions. The pick of the junior representatives (three-year-olds are 5/6 to secure the race before the form book is taken into account) should hopefully prove to be SPIRIT OF WEDZA ahead of OUR TIME WILL COME. Four-year-old VECHEKA appears to be the biggest threat to the vintage trends.

'Favourite factor': All six favourites have finished in the frame, though just two (4/5 & 1/7) market leaders have prevailed from a win perspective alongside one ’jolly’ which was withdrawn from the contest before a new market could be formed. The shortest priced remaining contender finished in the frame, much to the relief of investors who has banked on the un-named favourite from a toteplacepot perspective.

7.30 Six of the last nine winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, whilst the biggest priced winner to date was sent off at 8/1. Six-year-olds have secured three of the last six renewals. That’s the stats and facts put to bed, hoping that last year's winner CONRY can lead OLD MAN CLEGG home as far as the bottom weights are concerned. Six-year-old STONEFIELD FLYER is the only vintage representative on this occasion.

'Favourite factor': Three of the nine favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, with just one successful (2/1) market leader having been recorded to date.

Recent draw details--seven furlongs): 1-11-6 (11 ran-good-last year) 5-3 (6 ran-good to firm) 10-7-3 (11 ran-good to soft) 3-9-1 (10 ran-good to firm) 2-5 (7 ran-firm) 6-13-11 (10 ran-good to firm) 4-1-3 (12 ran-good) 12-10-11 (10 ran-firm) 3-7-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

8.00 The last seven winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more, statistics which unfortunately only eliminates the bottom four (five via a claim) horses in the handicap from my viewpoint. Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that the 2013 winner JAN SMUTS, DOWNTOWN BOY and (possibly) COOL BARANCA should figure prominently. Five-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick whereby EL MASSIVO is added to the overnight mix.

'Favourite factor': Eight renewals have slipped by since a favourite won this event during which time, just three of the nine market leaders have secured a toteplacepot position.

8.30 All eight winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less and taking the stats and facts into consideration, my overnight short list consists of LADY POPPY, WINDFORPOWER and THREES GRAND. WINDFORPOWER (fourth in this race twelve months ago at 12/1) seemingly has to put his head in front right on the line to win, though that 'quirk' has not stopped him from winning nine times to date.

'Favourite factor': Seven of the 11 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via nine renewals, statistics which include three successful favourites.

** = joint favourite; *** = co-favourite (where applicable).

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Tuesday

3--Scott Dixon
3--Tracy Waggott
2--Michael Appleby
2--Maurice Barnes
2--Karl Burke
2--Andrew Crook
2--Mick Easterby
2--Brian Ellison
2--Richard Fahey
2--Micky Hammond
2--Shaun Harris
2--Mark Johnston
2--David O'Meara
2--Ollie Pears
2--Dianne Sayer
2--David Thompson
1--James Bethwell
1--Ruth Carr
1--Ray Craggs
1--Keith Dalgleish
1--Michael Dods
1--Ann Duffield
1--Tim Easterby
1--Marjorie Fife
1--Paul Green
1--Patrick Holmes
1--Tina Jackson
1--Iain Jardine
1--Malcolm Jefferson
1--Paul Midgley
1--James Moffat
1--George Moore
1--Clive Mulhall
1--Peter Niven
1--Miss Imogen Pickard
1--John Quinn
1--Henry Spiller
1--Wilf Storey
1--Alan Swinbank
1--Karen Tutty
1--Richard Whitaker
1--Ian Williams

60 declared runners

2015 average toteplacepot returns thus far (435 meetings):
One meeting with no favourites in the frame: £1,196.50 (1)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,951.18 (12)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,037.77 (37)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £478.78 (125)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £190.28 (142)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £66.09 (88)
6 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £20.42 (30)

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Flat venues:
Total Flat meetings (£474.63--52 meetings)
Ascot (£143.80--1 meeting)
Ayr (£779.60--1 meeting)
Bath (£112.55--2 meetings)
Beverley (£75.65--2 meetings)
Brighton (£451.80--2 meetings)
Catterick (£1.122.25--2 meetings)
Chepstow (£7.40--1 meeting)
Doncaster (£613.77--5 meetings)
Epsom (£78.90--1 meeting)
Goodwood (£257.60--1 meeting)
Hamilton (£1,143.80--1 meeting)
Haydock (£801.60--1 meeting)
Leicester (£1,089.10--2 meetings)
Musselburgh (£1,472.60--3 meetings)
Newbury (£68.85--2 meetings)
Newcastle (£1,504.20--2 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile)--£195.50--4 meetings)
Nottingham (£557.30--3 meetings)
Pontefract (£103.73--3 meetings)
Redcar (£88.46--3 meetings)
Ripon (£217.15--2 meetings)
Salisbury (£17.50--1 meeting)
Sandown (£682.50--1 meeting)
Thirsk (£161.65--2 meetings)
Wetherby (£29.70--1 meeting)
Windsor (£205.13--3 meetings)

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£349.73--149 meetings)
Chelmsford (£416.16--22 meetings)
Kempton (£240.64--21 meetings)
Lingfield (£523.13--36 meetings)
Southwell (£430.74--25 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£184.50--45 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£326.81--234 meetings)
Aintree (£516.60--3 meetings)
Ascot (£264.97--3 meetings)
Ayr (£413.90--9 meetings)
Bangor (£1,949.31--6 meetings)
Carlisle (£126.92--5 meetings)
Catterick (£95.21--6 meetings)
Cheltenham (£257.30--9 meetings)
Chepstow (£318.67--9 meetings)
Doncaster (£161.87--6 meetings)
Exeter (£456.53--9 meetings)
Fakenham (£144.62--7 meetings)
Ffos Las (£125.07--7 meetings)
Fontwell (£66.21--6 meetings)
Haydock (£469.17--4 meetings)
Hexham (£139.23--4 meetings)
Huntingdon (£110.49--7 meetings)
Kelso (£89.55--5 meetings)
Kempton (£78.62--6 meetings)
Leicester (£82.10--5 meetings)
Lingfield (£85.65--2 meetings)
Ludlow (£131.44--8 meetings)
Market Rasen (£326.29--6 meetings)
Musselburgh (£98.40--6 meetings)
Newbury (£153.73--7 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£354.25--4 meetings)
Newcastle (£201.99--7 meetings)
Perth (£154.33--3 meetings)
Plumpton (£299.00--9 meetings)
Sandown (£321.09--6 meetings)
Sedgefield (£61.03--8 meetings)
Southwell (£28.80--5 meetings)
Stratford (£356.90--4 meetings)
Taunton (£248.98--12 meetings)
Towcester (£75.14--5 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£1,253.25--5 meetings)
Warwick (£1,476.67--7 meetings)
Wetherby (£879.33--6 meetings)
Wincanton (£689.86--8 meetings)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2015 stands at £355.43 (435 meetings) up to and including Sunday May 3