Mal Boyle's Placepot picks

  • By: Mal Boyle
  • Last Updated: December 21 2014, 14:47 GMT

Our Placepot expert Mal Boyle reveals his analysis ahead of Monday's meeting at Kempton Park.

Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.

His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 1700 GMT the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.

KEMPTON – DECEMBER 22

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2013: N/A (This is a new meeting)

1.15 The represented trainers 'boast' an aggregate strike rate of just 9.4% via 5/53 figures during the last fortnight. Only three of the 11 trainers have saddled winners, namely Ralph Beckett (AZURE AMOUR). Clive Cox (TRIKASANA) and Anthony Carson (MY MISTRESS). DUTCH FREDIE G might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

1.45 GANNICUS could emerge as the each way play with Brendan Powell having saddled two of his last six runners to winning effect. Compare those figures to the aggregate ratio of 4/107 during the last fortnight and you might understand where I am coming from. One can only suppose that the northern based trainers fancy their horses (travelling all the way from Yorkshire) whereby WOODBRIDGE (Richard Fahey) and NEXT STOP (David Nicholls) are feared most.

2.20 MADE WITH LOVE finished second in the 'Wood Ditton' at Newmarket this year before occupying the same position when made a 2/11 chance to go one better in June. Not seen on the racecourse subsequently, John Gosden appears to have found an ideal opportunity for his Exceed And Excel colt to score at the third time of asking. The main dangers (seemingly) include BELAHODOOD and RUBAN.

2.50 Only Ed Walker (GRACEFILLY) and Michael Easterby (DAY OF THE EAGLE) have saddled winners during the last two weeks, the other handlers 'boasting' a ratio of 0/29 during the period. The two horses are automatically included in my toteplacepot permutation accordingly, with course and distance winners SOFTLY SHE TREADS and THANE OF CAWDOR vying for positions in the overnight list.

3.20 David Dennis is progressing well as a trainer in the NH sector, whilst the Worcestershire based handler has saddled three winners on the level this year. David has offered the green light to his course and distance winner (and beaten favourite) FOOTSTEPSINTHERAIN, with connections probably having most to fear from BURNING BLAZE and hat trick seeker DON'T BE on this occasion. PALACE MOON is nothing like the force of old which is just as well for connections of his rivals here. Any semblance of his previous ability would (respectfully) blow this lot away with the minimum of fuss.

3.50 In form trainers Clive Cox and Olly Stevens are represented by STRATEGIC FORCE and LADY BRIGID respectively and I doubt if both horses will finish out of the frame in this grade/company. Should that scenario unfold however, WHALEWEIGH STATION could emerge as a live outsider, especially now that the John Jenkins raider is visored for the first time. It only remains for me to wish my loyal readers very merry Christmas until Kempton's Boxing Day analysis appears on Christmas Eve (latest).

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Monday

4--Gary Moore
3--Lee Carter
3--Luke Dace
2--Michael Attwater
2--Michael Blanshard
2--Jane Chapple-Hyam
2--Clive Cox
2--David Dennis
2--Simon Dow
2--Miss Joey Ellis
2--Richard Fahey
2--Eve Johnson Houghton
2--Roger Ingram
2--Sarah Humphrey
2--Brendan Powell
2--Olly Stevens
2--Marcus Tregoning
2--Joseph Tuite
2--Ian Williams
1--Andrew Balding
1--Ralph Beckett
1--James Bennett
1--John Berry
1--John Best
1--John Butler
1--Tony Carroll
1--Anthony Carson
1--Paul D'Arcy
1--Zoe Davison
1--Geoff Deacon
1--Conor Dore
1--Clive Drew
1--Mick Easterby
1--David Flood
1--Jimmy Fox
1--Kevin Frost
1--John Gosden
1--Richard Guest
1--Polly Gundry
1--William Haggas
1--Richard Hannon
1--Ron Harris
1--Dean Ivory
1--John Jenkins
1--William Knight
1--Natalie Lloyd-Beavis
1--Charlie Longsdon
1--Shaun Lycett
1--Phil McBride
1--Rod Millman
1--Robert Mills
1--Neil Mulholland
1--David Nicholls
1--Pat Phelan
1--Jonathan Portman
1--Sir Mark Prescott
1--Noel Quinlan
1--Derek Shaw
1--John Spearing
1--Eugene Stanford
1--Ed Vaughan
1--Ed Walker
1--Stuart Williams

86 declared runners

2014 average toteplacepot returns thus far (1399 meetings):
Favourites failing to reach the frame in all six races: £13,515.85 (6)
1 race with at least one favourite in the frame: £1,279.94 (32)
2 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £973.17 (148)
3 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £487.96 (371)
4 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £194.76 (416)
5 races with at least one favourite in the frame: £70.02 (301)
All 6 Placepot races with at least one favourite in the frame: £15.43 (125)

All references to placed horses on these pages are based on an exact science regarding general place terms offered by bookmakers and totepool.com

Biggest toteplacepot dividends in 2014:
Cheltenham--£44,616.30--Friday March 14
Pontefract--£26,272.90--Tuesday April 8
Sandown--£20,601.40--Saturday July 5
Redcar--£9,925.20--Tuesday September 9
Wetherby--£8,998.70--Friday October 31
Warwick (NH)--£6,946.60--Sunday March 9
Ripon--£6,876.30--Saturday August 16
Doncaster (flat)--£6,810.90--Saturday August 16
Redcar--£5,730.00--Wednesday July 30
Bath--£5,358.00--Sunday October 19
Wolverhampton--£5,122.30--Friday April 11
Southwell (NH)--£4,820.20--Thursday January 22
Warwick--£4,655.30--Thursday December 11
Chester--£4,495.50--Saturday September 13
Redcar--£4,473.30--Tuesday November 4
Hamilton--£4,433.40--Friday August 22
Brighton--£4,199.50--Monday December 1
Brighton--£4,086.10--Tuesday October 7
Wolverhampton--£3,703.10--Friday October 17
Doncaster (flat)--£3,701.90--Friday April 25
Lingfield (Mix Turf/AW)--£3,620.50--Saturday June 28
Newmarket (Rowley Mile)--£3,201.20--Saturday October 11
Wetherby--£3,148.90--Thursday May 29
York--£3,065.20--Friday August 22
Bath--£3,032.20--Friday August 1
York--£2,892.80--Saturday June 14
Wincanton--£2,871.50--Thursday May 8
Yarmouth--£2,868.90--Monday April 21
Newmarket--£2,867.90--Thursday July 11
Fontwell--£2,743.60--Tuesday June 10
Salisbury--£2,701.70--Wednesday October 1
Southwell (A/W)--£2,677.90--Thursday December 18
Stratford--£2,571.90--Saturday March 22
Uttoxeter--£2,507.80--Thursday June 12
Newmarket (July)--£2,433.40--Saturday August 2
Cheltenham--£2,414.40--Thursday April 17
Windsor--£2,390.20--Monday August 4
Fontwell--£2,374.70--Friday May 2
Lingfield (A/W)--£2,320.10--Saturday March 22
Yarmouth--£2,176.60--Sunday August 24
Hamilton--£2,172.70--Monday September 29
Stratford--£2,142.70--Tuesday July 1
Catterick (NH)--£2,105.50--Wednesday January 1
Bath--£2,090.60--Wednesday June 25
Kempton (A/W)--£2,044.20--Thursday October 23
Brighton--£2,008.10--Thursday August 7
Doncaster (Flat)--£2,002.40--Sunday March 30

All-weather venues:
Total A/W meetings (£230.30--308 meetings)
Kempton (£126.85--86 meetings)
Kempton NH Bumper (£134.05--2 meetings)
Lingfield (£181.98--74 meetings)
Lingfield NH Bumper (£27.70--1 meeting)
Southwell (£195.18--48 meetings)
Southwell NH Bumper (£17.00--1 meeting)
Wolverhampton (£304.24--94 meetings)

National Hunt venues:
Total NH meetings (£391.31--527 meetings)
Aintree (£443.16--8 meetings)
Ascot (£107.82--8 meetings)
Ayr (£330.61--11 meetings)
Bangor (£250.25--12 meetings)
Carlisle (£315.24--12 meetings)
Cartmel (£126.89--7 meetings)
Catterick (£340.20--9 meetings)
Cheltenham (£3,171.02--16 meetings)
Chepstow (£148.13--13 meetings)
Doncaster (£288.51--11 meetings)
Exeter (£264.41--14 meetings)
Fakenham (£171.02--10 meetings)
Ffos Las (£297.44--16 meetings)
Fontwell (£362.44--19 meetings)
Haydock (£533.68--7 meetings)
Hexham (£360.54--14 meetings)
Huntingdon (£122.27--15 meetings)
Kelso (£291.00--11 meetings)
Kempton (£113.04--9 meetings)
Leicester (£237.73--9 meetings)
Lingfield (£126.87--3 meetings)
Ludlow (£110.90--14 meetings)
Market Rasen (£156.95--19 meetings)
Musselburgh (£260.48--10 meetings)
Newbury (£338.98--10 meetings)
Newcastle (£333.09--10 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£203.77--18 meetings)
Perth (£262.16--16 meetings)
Plumpton (£281.65--13 meetings)
Sandown (£529.72--7 meetings)
Sedgefield (£204.95--19 meetings)
Southwell (£491.65--19 meetings)
Stratford (£346.15--17 meetings)
Taunton (£110.34--13 meetings)
Towcester (£908.78--15 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£249.92--21 meetings)
Warwick (£1,028.89--10 meetings)
Wetherby (£846.38--16 meetings)
Wincanton (£324.99--15 meetings)
Worcester (£190.23--21 meetings)

Mixed Flat and NH venues:
Ffos Las (£168.90--1 meeting)
Haydock (£311.40--1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend in 2014 stands at £397.02 (1399 meetings) up to and including Saturday December 20